Algeria after President Tebboune’s overwhelming election victory

In an election marked by apathy and skepticism, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune secured an overwhelming — albeit predictable — victory, clinching 94 percent of the vote when Algerians went to the polls last week.
Yet the landslide result raises as many questions as it answers. With fewer than 6 million of 24 million eligible voters participating, the abysmally low turnout is a strange contrast to the decisive result, revealing cracks in a facade of democratic legitimacy.
The victor’s reelection campaign, framed nostalgically as a choice for “Uncle Tebboune,” might have struck a chord with some sections of the electorate but the broader narrative here is one of enduring disillusionment.
This was particularly evident given the legacy of his first term in office, a tenure marred by persistent economic challenges, high living costs, severe drought conditions, and wildfires that have compounded the nation’s political difficulties. The 78-year-old president’s personal political journey is closely linked to his nation’s volatile political climate, shaped significantly by the 2019 pro-democracy Hirak protests that led to the ousting of his predecessor, Abdelaziz Bouteflika.
Despite the impressive vote tally last week, Tebboune’s claim on presidential legitimacy remains contentious. The election process itself, criticized for irregularities by independent observers and even by Tebboune’s own party, has cast a shadow over the authenticity of his mandate.
This skepticism is not unfounded; the electoral exercise was perceived by many as a rubber-stamp operation to reinforce the status quo, rather than as a meaningful democratic endeavor. Activists openly condemned a preelection crackdown that only fueled the narrative that genuine political pluralism in Algeria remains a distant dream.
The existential question for President Tebboune’s second term revolves around his capacity to transition from electoral consolidation to substantive governance. Can he translate the electoral mandate he received into action that addresses Algeria’s pressing socioeconomic issues, while pacifying a populace weary of unfulfilled promises?
During his first term there were attempts to leverage the country’s oil and gas revenues to help ease public discontent through the enhancement of social benefits. However, these measures, while palliative, did little to address the root causes of the unrest that has plagued Algeria and exasperated his administration.
Facing a second term with the weight of public expectation and scrutiny on his shoulders, Tebboune must now navigate a path that not only bolsters his claims of legitimacy but also engenders tangible sociopolitical and economic progress.
Firstly, while the nation’s hydrocarbon windfall can offer some temporary relief, long-term solutions must address systemic economic fragility. Tebboune’s administration faces the monumental task of diversifying an economy in which hydrocarbons constitute 95 percent of export revenues and fund vital social programs.
Ramped-up foreign interest in Algeria’s natural gas, particularly from Europe as an alternative to Russian supplies, underscores this urgency. However, meaningful progress will demand structural reforms, from efforts to attract diversified sources of investment to plans for tackling unemployment, especially among the nation’s youth. Without such actions, economic stability will remain shackled to the whims of volatile energy markets.

Secondly, the geopolitical challenges Algeria faces remain formidable. A growing military entente between Morocco and Israel, following the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, has strained Algeria’s regional posture and escalated its military preparedness.
The presence of Russian mercenaries in Mali and the continuing political gridlock in Libya increase the burden on the security apparatus, further stretching Algeria’s attention and focus. Meanwhile developments in the Sahel region’s “coup belt,” marked by military takeovers of countries, diminishes the region’s stability, and exacerbates complex cross-border threats.

The real test for the Tebboune administration lies in balancing a growing militarized ethos with genuine democratic engagement.

Hafed Al-Ghwell

Moreover, while French and American military withdrawals have been compensated for, in part, by Russian private military company Wagner Group, this represents a delicate balancing act for Algeria, which historically has opposed external interventions.
Tebboune’s administration must navigate these external pressures while addressing internal expectations for democratic reforms that have been stifled by an omnipresent security discourse, creating a virtual tightrope for him to walk in a country that has a history of civil strife, combined with a heightened sense of vulnerability among the populace.
Thirdly, the enhanced prominence and visibility of military institutions exacerbates this fragility. Tebboune has frequently appeared alongside the army’s chief of staff, Said Chengriha, and the increased public presence of the military signals a deviation from its traditional behind-the-scenes influence.
Although this overt association might solidify the regime’s control in the short term, it risks alienating civilian support and perpetuating distrust among the populace. Tebboune’s second term will therefore have to navigate a complex political terrain in which a blurring of the lines between military and civilian governance might spur resistance.
A revised constitutional framework declaring the military to be the protector of the nation’s “vital and strategic interests” portends a scenario in which ambiguous legal language empowers the army to intervene in civilian affairs under loosely defined terms.
This new electoral landscape, coupled with legislative changes that curtail parliamentary oversight, could potentially stifle democratic reforms and catalyze dissent reminiscent of the powerful Hirak movement.
Provisions restricting public discourse on national defense, coupled with legal reforms that broaden the definition of terrorism to include actions perceived as threats to government stability, indicate an institutional clampdown poised to quash opposition.
Amid these measures, the treatment of civilian leaders and activists such as Karim Tabbou, who face stringent penalties for perceived insubordination, serve to accentuate an environment in which the pursuit of a democratic transition might clash forcefully with entrenched military power.
In this delicate dance of power, the real test for the Tebboune administration lies in balancing a growing militarized ethos with genuine democratic engagement, lest it further inflame and radicalize a populace wary of authoritarian overreach.
The persistent lack of new political figures since the Hirak movement underscores a failure to rejuvenate the Algerian political landscape. Previous crises, such as the 1988 riots and the turbulence of the 1990s, yielded new political movements and actors. But in the post-2019 era there has been a stifling rather than a flourishing of political diversity, as evidenced by the minimal success of new candidates in recent elections and allegations of judicial manipulations.
Persistently low voter turnout is increasingly reflective of pervasive skepticism toward supposed reforms, feeding disillusionment and, lately, apathy. With the military still embedded as a key political player in Algeria, fundamental shifts toward genuine democratic governance are likely to remain elusive.
Tebboune’s public reassurances of economic diversification are so far unfulfilled, further entwining the fate of the nation with its volatile hydrocarbon revenues. Meanwhile, the electoral cycle has only tightened the noose on dissent, casting a long shadow over the rule of law as new legislative measures will further suppress political freedoms under the guise of state security.
Meanwhile, integral regional parties, such as the Socialist Forces Front, struggle to mobilize voters who are disenchanted by systemic repression, even within their robust base in regions such as Kabylia.
Tebboune’s second term therefore risks widening the chasm between government proclamations and grassroots realities, a dichotomy that could more deeply entrench national frustration if left unaddressed.
Navigating these issues will require more than governance by decree; it will demand genuine engagement with political pluralism and economic transformation — avenues hitherto blocked but which are imperative for any substantive progress toward Tebboune’s purported vision for a “New Algeria.”

• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell