Starmer right to rebuild trust with key Gulf allies

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia this week took place at a crucial time for the region and the Western world, amid the Gaza war, the Hezbollah-Israel war and the unexpected collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which came 13 years too late.

When the first visit to the Gulf by Britain’s new leader was planned, its most ambitious remit was to focus on rebooting an already well-oiled relationship between London and the Gulf states, which have for decades enjoyed a special but limited relationship with London in the age of a US-dominated world. Yet, the post-Brexit UK is undoubtedly a country that needs all the allies it can get. And it is no secret that London needs to attract more investment from oil-rich countries to induce its long-awaited growth, as Downing Street had briefed journalists in London prior to the visit.

No. 10 explained that Starmer’s meetings in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi were aimed at building closer ties and driving long-term UK growth, regardless of whether it is Labour or the Conservatives in the driving seat. He particularly wants to pursue a free trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six nations: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Although Britain has long celebrated and even at times boasted about its influence in the Gulf, due to its historic role and the affinity that has always existed between their respective royal families, one could easily question whether the UK now needs the region more than the Gulf states need it. After all, the UK unilaterally chose to limit its political and developmental investment in the region after giving itself the role of a so-called Singapore-on-Thames trading market in the wake of Brexit. It gave up its role as a key player in the large economic, political and social club that is the EU, which gave weight to its traditional role as the US’ most-trusted global partner, particularly in terms of security, defense and diplomacy.

It is no secret that London needs to attract more investment from oil-rich countries to induce its long-awaited growth

Mohamed Chebaro

For the Gulf states, the foundations of that relationship could benefit from an occasional refocusing. They would like to explore the object of Starmer’s visit and add to the hundreds of existing joint ventures and increase those in the defense and security sectors, as well as including trade and development, especially in innovation and new tech. Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been trying to position themselves as incubators and drivers of innovation in the technological sphere. But Starmer will also not be surprised to learn that the players in this region have, over the past decade, become more versatile, transactional and strategic, diversifying their trade and investment to include other regions and partners, from East and West alike.

Starmer’s visit was no doubt overshadowed by the developments in Syria and maybe London was caught out by not anticipating the demise of the Assad regime. It is worth remembering that, in 2013, the British government of David Cameron stood idle, like the Obama administration, when the Syrian regime used chemical weapons against civilians near Damascus, to the surprise and horror of many in the Middle East and around the world.

Starmer was correct to state during his visit that he wanted to play a more present and consistent role in the region because “what happens in the Middle East matters at home.” But that necessitates Britain having the means and the stomach to play the long game and build the necessary trust and shared vision to see things through, despite the many adversities that are lurking in the wings.

The players in this region have become more versatile, transactional and strategic, diversifying their trade and investment

Mohamed Chebaro

The last 14 years of chaotic Conservative rule, which ended when Starmer and his Labour Party were elected in July, eroded national trust and the UK’s standing on the world stage. The recent assessments by the UK intelligence community of the adversities challenging the country surpass its investments to deal with them. Senior military officers are said to have privately expressed concerns that the UK’s armed forces would have difficulty fighting a high-intensity war for more than a month or two, even in Europe, after successive governments starved the army of investment.

And the challenges to Britain are set to become more acute, as its future relationship with the US may suffer during Donald Trump’s second presidency. Even before he takes office, the tremors Trump is causing on the world stage are likely to shake Britain’s worldview and foreign policy. Global rules favored by the UK and the EU will be in Trump’s firing range. These include their attitude to human rights, democracy and free trade, as well as the international structures London, Paris and Berlin have relied upon since 1945 to underpin their security and prosperity.

After almost six months in power, the UK government remains timid in asserting its readiness to bolster its engagement with Europe to avert the political and economic downfalls associated with the feared US disengagement from Ukraine and NATO.

When he took office, Starmer promised to redress the imbalances caused by his predecessors, both domestically and internationally, in a world of constantly shifting priorities and adversities. His visits to countries considered by Britain as key allies should be welcomed as a step to rebuild trust and agree a common ethos that could provide dividends for a UK that is in flux and in need of allies old and new. Britain is in yet another crucial phase of its long history.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.