‘Petrostates’ must be embraced in climate fight, not scorned

When Dr. Sultan Al-Jaber, president of last year’s COP28 climate conference in Dubai, seasoned his opening remarks with a passing reference to the vital role being played by the big fossil fuel producers in the transition to renewable energy, many commentators responded with predictable scorn.

But when the president of Azerbaijan greeted delegates at the start of COP29, which is due to conclude in Baku on Friday, with an unexpectedly muscular defense of the oil industry, his remarks were met with undiluted outrage.

President Ilham Aliyev’s “glorification” of fossil fuel was “inappropriate,” an “abuse of the stage.” Hosting the climate talks in a “petrostate” such as Azerbaijan was “a dark joke.” But Aliyev’s only “offense” was to have spoken the truth.

Azerbaijan’s oil and gas, like all natural resources, were “a gift from God,” he said, and “countries should not be blamed for having them and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market, because the market needs them. The people need them.”

He had a point. The Industrial Revolution was not started by Azerbaijan or Saudi Arabia or any of the other Gulf states fortunate enough to have found themselves sitting on some of the world’s greatest deposits of fossil fuels.

That was the work initially of Great Britain, followed by the rest of Europe, which in the 18th century began to industrialize manufacturing processes and transportation, first with coal and then, increasingly, oil and gas.

Criticism of states such as Azerbaijan and the UAE hosting COP summits ignores the vibrant green agendas underway in both countries

Jonathan Gornall

Small wonder that Aliyev also had something to say about what he called “political hypocrisy.” He reminded the delegates that, two years ago, the EU, facing serious energy shortages, had come cap in hand to Azerbaijan for its gas, which is now keeping the lights on in at least eight European countries.

Furthermore, criticism of “petrostates” such as Azerbaijan and the UAE hosting COP summits ignores the vibrant green agendas underway in both countries.

The UAE’s clean energy pioneer, Masdar, which is part-owned by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has dozens of wind turbine farms and solar plants operating around the world, including the UK’s London Array, one of the world’s largest offshore wind farms.

In Azerbaijan, Masdar last year inaugurated the biggest solar power plant in the region, Saudi Arabian renewables company ACWA Power is constructing a large-scale wind farm and Baku has plans to build solar, wind and hydro power stations generating a total of 6 gigawatts by 2030.

“So, this is my message,” Aliyev concluded. “As the President of COP29, of course, we will be strong advocates for the green transition, and we’re doing it. But at the same time, we must be realistic.”

Yet, inevitably, realism was in short supply. As the talks progressed, more confected outrage greeted the “revelation” that among the 72,000 registered delegates from 196 countries who attended the summit were hundreds of representatives of oil, coal and gas companies — also increasingly referred to in some media circles collectively as “the planet-heating industry.”

But both Aliyev and Al-Jaber had aired a number of simple truths, rarely acknowledged in the all-important climate debate and anathema to the well-meaning but woefully ill-informed protest groups baying for an immediate end to fossil fuel extraction. As Al-Jaber said at COP28, while “a phase-down and a phase-out of fossil fuel in my view is inevitable (and) essential … we need to be really serious and pragmatic about it … unless you want to take the world back into caves.”

Furthermore, without the fossil fuel industry and its know-how and investment in transitional technologies, such as wind and solar power, synthetic green fuels and carbon capture, the world stands no chance whatsoever of achieving the objective enshrined in the Paris climate agreement of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

There is also the small matter of the $2.4 trillion per year in external finance which, according to an assessment by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, will be required by developing countries by 2030. This investment is necessary to mitigate the effects of the climate change begun by the developed world in the 18th century and to help developing countries to transition more quickly to renewable energy sources.

The profits fossil fuels generate are the only realistic source of the vast green investment that is required in developing nations

Jonathan Gornall

This is not a question of charity. According to the Center for Global Development, although developed countries are responsible for 79 percent of historical carbon emissions, 63 percent is currently generated by developing countries. Without these countries on board, no matter how many wind farms, solar installations and nuclear power plants come on stream in the rest of the world, climate change will remain a runaway train.

So where is the money going to come from to invest in renewable energy in the developing world?

Not only are fossil fuels necessary to keep the modern world turning as we transition to renewables, the profits they generate are also the only realistic source of the vast green investment that is required in developing nations.

To take just one example, ACWA Power, in which the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund is a major shareholder, has so far invested no less than $7 billion in Africa’s renewable energy sector. That, as company CEO Marco Arcelli told last month’s Future Investment Initiative New Africa Summit in Riyadh, makes ACWA Power “the largest energy transition company today, certainly a leading investor, in Africa.”

Those who denigrate the “petrostates” should remember that almost every material thing we value in the modern world is made from or powered by the fossil fuels they produce and that keeping the lights on and the wheels of industry turning during the ongoing transition to renewables is utterly dependent upon them continuing to do so for years to come.

Instead of haranguing them and excluding them from the most portentous debate in the history of humankind, the world should be embracing their expertise and the sheer power of their ability to finance and effect technological change.

COP29 marks the second time in a row that the climate change summit has been hosted in a major oil-producing nation. COP30, to be held next year in Brazil, one of the world’s top 10 producers of oil, will be the third.

Those who really care about the planet, as opposed to those who are interested only in peddling divisiveness, should welcome the increasing inclusivity of the UN’s COP process because, without it, climate change may be unstoppable.

• Jonathan Gornall is a British journalist, formerly with The Times, who has lived and worked in the Middle East and is now based in the UK.