How to bring the region closer to peace in 2025

Even by the turbulent standards of the Middle East, 2024 was earth-shattering in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon and the West Bank. In Gaza, tens of thousands were killed and millions made homeless. Impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity emboldened perpetrators to commit ever more gruesome atrocities. In Syria, Bashar Assad was forced to flee after a disastrous 24-year rule capped by a bloody 13-year civil war. In Lebanon, Israel decimated Hezbollah’s leadership and weakened its grip on power. Consistent with Israel’s indiscriminate battle doctrine, there was a huge civilian toll.
The most catastrophic event in 2024 was the killing fields of Gaza and this looks set to continue into 2025. More than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed there since October 2023, mostly women and children. About 100,000 more have been injured, some maimed. Many others are missing or buried under the rubble of their destroyed homes.
In October, the World Health Organization estimated that more than 6 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million had been either killed or injured.
The UN estimates that nearly 70 percent of Gaza’s water and sanitation plants have been destroyed or damaged. That includes all five of the territory’s wastewater treatment facilities, plus desalination plants, sewage pumping stations, wells and reservoirs. Nearly all of Gaza’s inhabitants have been forcibly displaced, some multiple times.
Having taken control of all entry points into the Gaza Strip, Israel has severely impeded the flow of aid. For example, out of the 91 attempts the UN made to deliver aid to the besieged north of Gaza between Oct. 6 and Nov. 25, 82 were denied and nine impeded. The conditions for survival are diminishing for the 65,000 to 75,000 people estimated to remain in the north. Starvation has already taken a toll in many parts of Gaza and famine is looming.

The most catastrophic event in 2024 was the killing fields of Gaza and this looks set to continue into 2025.

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

In addition to deliberately starving the Palestinians of Gaza and forcibly displacing them en masse, which are war crimes under the Geneva Conventions, Israel has engaged in other grave breaches of international humanitarian law, including indiscriminate bombing and the targeting of unarmed civilians, hospitals, schools, refugee camps and shelters. It is for these and other war crimes and crimes against humanity that the International Criminal Court in November issued warrants to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu and populated by some of the basest ministers Israel and the region have ever had, engaged in this genocidal campaign because it was assured by the full support of the US. Although the Biden administration frequently voiced disagreement with some of Netanyahu’s extreme tactics, it continued to support him materially and shield him from UN censure.
President Joe Biden, the consummate politician who has spent more than 50 years in politics, failed to use his tremendous leverage to temper Israel’s unhinged behavior in Gaza, let alone bring a halt to the war. His administration also failed to persuade Israel to allow aid to flow to starving Palestinians.
It was argued that it would be difficult for Biden to discipline Israel during the US election campaign. But once the elections were over, the administration continued its lackadaisical approach of letting Israel off the hook every time the UN tried to improve the situation inside Gaza.
Many have argued that Biden still has enough time and power to do the right thing before he leaves office on Jan. 20. Jonah Blank, now with the RAND Corporation, served for 10 years as a Biden adviser. He wrote that there are three steps Biden could take during his final weeks in office that would “mitigate Palestinian suffering and preserve the possibility of a two-state solution — which would also be the best way to solidify Israel’s security in the long run.”
First, he should recognize Palestinian statehood. Second, he should sponsor a resolution on a two-state solution at the UN Security Council. Third, he should enforce existing US legislation on arms transfers. These three actions are within Biden’s executive authority and could change the course of the crisis in the Middle East, “which is hurtling toward catastrophe,” as Blank made clear.
Such actions could salvage Biden’s legacy, which is now marred not only by the failure of his Middle East policy but also his contribution to the Democratic Party losing the presidential and congressional elections. This was one of the most pivotal moments of 2024.
According to US election experts, Biden’s initial insistence on running for reelection, against the better judgment of Democratic Party elders, led to that loss. After his disastrous performance in the presidential debate with Donald Trump, Biden was urged to relinquish his bid for a second term. He reluctantly agreed, but it was too late to salvage the Democratic Party’s election campaign.
The Democrats blamed him for their resounding defeat as the Republicans, led by Trump, trounced them everywhere to get what might be called — in the language of racing — a trifecta or even a superfecta. Republicans convincingly flipped the White House and the Senate and retained their majority in the House of Representatives. They already had a solid majority in the Supreme Court, thus rounding out the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government. From Jan. 20, they will be in a position to change the face of the federal government for a long time.
For at least the next four years, America’s allies, partners and adversaries need to deal with this changed landscape in Washington. But for the next few weeks, Biden is in control and he can make history if he chooses to do so. A permanent ceasefire is needed in Gaza to start the process of rebuilding and reunifying the Strip with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority, instead of breakaway factions.
In addition to the Gaza war, there are other crises that the White House needs to address during the weeks leading up to Trump’s inauguration to make sure that there are no gaps in US regional policy on the changing of the guard at the White House and Congress. They include the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Fortunately, in each of these four crises, there is consensus on what needs to be done and UNSC resolutions to go by.
First and most urgent is the crisis in the West Bank, where the Israeli government and settlers have increased their attacks on Palestinians with the clear aim of driving them off their land. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and their homes and farms destroyed or burned down.
Clearly, the only way to defuse the West Bank crisis is through ending the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. Already, about 150 countries have recognized Palestine as a state and there is a clear consensus on the parameters of this solution in UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative.
In September, Saudi Arabia, together with Norway, the Arab League and the EU, launched the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two-State Solution. The first meeting of the alliance was held in Riyadh on Oct. 30 and attended by 90 states and organizations, while the second meeting was held in Brussels on Nov. 28 and the third is planned for January in Oslo. The US took part in these meetings and expressed support for the alliance. It needs to do more to persuade Israel to join.
Second, in Lebanon, the agreement of a 60-day temporary ceasefire was a good start, but it needs to be solidified by the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701 of 2006, which called for the withdrawal of all forces, save for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon and the Lebanese security forces, from Lebanese territory south of the Litani River.
Third, the surprise attack in late November by Turkiye-backed Syrian groups on Aleppo and the surrounding areas ended in Assad’s ouster and the installation of a new Islamist government in Damascus. In large part, the attack was motivated by the impasse in the UN and Arab League-mediated political process.
In December 2015, the UNSC unanimously adopted Resolution 2254, which set forth a roadmap to resolve the crisis in Syria. Talks over its implementation stalled because the Assad regime stopped cooperating with UN Special Envoy Gere Pederson. Instead, the civil war raged, claiming the lives of hundreds of thousands and leaving half of Syria’s population homeless.
In May 2023, the Arab League reached an agreement in Amman with the Assad regime to resume the political process, but it later ignored the Arab League’s pleas to live up to that agreement.
The weakening of Assad’s close allies, Iran and Hezbollah, and preoccupation of Russia, Assad’s third ally, contributed to the decision by the militants to launch their successful blitz. In October, Assad’s forces again bombed the rebel-held Idlib province, probably hastening their decision to mount their counterattack.
Things in Syria are now in flux, but the new rulers appear to be eager to reassure Syrians and the outside world that they intend to have an inclusive government focused on rebuilding Syria’s devastated economy.
Fourth, in Yemen, the UN-led peace process has also stalled, as the Houthis have chosen to improve their political standing by disrupting international maritime trade and attacking ships. Here too, there is a clear UNSC resolution (No. 2216 of 2015, which was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter) that sets out the main parameters for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
To its credit, the Biden administration has been working on all these issues. But time is of the essence. It needs to take advantage of its remaining days in office to finish at least some of them, so as to hand over to the new administration a coherent response.

* Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC.
X: @abuhamad1