Tackling region’s water scarcity amid rising temperatures

The Middle East and North Africa region is facing an acute and intensifying water crisis. Already the most water-scarce region in the world, MENA is now contending with the escalating impacts of climate change, which have exacerbated water shortages through rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and more frequent and prolonged droughts.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, every single country in the region will experience extremely high water stress by 2050. The urgency of the situation is underscored by the latest climate data, which shows that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record.

The consequences of water scarcity in MENA are profound, spanning economic, social and environmental dimensions. Water scarcity threatens agriculture, which is the backbone of many economies in the region, undermining food security and livelihoods. The environmental repercussions also include soil degradation, desertification and the collapse of ecosystems that sustain biodiversity. Socially, the scarcity of water can spark conflicts and internal displacement as communities compete over dwindling resources.

This crisis is not only a regional issue but also a global concern, as its ripple effects could exacerbate migration, destabilize governments and fuel geopolitical tensions. Dr. Mahmoud Fathallah, director of the Arab League’s Environment and Meteorology Department, last month summarized the region’s vulnerability: “The Middle East and North Africa are particularly susceptible to these effects due to their dry and semi-arid climates. The region is witnessing significant challenges, such as declining annual rainfall, rising temperatures and soil degradation.”

The MENA region’s predicament highlights a grim paradox: despite being among the least responsible for global carbon emissions, it bears some of the harshest consequences of climate change.

Despite being among the regions least responsible for global carbon emissions, it bears some of the harshest consequences

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Delaying action to address water scarcity and climate change in MENA would only compound the problem. The stakes are high: if temperatures in the region rise by 4 degrees Celsius, freshwater availability could drop by 75 percent, with devastating consequences for agriculture, industry and human survival. Projections suggest that many countries in the region could warm by as much as 5 C by the end of the century. Such an increase could render parts of MENA uninhabitable, forcing mass migrations and heightening the potential for resource-based conflicts.

The economic toll of inaction would also be catastrophic. Agriculture, which consumes more than 80 percent of the region’s water, would suffer significant declines in productivity, threatening food security and driving up prices. Industries dependent on water, such as energy production and manufacturing, could face disruptions, stifling economic growth. Furthermore, the cost of managing crises — whether through emergency relief or rebuilding after climate-related disasters — would far exceed the investments needed for proactive measures today.

Socially, the ramifications of inaction are equally dire. Water scarcity has already contributed to instability in the region and worsening conditions could further fuel unrest.

To avert these grim outcomes, MENA governments, regional organizations and the international community must act decisively. Several key measures are essential to mitigate the water crisis.

Raising awareness about the severity of the crisis and encouraging conservation efforts at the community level can have a significant impact. Education campaigns can empower individuals to adopt water-saving practices and advocate for policy changes.

Secondly, adopting sustainable water management practices, such as modernizing irrigation systems, reducing water waste and implementing policies to regulate water use are critical as well. Techniques like drip irrigation and the reuse of treated wastewater can significantly enhance water efficiency in agriculture and other sectors.

To avert these grim outcomes, MENA governments, regional organizations and the international community must act decisively

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Investments in technology can also provide solutions to the region’s water challenges. Gulf states are making significant strides in investing in advanced technologies, such as desalination and renewable energy, to address water scarcity and enhance climate resilience in the region, with Saudi Arabia being a notable leader in this effort.

Climate change knows no borders and neither should the efforts to combat its effects. In other words, MENA countries ought to strengthen regional cooperation to share resources, knowledge and technology. Collaborative initiatives, such as transboundary water management agreements, can help ensure equitable and sustainable access to shared water resources.

More importantly, the international community and global powers have a moral and strategic obligation to support MENA in addressing its water crisis. While the region’s contribution to global emissions is minimal, the major emitters bear a significant responsibility for the climate change that is exacerbating MENA’s water scarcity. Fathallah highlighted this disparity by stating: “While the Arab world is not a major emitter of carbon dioxide, the effects of climate change are disproportionately visible here.”

Financial and technical assistance from developed countries can play a crucial role in helping MENA adapt to climate change. This support can take the form of investments in infrastructure, such as desalination plants and renewable energy projects, as well as funding for the research and development of innovative water technologies.

In conclusion, water scarcity in MENA is not just a regional problem, it is a global challenge with far-reaching implications. If the international community fails to act, the consequences will extend beyond the region’s borders. The displacement of millions of people due to uninhabitable conditions could spark migration crises in neighboring regions and beyond. The economic disruptions caused by resource scarcity could destabilize global markets, while the geopolitical tensions over water resources could escalate into broader conflicts.

Addressing water scarcity in MENA requires a collective effort. By investing in sustainable solutions, fostering regional and international cooperation, and acknowledging the interconnectedness of our world, we can mitigate the impacts of climate change and build a more resilient future for MENA and the global community. The time to act is now because the alternative — a future marked by scarcity, conflict and suffering — is intolerable.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh