US election campaign heats up, alarming partners

The Republican Convention gave Donald Trump’s campaign a boost on Monday as it endorsed him as expected. The pomp and circumstance of party solidarity was especially enthusiastic coming just days after the attack on the former president.
Saturday’s attempted assassination was the latest sign of the extreme polarization of American politics during this election campaign, bringing the country dangerously close to a serious political crisis.
I witnessed these divisions up close in Washington recently. I was witness to history, not in the most glorious way, on June 27, when the two main contenders, Joe Biden and Trump, debated each other. I had spent days in the US capital prior to the debate and noticed the deep fissures in the way people anticipated the event.
The debate was a letdown, to say the least. Having lived in the US for some 24 years and followed its presidential debates for much longer, I had seen many that were below par, but this one was much more so. Some historians have already dubbed it the worst presidential debate ever.
Conservative media outlets relished Biden’s poor showing. The New York Post, for one, led the next day by blaring, “Time to Go, Joe!” on its front page. Other reactions included “it made me weep,” “a total and unmitigated disaster,” and so on.
The pressure piled on as usually pro-Biden media and opinion writers excoriated the president. “Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for reelection,” New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote the next day. “Biden has been a friend” for decades, Friedman added, but “he should preserve his dignity and leave the stage at the end of this term.”
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote: “This can’t continue. I am sorry to say this harsh thing, but allowing him to go forward at this point looks like elder abuse.” She called on Democrats to choose a different candidate before it is too late. This idea was supported by others. The Financial Times’ Edward Luce said: “The best that can be said of Joe Biden’s stumbling debate performance was that it took place in June.” This idea was echoed by Mark Leibovich in The Atlantic.
Other former Biden supporters chipped in. Actor George Clooney, who had earlier hosted a fundraiser for the president, wrote an Op-Ed in The New York Times that was titled, “I love Joe Biden. But we need a new nominee.” He called on Biden to step aside and allow another candidate to lead the party in the November election. Filmmakers Stephen King and Rob Reiner echoed Clooney’s call, as did a slew of Hollywood celebrities who have been ardent supporters of the Democratic Party.
Senior party leaders kept their distance from these public calls, preferring to discuss the matter privately with the president. But there were dozens of members of Congress, fundraisers and activists who supported calls for the president to step aside and for the Democrats to quickly regroup under a different leader.
Going into the debate, polls showed that about 70 percent of Americans thought Biden was too old to serve a second term, but Democrats had largely lined up behind him as the most likely nominee to win, dismissing concerns about his frequent gaffes and inarticulate answers. But last month’s 90-minute debate confirmed their worst fears. His performance failed to reassure Democrats that he can retain the White House and avoid a defeat in the congressional elections. 

Saturday’s attempted assassination was the latest sign of the extreme polarization of American politics during this election campaign.

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Nevertheless, key Democratic leaders maintained a united front, at least publicly, supporting the president’s wish to run for a second term. Some supporters recalled previous times in American history when a nominee was able to recover, citing Ronald Reagan’s comeback to win a second term in 1984 after a disastrous first debate.
However, their hopes of winning the November polls under Biden’s leadership appear to have been dampened after the upsurge in Trump’s support following the attempt on his life on Saturday and the following celebratory Republican Convention, where Trump, bandaged but defiant, accepted his party’s nomination and picked a running mate. While such surges can be transitory, the Trump campaign appears to be seizing the momentum and he now appears to be the most likely winner in November, if the Democrats are unable to reverse Trump’s winning streak.
Trump appears to be on a roll. Besides the debate, in which his opponent stumbled, and the convention, where Trump shone, he garnered genuine sympathy after he was nearly killed by a would-be assassin’s bullet. His courage and defiance in the face of danger were not lost on observers.
In addition, the courts have also helped him stay at the top of his game. There was a low point in May, when a New York court convicted him of 34 felonies for falsifying business records related to a hush money payment ahead of the 2016 presidential election. However, more recently, the courts have been kinder to the former president. On July 1, the US Supreme Court ruled that he cannot be prosecuted for actions that were within his constitutional powers as president, throwing out a lower court’s decision to the contrary. And this week, a federal judge in Florida dismissed the classified documents case against Trump, siding with his defense lawyers, who said the special counsel who filed the charges was illegally appointed by the Justice Department.
While Biden’s adversaries are naturally exaggerating his frequent faux pas, such as introducing President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine as “President Putin” at the NATO Summit in Washington last week, the question should not be whether the president is lucid or if he has some cognitive challenges, but whether he is the best candidate to lead the US in the next four years. In other words, an incumbent need not get a second term if the voters find someone better to lead the country. In American history, there have been about a dozen one-term presidents.
American elections are largely a domestic affair and the rest of the world will deal with whoever is chosen by US voters. However, the geopolitical repercussions of these elections should not be underestimated. US decisions on global issues are extremely important.
Take the war in Gaza, which the US has failed to stop despite the fact that it is Israel’s main supporter and provider of the arms it uses in conducting the war and, as such, is the only country with the ability to end the war and start the region on the path toward peace. Whether it is fighting terrorism, piracy or maintaining maritime security, the US is a key player. The EU and NATO will be equally concerned if the next president does not share their priorities.
With the unparalleled powers of American presidents, it matters to the world who occupies the White House. It would be wise to start planning for the different scenarios come Jan. 20, 2025, when a new presidential term commences.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC.
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