RIYADH: The global oil market is expected to be adequately supplied in 2025, even as OPEC+ extends its voluntary production cuts by an additional three months, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its latest report, the IEA raised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 1.1 million barrels per day, up from its previous estimate of 990,000 bpd. This upward revision is driven by rising oil demand in Asian markets.
The report comes just a day after OPEC revised its own global oil demand growth projection for 2025, cutting it to 1.4 million bpd. According to the oil producers’ group, total global oil demand is expected to reach 105.3 million bpd in 2025, an increase from 103.8 million bpd in 2024.
The IEA noted that OPEC+ decision to extend its voluntary production cuts for another three months and push back the ramp-up period by nine months, now extending to September 2026, has significantly reduced the potential supply surplus that was anticipated for next year.
However, the IEA cautioned that persistent overproduction from some OPEC+ members, strong supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries, and relatively modest global oil demand growth would still result in a comfortably supplied market in 2025.
Global oil consumption is projected to reach 103.9 million bpd in 2025, closely aligned with OPEC+ forecast.
The IEA also highlighted that oil demand growth next year would be largely driven by petrochemical feedstocks, while demand for transport fuels remains constrained by behavioral changes and advancements in technology.
The report also indicated that crude oil production from OPEC could increase next year if countries such as Libya, South Sudan, and Sudan can maintain their production levels, along with the expansion of Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field.
On the global supply side, non-OPEC+ countries are expected to contribute the majority of production growth, with the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina collectively adding over 1.1 million bpd.
Additionally, the IEA forecasted that Saudi Arabia’s oil supply would receive a boost in 2025 from the start-up of Saudi Aramco’s Jafurah gas project, which will increase the Kingdom’s natural gas liquid supply.
In June, Aramco finalized $25 billion worth of agreements for the second phase of its Jafurah gas field development and the third phase of its master gas system expansion.
These infrastructure upgrades are expected to increase the network’s capacity by 3.15 billion standard cubic feet per day.
