France and Germany’s woes could seriously weaken the EU

One government in, another one out — that is becoming a feature pointing to the instability within the EU’s family of nations. One could easily dismiss this and consider it the usual liberal-democratic game of politics within each country of the bloc. But the vote of no-confidence in the center-left government of Olaf Scholz after weeks of turmoil does not bode well for Germany, Europe’s biggest economy. It now seems set to join France in a potential spiral of instability, which could leave the EU without two of its biggest players at a crucial junction of history.

As 2025 dawns, the two superpowers of the EU are likely to welcome the new year without a working government, no agreed budgets and fractured politics, with the narratives of the extremes dominating the public debates, if not yet their political institutions. The two engines of the EU, France and Germany, are in crisis just as adversities gather at the gates of the bloc and multiply.

Embattled Chancellor Scholz of Germany is, after three years in power as part of an unruly three-colors coalition, lagging badly in the polls behind conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz, of the Christian Democratic Union party of ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel. And while his government has struggled to revive a stuttering economy that is suffering from high energy prices and tougher competition from China, one wonders what chance any alternative coalition would have. Germany is facing major geopolitical challenges, such as its confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine war and the looming return of Donald Trump to the US presidency, which heightens uncertainty over the future of NATO and trade ties in general.

The same could be said about President Emmanuel Macron’s France. Despite his nomination last week of centrist Francois Bayrou as prime minister, the same old problems are likely to weigh Paris down. The intransigent extreme right and extreme left are bent on sinking the presidency of Macron, unconcerned about headline issues like fixing the budget, the country’s debts or even pension reforms, let alone how Europe can deal with the Ukraine war once Trump returns to the White House next month.

The two engines of the EU are in crisis just as adversities gather at the gates of the bloc and multiply

Mohamed Chebaro

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that the consequences of France and now Germany being in disarray will be catastrophic for the EU, but also for democracy as a whole. That is unless both Berlin and Paris miraculously manage to restore the credibility of their leaderships and systems relatively soon. Otherwise, the demise of the EU and mainstream European democracy might be next.

Despair is written all over the coming weeks. Germany’s path might be simpler if the CDU could win a larger chunk of the seats in parliament in February’s snap federal election. But even then the problems will not go away, as they are rooted in an ever-increasing wealth divide and sinking living standards, which many experts have long blamed on a failure of leadership across the Western world. Too many countries have not dealt with the root causes of the financial crisis of 2007-2008, while globalization has become a bad word for voters across Europe, despite the prosperity it once afforded them.

Germany might find a potential escape route by electing Merz, who has steered his party away from Merkel’s legacy and positioned it closer to its roots in a bid to blunt the impact of the far-right Alternative for Germany and its appeal among conservative voters. His dream of winning an outright ruling majority might be far-fetched in this age of rising populist forces and their anti-traditional politics narratives, but he could still work with the Social Democrats post-Scholz and with the Greens. However, this could also be problematic.

In France, many blame Macron and his “mercurial arrogance” for ushering in this crisis, which emanated from the battering his party got in June’s European Parliament elections. His decision to hold snap elections over the summer produced a three-way split in parliament between his centrists, the left and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. A fourth or even a fifth prime ministerial appointment might not aid Macron or the country, as he keeps refusing to nominate one of the many moderate figures from the leftist coalition that earned the highest number of seats in the elections.

France seems to be in a tight corner, with polls indicating that between 35 percent and 38 percent of voters intend to support Le Pen in the next presidential election, which is due in 2027. This could put her far-right movement at the steps of the Elysee Palace.

Rather than external enemies, it may be the enemy within that ultimately unravels the tenets of the EU project

Mohamed Chebaro

Commentators across Europe are right to continuously ring the alarm bells, warning that the bloc is in need of a series of ententes cordiales, both within nations and between states, and that voters and leaders ought to wake up because “the enemy is at the gate.”

Rather than external enemies — as Russia continues to present an existential challenge to European security and society and China’s pursuit of its interests, capitalizing on any holes in the European economic guard rails, continues unabated — it may be the enemy within that ultimately unravels the tenets of the EU project, as the European populists will surely feel the winds of Trump behind them come 2025.

Giorgia Meloni of Italy might feel fewer constraints and pursue a more illiberal agenda. Some states in Central and Eastern Europe, formerly part of the Warsaw Pact, are already leaning toward authoritarianism. There is Hungary and Slovakia and maybe Czechia will soon join them in an orbit of politics that is not far from the Kremlin’s. The exceptions remain the Baltic and Nordic states and Poland, which are just holding on but maybe not for long.

That is why it is imperative for nations like Germany and France to find their withering political balance and leadership in the new year. The alternatives in populist-led European nations could only further sink the EU, its liberal democratic anchors, its peace and security mechanisms and, above all, its prosperity and welfare state.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.