Macron pins his future on new prime minister

France has faced unprecedented political paralysis this year: 60 days without a prime minister following President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to hold snap elections in the summer and, last week, the collapse of the government of Michel Barnier, who lasted only a few months at the Matignon.

Barnier’s downfall, triggered by a historic vote of no confidence on Dec. 4, laid bare the deep fragmentation of the National Assembly. Central to his failure was his reliance on Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, a mechanism used to bypass parliamentary votes. The use of this constitutional tool, perceived as authoritarian by opposition parties, exacerbated existing tensions within the assembly and eroded trust in Barnier's leadership. Additionally, his inability to pass the 2025 budget led to the censure motion that marked the end of his tenure.

The political deadlock, fueled by unstable alliances and diverging interests, dealt a severe blow to Macron’s governing strategy. This prolonged period of limbo raised a fundamental question about how France can be governed and even how the president can complete his term amid such chaos.

In a terse statement, the Elysee on Friday finally ended the suspense: Francois Bayrou had been appointed prime minister. The leader of the centrist Democratic Movement party and a longtime ally of Macron now steps into the Matignon with a daunting mission: to restore stability and mend a fractured political landscape.

At 73 years old, Bayrou is a seasoned figure in French politics. A former education minister and three-time presidential candidate, Bayrou has long cultivated a reputation as a man of dialogue and compromise. Nonetheless, his tenure will be far from straightforward. In his inaugural address, Bayrou called for the “necessary reconciliation” of a divided nation, while acknowledging the enormity of the task ahead.

Political deadlock, fueled by unstable alliances and diverging interests, dealt a severe blow to Macron’s governing strategy

Zaid M. Belbagi

Following a turbulent few years in French politics, the National Assembly remains split into three irreconcilable blocs: the leftist New Popular Front, Macron’s centrist coalition and the far-right National Rally.

Among Bayrou’s immediate priorities is passing emergency legislation to avert a government shutdown. A draft law, set to be presented to the Council of Ministers this week, aims to enable the state to continue collecting taxes and borrowing on financial markets in the absence of an approved 2025 budget. Although opposition parties have signaled they will not block the measure, disagreements persist over issues such as indexing income tax brackets to inflation.

Bayrou’s political acumen will also be tested as he works to form a government capable of bridging traditional divides. The Socialist Party has ruled out joining the Cabinet, forcing Bayrou to negotiate non-censure agreements with various parties to prevent legislative gridlock.

Another urgent challenge is drafting and passing the 2025 budget, the failure of which precipitated his predecessor’s downfall. Bayrou must tread carefully to reconcile conflicting priorities among political factions while ensuring his government avoids a similar collapse. In light of this, he has already emphasized the importance of adopting a more inclusive approach to governance. Opposition leaders, including Olivier Faure of the Socialist Party, have called for compromise on key legislative issues. Bayrou’s ability to navigate these competing demands will determine his political survival.

Bayrou’s appointment has drawn mixed reactions. The Socialist Party, while critical of his nomination, has refrained from pushing for an immediate censure motion, contrasting sharply with the more confrontational stance of France Unbowed. Laurent Baumel, a Socialist deputy, noted: “We do not approve of this appointment … but we want to avoid chaos.” This cautious approach has provided Bayrou with some breathing room, while politically sidelining the National Rally. Marine Le Pen’s party, unable to topple the government alone, has adopted a pragmatic stance, urging Bayrou to engage constructively with the opposition.

Despite this initial reprieve, Bayrou faces significant hurdles. Beyond the budget crisis, he must address France’s energy and agricultural challenges, which have been exacerbated by mounting environmental pressures. Migration policy also looms large on his agenda. Following his appointment, Bayrou met with Bruno Retailleau, Barnier’s minister of the interior, to discuss the new government’s stance on immigration.

To prevent the fate that befell his predecessor, Bayrou is relying on his reputation as a consensus-builder

Zaid M. Belbagi

Economic governance poses another test. Bayrou has highlighted the moral and financial imperative of tackling France’s groaning debt, framing it as a balancing act between fiscal responsibility and ambitious public policies. His long-standing advocacy for proportional representation may also resurface as a potential reform to ease partisan tensions in a deeply fragmented assembly. However, such initiatives will require careful negotiation to secure broad-based support.

To prevent the fate that befell his predecessor, Bayrou is relying on his reputation as a consensus-builder. His initial consultations with party leaders, including those from the far left and far right, reflect a pragmatic approach aimed at fostering dialogue. However, early ministerial appointments have underscored the difficulties of coaxing opposition forces into collaboration. Philippe Brun, a Socialist deputy, rejected a Cabinet position, stating: “I’m not going to start my ministerial career at 33 under a right-wing government.” And chief among the left’s demands is a move away from the implementation of Article 49.3, a mechanism that has come to symbolize Macron’s centralized style of governance.

In the wider political context, the nomination of Bayrou marks a critical juncture in Macron’s second term. The current political gridlock has exposed the fragility of the president’s centrist strategy and his waning ability to command parliamentary majorities. Barnier’s fall highlighted the perils of this fragmented landscape, leaving Macron with limited options.

By selecting Bayrou, Macron has opted for an experienced ally who brings both political gravitas and a conciliatory approach. However, this decision is not without risks. Critics on the left have dismissed the unelected Bayrou’s appointment as a continuation of “Macronisme,” while the far right waits to exploit potential failures. Should Bayrou succeed in stabilizing France, Macron might salvage the remainder of his presidency. However, failure could accelerate his decline, leaving him weakened both within his coalition and in the face of a resurgent opposition. Macron’s political future hinges on Bayrou’s fortunes.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid