Countries must start preparing for a population decline

A report released this week by the UN on the current and future global population scenario crystalized some of the trends that have been observed over the past decade and which have led to calls by experts to review the way governments treat the issue.
The global population is expected to continue rising for the foreseeable future. Later this year, the world should welcome its 8 billionth citizen. The report predicts that, though the world’s population growth has slowed, the momentum of the past, which has led to a large youth population in mainly the developing nations of Asia and Africa, will see the population rise to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and then stabilize at 10.4 billion by the turn of the century.
The “World Population Prospects” report states that, since 1950, the average fertility of the world’s population has declined sharply from more than five to 2.3 births per woman and this is expected to drop further to 2.1 by 2050, which is considered to be the replacement rate, or just about enough to keep the population stable. The drop in fertility rate also meant the global growth rate fell to below 1 percent in 2020 — the first time this has happened since 1950.
The other big change, according to the UN report, is that more than half the future growth in population will come from just eight nations: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The most rapid growth in the world is expected to come from 46 least developed nations, which will double their population between 2022 and 2050. Most parts of the world are expected to peak in terms of population and even begin declining by 2100.
At the same time, the populations of 61 nations are expected to fall by at least 1 percent by 2050. The decline is expected to be sharpest in Europe, which is already witnessing the phenomenon of emptying villages and even towns, notably in Italy and Spain. However, the sharpest falls are likely to be seen in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine, where the populations could fall by as much as 20 percent.
The impact of such a large drop in population on the economies and societies of these countries is something that political leaders need to start worrying about. One can already see in Europe the severe economic contraction and social impacts of just a slight decline in population.

One can already see in Europe the severe economic contraction and social impacts of just a slight decline in population.

Ranvir S. Nayar

Some countries have begun to adapt their policies accordingly by encouraging migration, though most are still insisting on their preference for skilled or even highly skilled manpower, while the jobs that are largely going unfulfilled or whose numbers are expected to jump sharply in the coming years are generally for the low-skilled or unskilled. The need for a young worker in an advanced scientific laboratory or as a doctor in a hospital will be far lower than the need for caretakers in old age homes or farm laborers.
The countries seeking inward migration will hence have to readjust their policies and recalibrate their priorities by also ensuring that their schemes target these categories of workers. Farms, factories and workshops across Europe are already emptying out or functioning far below capacity due to a shortage of workers; this is hurting economies across the continent. The problem is set to become more widespread and severe, and not just in Europe, but also developed Asian economies like South Korea and Japan, which are facing a rapid decline in their populations.
Governments have less than two decades to come up with a coherent and global strategy to deal with this problem, which will become a major hurdle to maintaining economic and social stability. Hence, politicians, irrespective of their ideology or propaganda, need to develop realistic and implementable policies to prepare for the upcoming trouble.
The situation will become increasingly severe as the world’s largest country, China, is already experiencing a shortage of workers in some domains due to its declining population. This trend is set to accelerate in the years to come and, in perhaps three decades, China itself will have to rely on migrants to keep its economy humming.
Unfortunately, India is also expected to follow China, perhaps by 2070, when its population will begin declining. This fall will accelerate by the turn of the century, creating a dearth of people.
Few leaders realize or are ready to acknowledge the severity of the challenge that a complete U-turn in the global population scenario within the same century will mean for the world. Countries have a small and perhaps rapidly closing window in which to act. Every year wasted may end up costing them and the world a huge price.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group.