Syria facing new crisis due to Israel’s war on Lebanon

With most of the focus today on Israel, Gaza and Lebanon, Syria is one Middle Eastern front that gets scant attention.

Israeli attacks on Syria have been a feature for more than a decade. The Israeli red line was always that it would take action to prevent the transfer of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah.

These terms of engagement have loosened. Israel has been targeting Iranian assets, especially since 2017. Attacks have included the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus that precipitated the first Iranian missile salvo on Israel in April. Attacks on areas like Al Mezzeh, where the consulate is located, have led to many Syrians leaving the capital.

Israel has also been encroaching further into Syrian territory on the Golan Heights, where it has cleared landmines and created a new line along the demilitarized zone with Syria. Its official rationale is to keep Iran and its associated forces away from Israeli-controlled lines. The Israelis announced they had killed a Hezbollah fighter at Quneitra two weeks ago.

Given the Israeli operations in Lebanon, it is impossible to estimate how long the Lebanese will remain in Syria

Chris Doyle

But the Israeli invasion of Lebanon has transformed the situation for Syrians in this conflict. More than 426,000 Syrians and Lebanese have crossed the border into Syria. Back in 2006, Lebanese also sought shelter in Syria. The difference this time is that about 70 percent of those crossing the border are Syrians, who are being compelled to return to a country that is economically unable to support them anymore. These returnees are also impoverished, so are bringing no funds to support themselves. Thus far, the UN Refugee Agency estimates that about 80 percent have found refuge with friends and families, but this is only a short-term option as the hosts do not have enough resources. Many fear threats to Syrian supply chains. Inflation is rampant, with fuel prices in particular shooting up.

Given the Israeli operations in Lebanon, it is impossible to estimate how long the Lebanese will remain in Syria or how many more will cross the border.

Both Lebanese and the returning Syrians bring their own political baggage. Many Lebanese fled to Syria as they came from Hezbollah-controlled areas, which is one reason why Israel has bombed the Lebanese-Syrian border crossings. This hit imports of vital goods into Syria. Many Lebanese were corralled into areas around the Shiite area of Sayyidah Zaynab, outside of Damascus. But tensions have broken out. Some Lebanese in Homs were angry that shops did not close when Hassan Nasrallah was killed.

The Syrian authorities have had to decide how to handle returning Syrians. Many are men of conscription age. Conscription was one reason many refugees previously refused to return. This return is far from voluntary. The regime knows it cannot detain them all. Moreover, it is no longer concerned with critical social media posts, given that it does not feel under threat. Those who were previously in the army and deserted have been given one week to return to the armed forces. Others get two weeks to sign up. Those with a security record have to endure interrogation from the security forces. Those who refuse are told to go to opposition-held areas or leave the country.

There is a distortion of human capital in Syria. Men are in short supply in the government-controlled areas, whereas in the opposition zones there is a surfeit. The Syrian economy does not need more men in the army, it needs them to rejoin the productive economy and play their social roles as part of their families.

Many Syria observers believe that Assad does not want to antagonize Israel and the US by joining the war

Chris Doyle

The prospects of massive population movements, including to Europe, explain why Southern European states have become even jumpier than usual. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has taken the lead on this.

How does the Syrian regime see these changes? Strangely, it has been quiet over many incidents. The killing of Yahya Sinwar hardly merited a mention in the regime’s media outlets. Israel’s activity on the Golan Heights has also not been referred to.

The situation in Lebanon is both a threat and an opportunity. Syria has always been dependent on Lebanon economically, so the war will damage it. But once the Israeli armed forces have done their worst, the Syrian regime may fancy reasserting its influence in a country that — until its forced withdrawal in 2005 — it had viewed very much as its own backyard. It does not possess the same capabilities as in the 1990s, but it could still return as an actor.

Many Syria observers believe that Bashar Assad does not want to antagonize Israel and the US by joining the war alongside Iran and Hezbollah. Gone are the days when the regime needed Tehran and its proxy militia’s support to survive. Assad sees the advantage in not antagonizing Israel. Hezbollah counters that 5,400 of its fighters died defending the regime and that it expects Syrian support.

On the whole, Israel has left the Damascus regime alone, satisfied that Assad has limited himself to making hollow threats.

In the past, it has been either Lebanon or Syria in crisis. One group of people was always there to offer refuge to the other. However, for some time now, both have been suffering simultaneously. Israel’s invasion of Lebanon will escalate the pain for both, with no safety net.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech