The case for optimism in 2025

In the blink of an eye, we have completed the first quarter of the 21st century. It has been, to say the least, extremely eventful and challenging. At the dawn of 2025, the general mood is one of pessimism — and not without reason. But as we all know, there is something of a self-fulfilling prophecy in such talk of doom and gloom. This is equally true of optimism and history has demonstrated that, as per the Latin phrase “post tenebras lux” (after darkness comes light), humanity has repeatedly managed to find light in the darkest of times and reach new heights. Is the current generation not capable of rising above what divides us and collaborating to face the existential threats we are confronted by, just as past generations have done?
It would be almost too easy to claim that the unprecedented, simultaneous challenges humanity is now facing, in terms of their severity, magnitude and speed, are insurmountable. This is exacerbated by failed leaderships and by the centers of leadership and power becoming more opaque than ever, and not necessarily in the hands of those whom we traditionally perceive to be in charge of taking decisions that determine our lives. But at the same time, people across the world have shown their resilience, imagination and capacity for innovation in the face of adversity, not only merely surviving but even prospering.
The label “the year of elections” was attached to 2024, as billions of people voted across more than 80 countries, including some of the most influential and populous, yet not necessarily free or stable, polities. The impact of these elections will be felt in the coming years. In the US, the coming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump for a second term, which is the most notable and consequential result of last year’s many elections, is dividing opinions between high expectations and even deeper concerns.
However, as divisions and polarization within and between societies continue to increase, they inevitably induce dangers, while also introducing great opportunities that require us to create a different discourse, engagement and agency, since the ones we currently employ are not fit for purpose in navigating the stormy waters ahead of us.
The so-called old-fashioned types of conflict, including kinetic wars, are still prevalent and displaying their devastating effects in the prolonged wars in Ukraine and Gaza, among others. However, without discounting the appalling devastation they inflict and the desperate need to resolve such conflicts, there are other issues that threaten our very existence. By working to solve them in a more consensual manner, we could also lessen the scale and the severity of that kind of warfare.

People across the world have shown their resilience, imagination and capacity for innovation in the face of adversity.

Yossi Mekelberg

Climate change, artificial intelligence, which is now permeating almost every aspect of our lives, the social implications of technology in general and social media in particular, and the growing inequalities that are leading to increased polarization on issues such as migration and trade wars are just a few of our immediate and long-term challenges. These will determine our future, even our existence, and they demand that we closely cooperate if we are to meet them.
History has taught us that there is nothing like a profound crisis to concentrate the mind. And, right now, humanity is facing multiple crises that could either change it beyond recognition and even fast-track it to destruction or result in 2025 becoming the year when all societies wake up to the realization that there is an alternative way forward that will not just pull us back from the abyss, but will also signal a new and a brighter dawn.
Consider, for instance, the two heavily armed conflicts that have been the center of attention for some time now. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have demonstrated their futility by their failure to achieve any political gains and instead have only caused immense suffering. In both cases, even the marked asymmetry in capabilities, elements of surprise, vulnerability to losses and international standing have not led to any decisive outcome. And the resort to the use of force, instead of settling differences diplomatically, has resulted in nothing but unimaginable suffering with no achievements to show for it.
Russia is more isolated than ever, its economy is in a shambles and its people pay the price, as they are oppressed at home and sent to die for no good reason. In the Middle East, Hamas might have scored a “success” on Oct. 7 by badly hurting its arch-enemy Israel, but what good has come out of that for the Palestinians? Only death and devastation. Israel, in its disproportionate response, has crushed much of Hamas’ military capabilities. But by killing thousands upon thousands of civilians, maiming many more, reducing the Gaza Strip to rubble and failing to reach a deal to bring the hostages back, it has also created severe cracks in its own society and its democracy that no military force is capable of fixing, while internationally its reputation is at its lowest ebb.
And yet, at the same time, scientists are, for instance, getting close to developing a cancer vaccine, an effective treatment for Alzheimer’s disease and a solar-powered box that will extract hundreds of gallons of drinking water from the air every single day — all of which can improve our quality of life and our longevity.
The threat of climate change also, more than ever, showed its devastating impact on communities in 2024. In December, European scientists confirmed that it would be the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing 2023, and also the first year that our planet’s average temperature rise compared to pre-industrial levels exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius, the critical threshold set out in the Paris Agreement.
However, this looming disaster also represents a great opportunity. According to some economic forecasts, uncontrolled climate change would wipe 6.5 percent off the world’s economic activity by 2050. On the other hand, there is the potential of the green economy creating $10.3 trillion in global gross domestic product in the next quarter of a century, which could only be regarded as a win if we grab this opportunity to fix our relationship with nature, induce a new green industrial revolution and reduce the current huge inequalities in wealth between rich and poor countries by making the latter equal partners in this human endeavor.
Similarly, one of the greatest challenges of our time is to deal with the accelerated introduction of AI into every aspect of our lives. This could be a force for ending humanity as we know it or for its transformation into an improved global community that is peaceful and prosperous.
So, instead of entering 2025 with a sense of pessimism, as many are doing, we can — to give a twist to Mark Twain’s quip about his rumored death — declare that reports of the end of humanity as we know it have been grossly exaggerated. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reflect on the watershed moment we are at and for the world to come together and improve the human condition. It is a moment of together we stand or divided we fall. The new year could and should be one of global renewal and of standing together as one.

*Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg