What will Musk’s newfound influence mean for the space race?

The second term of President Donald Trump is expected to bring a sea change to space, ushering in a new and robust era for the “final frontier,” to quote Captain James T. Kirk of “Star Trek.” Trump had an impressive space record in his first term, but his second will be nothing short of transformational if one is to believe what space experts close to his universe are saying.

The word these people use when speaking about Trump’s upcoming space policy is “disruptive.” They do not mean it in a negative way, they use it to stress its transformational nature. They believe that the Trump administration will have a different style, a new emphasis and different priorities in space. But it will be transactional.

Trump will not be alone in driving this policy. He has a new partner, the leader in space, Elon Musk, who campaigned hard for him and is now expected to reap the benefits of his efforts. Trump announced in his victory speech that “a star is born, Elon.” It was obvious from his effusive praise of Musk’s space credentials that the SpaceX founder and CEO would have an oversized role and impact on the second Trump administration, especially when it comes to space.

Trump and Musk see eye to eye on space and Trump attended the launch of the SpaceX Spaceship in October. Musk wants to go to Mars and Trump, as long ago as 2019, said that NASA should abandon its Moon quest because “we did that 50 years ago.” He added: “They should be focused on the much bigger things we are doing, including Mars.”

The SpaceX founder and CEO will have an oversized role and impact on the second Trump administration

Dr. Amal Mudallali

The space community is in two minds about this new partnership between two of the most powerful men on Earth. One camp is excited about the future of space with Musk. These people see a new cosmic renaissance and a better chance to beat China in space thanks to the energized, faster and bolder vision that Musk will bring with him. The other is predicting a wild ride and calling on people to buckle up. These people are wary of Musk’s influence and the conflict of interest they say he will bring to government and space policy. They feel that competing with SpaceX will become a big issue during the second Trump administration, with Musk potentially able to rig the process in favor of his companies, meaning space policy will lack its former stability.

I was surprised during a space conference run by the Beyond Earth Institute this month that, whatever the topic, the Musk phenomenon was front and center, raising the question: “How do you do the presidential transition with this phenomenon?”

Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator of NASA who has known Musk for a long time, predicted change that “will not be like anything we have seen before.” Musk is expected to have “more impact than anyone in the past on the presidential transition and on NASA.” Musk will lead the planned Department of Government Efficiency and the budget of NASA will not be exempt from cuts, she said.

Others agreed and raised the red flag of conflict of interest for Musk, complaining that he could make changes that will benefit his company and his agenda in space.

Neel Patel wrote an article in The New York Times that was entitled “Will Musk be the death of NASA?” She wrote: “Were NASA programs to be cut, there would be fewer opportunities to award more money to a wider group of SpaceX competitors. Slashing spending might also force the agency to hand off more of its operations” to SpaceX.

But Dr. Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, disagreed while speaking at the Beyond Earth Institute event, saying that Musk is mission-driven and his missions to Mars are about the mission, “not a matter of making money.” He saw “tectonic plates moving a little bit, and you can imagine new structures could be done” with Musk there.

The biggest change people expect to see is a push to expand the role, budget and mandate of the Space Force

Dr. Amal Mudallali

The biggest change people expect to see in Trump’s space policy is a push to expand the role, budget and mandate of the Space Force, from the current defensive strategy to a more “offensive” one with a stronger deterrence, as Project 2025 calls for. This is according to SpaceNews.

The future of the National Space Council, which is usually headed by the country’s vice president, is also unclear. Will J.D. Vance strengthen the council or let the National Security Council usurp its role?

China is the biggest challenge to the US in space and this rivalry drives American space policy. There are those who believe that the government should partner with SpaceX and move faster to win the competition with China — a jab at NASA and the delays to its Artemis moon mission.

The international community is concerned about the future of space cooperation under Trump, but Pace said he sees “international engagement as central and an important part of the Trump administration,” because it is part of a larger national interest.

The fears surrounding Musk’s influence during this transition are real. There is a worry that he will populate the administration with his people, that he will do away with regulations, that he will disregard any national or international rules on the management of space, that Trump will give him a free hand to reach the stars. All of this might be true. But what is also true is that he can almost guarantee American superiority in space — and this is the only thing that matters for Trump.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a visiting research scholar at Princeton University and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.