Diplomatic breakthrough on Iran unlikely at UNGA

The annual UN General Assembly serves as a platform for world leaders to discuss and debate pressing global issues. For Iran, its agenda at the event is often shaped not by the immediate political goals of its presidents, but rather by the overarching policies dictated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. As the ultimate authority on both domestic and foreign affairs, Khamenei’s influence is inescapable when addressing matters of international diplomacy, particularly at the UNGA.

One important topic surfacing at the ongoing 79th session of the UNGA in New York is Iran’s nuclear program, an issue that has been a focal point of international concern for many years. The nuclear program, which Tehran insists is for peaceful purposes, has been a cause of anxiety due to suspicions that Iran is seeking the capability to produce nuclear weapons. The increasing concern over Iran’s nuclear intentions has become a central point of friction between the country and the West.

This year’s session is particularly notable because of the first appearance of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, on this global stage. Pezeshkian, often described as more moderate than his predecessor Ebrahim Raisi, has signaled a departure from the hard-line approach that dominated Raisi’s presidency.

Pezeshkian’s emergence as a more conciliatory figure is seen as a potential pivot in Iran’s foreign policy. He is perceived as a pragmatist. He has expressed openness to rekindling diplomatic talks, especially regarding his country’s nuclear program. His administration has also signaled a willingness to engage in negotiations to relieve Iran from the crippling economic sanctions that have strangled its economy in recent years.

Pezeshkian’s emergence as a more conciliatory figure is seen as a potential pivot in Iran’s foreign policy

Despite his firm grip on power, Khamenei has recently hinted that he is open to a return to negotiations as well — a development that has added intrigue to the UNGA discussions. Khamenei’s signals are often subtle, but when viewed against the backdrop of Pezeshkian’s more moderate tone, they may suggest a potential opening for talks. While the president might initiate overtures, the world will be closely watching Khamenei’s reactions, as his approval is essential for any substantive change in policy.

One of the key motivations for Iran’s willingness to negotiate is its dire economic situation, which has been exacerbated by years of sanctions. The Iranian economy is in a state of crisis, with inflation and unemployment soaring and the national currency continuing to lose value. The lifting of sanctions would offer Iran a lifeline, thereby alleviating some of the economic pressures on the government. Pezeshkian’s call for renewed nuclear talks can be seen as a bid to relieve this economic stranglehold.

Beyond the economic realm, sanctions relief would also bolster Iran’s legitimacy on both the regional and international stages. This renewed legitimacy would strengthen its hand in regional politics, where it has long sought to be recognized as a dominant power.

However, significant obstacles remain in the path of renewed diplomacy. Chief among them is the fact that Iran’s nuclear program has continued to advance during the years of stalemate in the negotiations. The country is now closer than ever to becoming a nuclear-armed state, with reports suggesting that it is only a short step away from reaching critical capacity. This advancement has made Western nations, particularly the US and the EU3 (France, Germany and the UK) more reluctant to trust Iran in any future talks.

While Pezeshkian may wish to present himself as a moderate voice advocating for dialogue, his ability to convince Western powers to take him seriously is severely undermined by Iran’s continued nuclear progress. Without clear and verifiable steps toward scaling back its nuclear activities, Iran is unlikely to find willing partners in Washington or Brussels.

Without clear and verifiable steps toward scaling back its nuclear activities, Iran is unlikely to find willing partners

Another factor complicating any potential breakthrough is the growing tension between Israel and Iran. As these tensions continue to escalate, Washington appears less inclined to seek a diplomatic resolution that involves lifting sanctions on Tehran. The Biden administration is already under pressure to support Israel’s security and any easing of sanctions could be seen as undermining that commitment.

This creates a dilemma for Pezeshkian: while he seeks sanctions relief to stabilize Iran’s economy, he must navigate a geopolitical landscape where Washington is less willing to compromise due to its strategic alliance with Israel.

Further complicating the situation is Iran’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Reports have surfaced that Iran has been supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, a move that has sparked outrage in Europe and further strained relations with Western powers. The EU3, in particular, are now more cautious in their dealings with Iran, fearing that any concessions made in the nuclear talks could embolden Tehran’s military ambitions.

Given these complex dynamics, it is unlikely that the 79th session of the UNGA will result in any significant breakthroughs regarding Iran’s nuclear program or its relations with the West. The core issues — Iran’s nuclear advancements, escalating tensions with Israel and its involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war — remain deeply entrenched and are unlikely to be resolved through diplomatic discussions alone. The deeper geopolitical rifts are likely to be too wide to bridge in the short term.

In a nutshell, while Pezeshkian hopes for the lifting of sanctions against Iran, the underlying obstacles suggest that any progress will be limited. The deep-seated and increasing mistrust between Iran and the West, exacerbated by Tehran’s support for Russia and heightened tensions with Israel, is likely to prevent any kind of comprehensive diplomatic initiative.

- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh