Bangladesh upheaval will only add to Rohingya fears

The ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has plunged Bangladesh into a state of uncertainty. It raises questions about the future direction of the country, especially concerning one of its most pressing humanitarian issues: the Rohingya crisis.
The Rohingya, a stateless Muslim minority who have fled persecution in Myanmar, now find themselves in an even more precarious position following the current upheaval. Over the years, Bangladesh has become a reluctant host to almost 1 million Rohingya refugees, primarily in the sprawling camps of Cox’s Bazar, which constitute the largest refugee settlement in the world. This population influx began in earnest during the Rohingya genocide when Hasina’s administration allowed these desperate individuals to seek shelter within Bangladesh’s borders.
The presence of such a large refugee population has always been a contentious issue in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Successive governments have struggled with the logistical, economic, and social burdens that the refugees impose. The lack of a coherent plan for their repatriation or integration has exacerbated these challenges, leaving the refugees in limbo. The situation is further complicated by Bangladesh’s own struggles with overpopulation; limited resources; and the adverse impacts of climate change which are steadily eroding its landmass.
While Hasina’s administration faced significant criticism for the lack of a long-term strategy, there was also an understanding that the humanitarian response aligned with the principles of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the country’s founding father. This alignment often stifled dissent within the political sphere, as Hasina’s decisions were seen as an extension of her father’s legacy.
However, with the anticipated ascension of a new leadership, this implicit consensus is likely to dissolve. The political calculus is expected to shift dramatically, as the new leadership will not be as tethered to the historical continuity of the founding father. This opens the door to a more critical assessment of Hasina’s policies, especially concerning the Rohingya refugees.

The Rohingya crisis is a multifaceted humanitarian disaster that requires coordinated international efforts.

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Economically, the burden of hosting the Rohingya is staggering. Reports estimate that Bangladesh spends close to $1 billion annually on maintaining the refugee camps and providing basic necessities. This expenditure is a significant drain on a country still grappling with poverty and development challenges. It is highly probable that a new leader, seeking to assert their independence and responsiveness to domestic concerns, will push for more aggressive measures to address this financial drain.
One potential avenue for action is increased diplomatic pressure on Myanmar to begin repatriations. While previous efforts have been largely unsuccessful, a new leadership might leverage Bangladesh’s growing regional influence and its relationships within ASEAN to forge a more robust international response. This could involve more direct appeals to global powers, more stringent demands for international aid, and a concerted effort to hold Myanmar accountable for creating conditions conducive to the safe return of the Rohingya.
However, this is easier said than done. The geopolitical dynamics of Southeast Asia, particularly the influence of China and India, complicate any unilateral action Bangladesh might wish to take. Furthermore, the Rohingya crisis is not just a bilateral issue, but a multifaceted humanitarian disaster requiring coordinated international efforts. The new leadership in Bangladesh will need to navigate these complex waters carefully, balancing domestic pressures with the realities of international diplomacy.
The uncertainty surrounding the future of the Rohingya in Bangladesh highlights the broader implications of Hasina’s ouster. As the country prepares for a new era of leadership, the incoming government will face the daunting task of addressing both the immediate needs of nearly 1 million stateless people and the long-term strategic interests of the nation. This transition period is fraught with risks, but also offers an opportunity to reset and potentially resolve one of the most protracted refugee crises of our time.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim