Has the balance of power shifted in France-Algeria ties?
https://arab.news/4v354
Recurring crises between France and Algeria have become the norm. In 2024 alone, there have been three diplomatic conflict points between the two countries. Sixty years after the independence of the North African country at the cost of 1 million martyrs, relations with the former colonizer continue to be strained. Policymakers and analysts alike put the issue of memory at the heart of the dynamics of this relationship. Yet, one might also ask if it is France’s lack of recognition of the past wounds or its denial of the powerhouse Algeria has become that continues to strain relations between the two countries.
Last week, a meeting of historians took place at the Elysee Palace, at which President Emmanuel Macron had requested that the work already undertaken by a joint Franco-Algerian commission be completed and concrete proposals produced. The objective is to reach what the joint commission qualified as a reconciliation of memories, which could help educate French and Algerian youths.
This commission was established in 2022 by the French president and his Algerian counterpart Abdelmadjid Tebboune to relaunch the bilateral relationship. However, its work remained suspended due to the recurring diplomatic tensions between the two countries. This is why, at the Elysee, only the French members of the joint commission were present. This raises the question of whether the relationship needs fewer historians and more current stakeholders or if history and its interpretation is all that is left in this relationship.
There are many facets to the relationship between the two countries, but one key element of today’s geopolitical relations is energy supply. This element has become a central focus for Europe, especially after the war in Ukraine led to its divestment from Russian energy supplies. Algeria has transformed into a true energy powerhouse for Europe. It has, in short, become unavoidable in the European energy mix and hence it has an influential voice beyond its relations with France.
With an annual production of 90 to 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 1 to 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil, Algeria is a leading energy producer. It exports 30 to 40 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe annually, primarily through pipelines like TransMed to Italy and Medgaz to Spain. Italy is the largest importer, receiving 35 to 40 percent of Algeria’s gas exports, while France gets some 7 to 10 percent.
Thanks to France’s reliance on nuclear power, which accounts for 70 to 75 percent of its electricity generation, natural gas represents only a modest portion of its energy mix, while most of its oil comes from other countries. This all means that Algeria supplies less than 2 percent of France’s total energy consumption.
In contrast, Italy depends more heavily on Algerian gas, making it a key partner for Algeria in Europe. Energy has strengthened Algerian-Italian relations, as well as Algerian-Spanish, giving Algiers more leverage in Europe. In turn, this new dynamic puts relations with France at a second-tier level.
Even if its overall contribution to Europe’s total energy needs is estimated at only about 2 to 3 percent, given the continent’s reliance on a variety of sources, Algeria’s role has become more strategically important to Europe. This importance is not only linked to Europe’s decision to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, but also the fact that other suppliers such as Libya do not offer the same stability. Coincidentally, Italy is also Libya’s biggest energy partner. This is a second blow to France in terms of its energy development and potential business for its national companies.
This current energy-based geopolitical map and dynamic clarifies the difficulties in mending relations between France and Algeria. A lack of interdependence could easily put their relations in a zero-sum game.
There are many facets to the relationship between the two countries, but one key element is energy supply.
Khaled Abou Zahr
While energy represents the largest part of Algeria’s exports, the other side of the story is Algerian imports — and here too it is interesting to notice the shrinking share of French imports in Algeria’s total. It has decreased from 30 to 40 percent in the 1990s to 15 to 20 percent in recent years. This decline cannot be linked to the political tensions between the two countries, as it has mainly been driven by the rise of China as a dominant supplier of machinery and consumer goods. One can also mention Algeria’s focus on expanding its imports with key partners such as Italy and Turkiye.
Could we now say that, as a result of their shrinking trade relationships, whether in terms of energy exports or machinery imports, France and Algeria are left only with the wounded past and bitter current regional and domestic feuds, without anything to act as a barrier or a cooler? Has the trade relationship become obsolete? Is Algeria not now capable of accessing the same level of “control levers” from various partners instead of a single one? Moreover, looking mainly at this angle, does this not give Algeria better leverage than France in their bilateral dynamics?
Despite Algeria’s strengthened energy relations with other European countries, its ties with France and their historic diplomacy are symbolic of a less powerful or at least less relevant Western bloc.
- Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, CEO of EurabiaMedia, and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.
