Climate change a huge threat to disaster reduction agenda

Ahead of Thursday’s International Day for Disaster Reduction, there was an extraordinary reminder of the game-changing impact that climate change could have on this agenda.

In the last year, the UN has asserted there were some 432 disastrous events related to natural hazards worldwide, with an estimated $252 billion of economic damage reported, but this could significantly increase as global warming intensifies. On Monday, the UN and the Red Cross launched a hard-hitting study that forecasts that heat waves will become so extreme in regions like Southern Asia, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa that they could make human life there unsustainable within decades, triggering “large-scale suffering and loss of life.”

It is forecast that the number of poor people living in extreme heat conditions in urban areas will jump by 700 percent by 2050. However, one critical point made in the report is that this tragedy is already unfolding, as exemplified by the climate catastrophes in Pakistan and Somalia this year. The organizations warned that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, the world will face “previously unimaginable levels of extreme heat.”

As the Egyptian government finalizes its plans for next month’s COP27 climate summit, this report is a chilling reminder of the impact of global warming, especially in the developing world, where much of the continued growth of the planet’s population — from about 7.7 billion today to as much as 10 billion in 30 years’ time — will be most keenly felt. According to the UN, more than half of this population growth will be concentrated in nine countries, mainly in the developing world and particularly in so-called megacities.

By the end of 2008, there were 26 megacities (cities of 10 million or more inhabitants). But by 2030, the world is projected to have 43. Key megacities include New Delhi (whose population was 29 million in 2018), Shanghai (26 million) and Mexico City and Sao Paulo (both 22 million). Cairo, Mumbai, Beijing and Dhaka also all have about 20 million inhabitants.

Despite the economic success of many megacities, governments are preparing for the growing risks they pose. It is therefore fitting that one of the discussion points of COP27 in Egypt will be the foundations for more sustainable development models for large urban areas.

New report is a chilling reminder of the impact of global warming, especially in the developing world.

Andrew Hammond

As megacities continue to grow, demands will increase as supplies of food, water and resources for industries and infrastructure require energy for transportation. The associated increased carbon dioxide emissions will contribute to global warming.

There is a pressing need for urban areas to develop emergency refuge areas, or what this week’s UN report calls “thermally appropriate” shelters and “cooling centers.” In most cases, such refuges will need to be built from scratch.

Taken together, the prizes for getting this agenda right remain huge, including safer, cleaner and more sustainable urban living. However, the challenges are massive too, especially the financing gap. With COP27 on the horizon, will we seize the remaining window of opportunity that may still exist or let it slip through our fingers?

• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.