Hezbollah causing the destruction of itself and Lebanon

It is undeniable that Hezbollah is being hit and destroyed like never before. It hit Israel with extreme violence at the beginning of the Gaza war to try and extract gains. This message of violence has been answered by Israel in multiples and it is now inflicting a total reckoning on Hezbollah. This has also come at the price of the destruction of Lebanon and Lebanese lives.

Hezbollah, through its actions, has brought chaos to Lebanon, just like in 2006. Yet, this time, while Israel refuses any mediation (and why would Tel Aviv accept it?), opposition groups in Lebanon have become much more vocal than in the past. They are now clearly and openly accusing Hezbollah of being responsible for this destruction. It has, through another reckless and unilateral decision of war, brought even more despair to Lebanon.

It is clear now that Hezbollah, despite its declarations, is unable to cope with Israel’s superior capabilities. The question of the timing of the exploding pager operation —which, we must remember, even injured the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon — has now been answered. Yet, the main question is what Hezbollah will do in the face of this mounting external and internal pressure. The answer is the same as in the past: violence against the Lebanese.

Whenever Hezbollah or the Syrian regime — its predecessor as occupier of Lebanon — were pressured externally, they chose to assassinate Lebanese. We are now back to the UN Security Council Resolution 1559 scenario of extreme pressure, which led to the waves of assassinations we all remember. And so, because it is weakened and unable to match Israel militarily, Hezbollah will go after the Lebanese voices of freedom.

Because it is weakened and unable to match Israel militarily, Hezbollah will go after the Lebanese voices of freedom

Khaled Abou Zahr

On top of the horrors of death of the current war due to this group’s unilateral decision, it will also add the death of its critics and opponents. The momentum for these actions has already been set in the same way as in the past. A clear indicator is an increase in the number of accusations of treason against journalists and truly free voices, mainly through social media for now.

Once again, lists are circulating. While in the past they were spread via rumors and taxi drivers, now these lists circulate openly on social media and WhatsApp. This season of threats has even added video clips of the filthiest kind, created by artificial intelligence, to dehumanize its critics. It is the signature of this group and a sign of its level of despair.

The pressure of potential defeat has not only contributed to the destruction of Hezbollah’s infrastructure, but also its image of might and strength. Despite the destruction the Lebanese are enduring, they are still seeing hope and a potential end to this never-ending cycle of violence. They are now clearly articulating the way out, which is by openly requesting for Hezbollah to surrender its weapons to the Lebanese Armed Forces. In response, the group is accusing the Lebanese opposition of seeking to use the Israelis to strengthen their position against it.

This increase in blaming Hezbollah for the situation and the growing defiance, along with the demand to an end of its special status, is something the armed militia will look to quell with brutal force. It will look to do so before the end of the war, despite what its internet influencers are stating. Hezbollah knows, just like the Syrian regime did in the past, that its violence against the Lebanese will kill two birds with one stone. The first is to reestablish deterrence, not toward Tel Aviv but the voices of freedom in Lebanon, and the second is to add pressure to the international mediation efforts to stop the war.

Unsurprisingly, these are the methods of an occupying force. And we also need to remind people that, in October 2023, the only occupying force was Hezbollah. I am indeed rehashing myself when I state that Israel was no longer occupying Lebanon following its unilateral withdrawal in 2000. There was hence no reason for Lebanon’s involvement.

Hezbollah knows, just like the Syrian regime did in the past, that its violence against the Lebanese will kill two birds with one stone

Khaled Abou Zahr

Everyone is heartbroken and despairing when seeing the destruction taking place today. Yet, the Lebanese pundits that do not condemn, first and foremost, the action that led to this expected Israeli reaction are and will always be accomplices in the violence that Hezbollah inflicted yesterday and will inflict tomorrow and every day on the free Lebanese. They are accomplices in the violence against journalists we have already witnessed, which is nothing but a trial balloon for what is to come. We are now in Hezbollah’s intimidation phase. Despite the war, it must be denounced and vehemently opposed to stop the next phase of possible assassinations.

Moreover, if people do not stand up for Lebanon now, they will live under the rubble and foreign domination in this never-ending cycle. We are also noticing a tentative effort by Hezbollah to break the opposition by accusing some of treason and threatening them, while praising others for standing with the refugees from the south. These are futile methods that everyone should be aware of and reject.

Hezbollah is now demonizing its critics in the worst possible way. The same methodology was used before assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Gebran Tueni, Samir Kassir, George Hawi, Pierre Gemayel, Walid Eido, Antoine Ghanem, Francois Al-Hajj, Mohammed Chatah and Lokman Slim. The same volatile situation and pressure on Hezbollah exist today as during the waves of assassination of the past.

Hezbollah has caused, just like in 2006 and for absolutely no reason, the destruction of Lebanon. As it faces a close to existential threat of annihilation and is unable to answer the Israelis, it will fight the Lebanese who are honorable and courageous enough to demand the surrender of its military arsenal. This time, the voices of freedom need to win.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.