Weakening of France, Germany creating an EU power shift

The Franco-German duo has been the keystone of the EU for many decades. It is through this strong alliance that the bloc has maintained its course and grown with great stability. Through every European or global crisis, this partnership has been able to find solutions and maintain trust in EU institutions. The world is nevertheless changing and, through geopolitical and economic crises, the leading and dominant position of this duo is eroding.

There is no doubt that the German economy, which is the largest in Europe, has positioned Berlin as a de facto kingmaker in Europe. Despite this still being true, Berlin’s status has been shaken by a reversal of fortunes and, more precisely, a series of bad decisions that have raised doubts over its capacity to ensure a stable future for Europe. It has shown a lack of political vision with its reliance on Russian energy and this has weakened its authoritative voice.

This is amplified by the fact that Germany’s economy is projected to shrink by 0.2 percent in 2024, marking a period of stagnation after several years of slow recovery. Factors contributing to this include structural challenges such as the ill-managed energy transition, as well as the impact of an aging population. Additionally, increasing competition from Chinese industrial exports have put further pressure on the manufacturing sector, a foundation of Germany’s economy.

This unique situation is raising questions on whether it is time to give more power to the European Commission itself

Khaled Abou Zahr

France did not make the energy transition mistake or, to be precise, it reversed course in the nick of time when it came to abandoning nuclear power, unlike Germany. Yet, it now faces higher debt levels than ever before to maintain its current GDP growth. For the first time in history, France is borrowing at higher rates than Italy, Greece or Spain. Indeed, France cannot abide by the EU guidelines regarding debt ceilings and fiscal deficits. This in turn shakes its ability to have a leading voice, as it is not even respecting the rules.

This is due to the fact that France’s economy is also struggling, with GDP growth forecast to be about 0.7 percent in 2024. This weak performance is largely due to the lingering effects of rising interest rates, the energy crisis and the withdrawal of governmental fiscal support measures. Moreover, budgetary cuts of approximately €10 billion ($10.9 billion) have reduced its growth potential.

If we add to these issues the policymaking mayhem on Ukraine and the Middle East, with contradicting positions between Paris and Berlin and spurs of tension that, despite friendly declarations, are not being resolved. This puts the two countries in a tough spot to continue showing leadership for Europe. This unique situation is raising questions on whether it is time to give more power to the European Commission itself.

It is hence not surprising that, during recent crises and particularly under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission has taken on a more assertive role. This has been very clear, especially with regard to the war in Ukraine. In turn, this has pushed forward the EU’s geopolitical agenda. Von der Leyen’s second term is expected to witness confirmation of this trend as global tensions increase. The dominant role taken by the European Commission during the COVID-19 pandemic and now the Ukraine war will continue solidifying Brussels’ influence. This is in light of the leadership gap caused by the weakening of France and Germany, meaning it is acting more as a central authority, superseding national governments.

Some analysts even claim that Von der Leyen has gained the upper hand on both President Macron and Chancellor Scholz

Khaled Abou Zahr

Indeed, this growing power was clear in the intricate backstage negotiations for the nomination of EU commissioners. Some analysts even claim that Von der Leyen has gained the upper hand on both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Therefore, it is not astonishing that EU pundits are starting to whisper via social media and other “leaks” that, with both France and Germany in a weakened state, there is a unique opportunity to take concrete steps toward establishing a new phase in the EU process that involves greater decision-making authority being transferred to Brussels.

As with all signs of weakness, we also notice that several European countries are uniting to counterbalance the traditional Franco-German dominance in the EU. This has also strengthened the leadership of Von der Leyen. Nations like Poland, under Donald Tusk, have significantly raised their profile by investing heavily in defense and playing a critical role in supporting Ukraine, positioning themselves as key players in European security. Italy, under Giorgia Meloni, has also aligned with Eastern European countries by advocating for a more diverse leadership structure and stronger EU action on geopolitical issues. We can notice that Meloni succeeded in the strategy Macron tried to put forward to empower France within the Franco-German duo.

Additionally, other Eastern European nations like Estonia, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have amplified their influence by pushing for greater EU involvement in defense, particularly in response to Russian aggression. The role of the European Commission in the potential reengagement of the UK under its new Labour government could further dilute Franco-German dominance.

The combination of a more dangerous world, greater uncertainty and the weakening of the Berlin-Paris duo has empowered the European Commission. This is also a sign of a shift toward a more multipolar Europe, which will enable the European Commission to take a more active role in shaping EU policy, especially on defense and economic security. All these factors raise the question of whether we will soon witness an all-powerful, sovereign European president.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.