Imbalances, instability threaten EU’s future

At a time when unity, solidity and unified purposes should dominate the EU — with Ukraine completing its 1,000th day at war this week and with the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House — the German government’s latest troubles are a bad omen for the future of Europe as a whole.

Olaf Scholz’s coalition collapsed two weeks ago and a snap election is now expected in February 2025, following a confidence vote that his government is likely to lose in December. All this distracts a key EU player, leaving it busy with internal political squabbling at a crunch time and with the dawn of an uncertain transatlantic relationship on the horizon.

Other key EU players, such as France, are in no better shape politically. French President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in the summer, has a barely functioning government and his approval rate has plummeted to 23 percent, according to a recent Ipsos poll. Like Scholz, he is facing a severe challenge from the far right.

The 27-country bloc’s shaky political leadership is also suffering its own existential threats, with the rise of the far right and populist leftist parties no doubt shaking the foundations of the EU’s stability and purpose. Weakened national governments undoubtedly hinder the multilateral work within the EU’s machinery and cast doubts that show weakness and risk imperiling the bloc’s future stability and relevance.

The collapse of Scholz’s government, triggered by the chancellor’s firing of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, has thrown Europe’s largest economy into political chaos at a critical time. After dismissing Lindner of the Free Democratic Party, Scholz is now expected to head a minority government featuring his Social Democrats and the Greens.

The confidence motion in Scholz’s government is not due until Dec. 16 and he looks likely to limp through until then with his broken coalition. He will have to count on support from the Greens and the goodwill of the center-right conservative Christian Democratic Union party led by Friedrich Merz to cobble together ad hoc support for individual votes as he attempts to turn around Germany’s crisis-stricken economy and face the world’s many international adversities. This situation could further damage Germany’s position and resolve both domestically and internationally.

It is not difficult to see how this German dilemma is being felt across the board. It has resulted in a faltering of the political will of the EU, which is besieged by the enemy within, as far-right and far-left parties continue to erode public trust in the bloc’s institutions, fueled by antidemocratic narratives advanced by populist figures worldwide.

The long-held wisdom that the firewall, or cordon sanitaire, built by the mainstream parties across Europe to isolate the far right will hold indefinitely is clearly faltering. The Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Sweden all have governing coalitions made up of conservatives and far-right politicians, while the Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally are waiting in the wings.

Trump’s return to Washington and the fact Russian forces are being aided by North Koreans ought to concentrate minds across the EU. The adversities facing the bloc could become destructive, raising the specter of protectionism, an erosion of the consensus on Ukraine and divisions on NATO’s future. They could also handicap the EU’s political will to play a positive role in solving the Israel-Palestine problem. Then there is the elephant in the room that all sides are trying to shove under the carpet — and that is the global climate crisis. Above all, efforts should be concentrated on evading any ramifications from a possible global trade war should the US and China lock horns again, with the EU as usual stuck in the middle.

Against such a backdrop, Europe’s resilience is evidently waning. Germany, France and the pre-Brexit UK made up the tripod that underpinned the union for almost 50 years, despite all their squabbles and pursuits of national and international interests, which at times did not align.

Today, the leaders in France and Germany must regain their voices and the EU its purpose. Brussels should abandon its “speak” that rarely makes sense to the wider public outside of the European Commission’s bubble, such as the need for “urgent progress” and for countries and their leaders to take “decisive steps” and “without delay.” It has to actively pursue a new covenant that remaps the purpose of the union, as its post-Second World War raison d’etre has been ringing increasingly hollow for some time now.

The rise of the far right and populist leftist parties is no doubt shaking the foundations of the EU’s stability and purpose.

Mohamed Chebaro

The new generations in EU member states’ populations hardly understand the reasons behind the bloc’s formation, instead bashing its institutions and neglecting the many achievements that made it an island of quasi-freedom, where human dignity and rights are upheld as much as possible and against all odds.

To avoid imperiling itself, maybe nations in the EU should heed the words of former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said that the bloc’s “reason for being” is under threat. There should be a rush to implement the recommendations of Draghi’s authoritative report, published in September, which called for EU nations to invest jointly in excess of €800 billion ($845 billion) annually on areas such as artificial intelligence, green technology and defense to boost the bloc’s flagging growth, competitiveness and, above all, security.

This would ensure that the EU could withstand the appetite of the less-than-scrupulous forces that want a toothless Brussels to be sandwiched between a resurgent East and an increasingly neoliberal, vicious free-market and corporate-dominated West.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.