What the Arakan Army’s rise means for the Rohingya

The Arakan Army is emerging as the dominant force in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, a dramatic shift that could redefine the region’s political landscape. Over the past year, this group has not only entrenched itself militarily, but it has also sought to carve out a role as a governing authority. This transformation, while significant, brings both opportunities and challenges for Rakhine’s people, including the long-persecuted Rohingya minority.

The Arakan Army’s military achievements are striking. By mid-October, it had established control over an estimated two-thirds of Rakhine State, including critical areas such as the state capital Sittwe, the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and the Myanmar military’s strategically important Western Command base. This consolidation is underpinned by the creation of nine military zones across the state and the deployment of thousands of troops in allied territories.

This rise from obscurity is remarkable. Founded in 2009 with just 26 members, the Arakan Army now fields a force of about 40,000 troops. Its rapid growth reflects both its military prowess and its ability to position itself as a credible alternative to Myanmar’s junta.

Yet, despite its successes on the battlefield, it faces significant governance challenges. The International Crisis Group notes that, while the Arakan Army has established de facto control over much of Rakhine, it lacks the capacity to address the state’s fundamental socioeconomic needs. The coming years will test whether it can translate its military dominance into effective governance.

The coming years will test whether the group can translate its military dominance into effective governance

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The Arakan Army has already taken steps toward governance. Even before the 2021 coup, it managed administrative and judiciary services in parts of Rakhine. Since gaining more territory, it has sought to establish legitimacy by engaging with diverse communities. For instance, it invited Rohingya representatives into its governance mechanisms and played a leading role in post-Cyclone Mocha recovery efforts in May 2023.

These moves are critical for a state as fragmented as Rakhine, where ethnic and communal divisions run deep. By fostering inclusion, the Arakan Army has an opportunity to unify Rakhine’s communities and build a foundation for sustainable governance.

However, its track record is mixed. In April and May, during the final stages of its offensive against junta forces, the group committed atrocities against civilians, including the shelling, looting and burning of Rohingya neighborhoods in Buthidaung Township. These actions, which forced thousands to flee, underscore the tension between its aspirations and its actions on the ground.

The rise of the Arakan Army also changes the calculus for the Rohingya, who have historically borne the brunt of Myanmar’s ethnic strife. Its inclusive overtures, such as engaging Rohingya representatives, are promising. However, these gestures must be accompanied by genuine efforts to protect Rohingya communities and ensure their rights.

The group’s actions during the Buthidaung offensive highlight the precarious position of the Rohingya. While the Arakan Army may view the Rohingya as a potential constituency, its willingness to commit violence against them suggests that ethnic hierarchies and power struggles still dominate Rakhine’s politics.

For the Rohingya, the group’s rise presents both risks and opportunities. On the one hand, its dominance could offer a respite from the systematic persecution they have faced under the junta. On the other hand, its ability to govern inclusively and protect minority rights remains unproven.

For the Rohingya, its ascent is a double-edged sword, offering hope for change but also exposing them to new risks

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

As the Arakan Army transitions from a rebel force to a governing authority, it will face immense challenges. Rakhine is one of Myanmar’s poorest states, with high levels of poverty, displacement and ethnic tension. Addressing these issues requires more than military strength; it demands a commitment to inclusive governance, economic development and reconciliation.

The group’s relationship with the Rohingya will be a litmus test for its governance. If it can protect Rohingya communities, integrate them into its governance structures and address their grievances, it could pave the way for a more stable and inclusive Rakhine. However, continued violence and exclusion will only deepen the state’s divisions.

The international community has a role to play in shaping Rakhine’s future. Diplomatic engagement with the Arakan Army should prioritize the protection of minority rights and the establishment of inclusive governance. Humanitarian assistance should be directed toward addressing the state’s urgent socioeconomic needs, particularly in Rohingya communities.

At the same time, accountability for human rights abuses must remain a priority. Its actions in Buthidaung demonstrate the risks of unchecked power. Holding all actors accountable, including the Arakan Army, is essential for building a foundation of trust and justice in Rakhine.

The group’s rise marks a new chapter in Rakhine’s troubled history. Its military dominance offers an opportunity to break free from decades of junta rule, but its ability to govern inclusively and address the state’s deep-seated challenges remains uncertain. For the Rohingya, its ascent is a double-edged sword, offering hope for change but also exposing them to new risks.

The road ahead for the Arakan Army and Rakhine is fraught with challenges. Success will depend on the group’s willingness to transcend its origins as a rebel force and embrace its responsibilities as a governing authority. For the sake of Rakhine’s diverse communities, including the Rohingya, this transition cannot come soon enough.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim