RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, aligning with other forecasters who have revised expectations downward amid the Iran war.
World oil demand will rise by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, OPEC said, down from 1.38 million bpd expected previously.
The group said demand is expected to recover later, however, and raised its growth outlook for 2027.
OPEC said global oil demand is projected to average 104.57 million bpd in the second quarter, down from 105.07 million bpd forecast last month. The previous report had already cut the estimate by 500,000 bpd.
For 2027, the group expects oil demand to rise by 1.54 million bpd, an upward revision of 200,000 bpd from its previous projection. OPEC+, which includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia, had agreed to gradually restore output from April, but disruptions linked to the closure of Hormuz have made those plans difficult to implement. The report also noted that oil output declined further in April.
OPEC projects US economic growth at 2.2 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. It also raised its forecast for China’s growth to 4.6 percent in 2026, up from 4.5 percent previously, while keeping its 2027 forecast unchanged at 4.5 percent.
