Will Tehran rejoice and Netanyahu worry following US-Iran agreement?

History may repeat itself. We do not forget the iconic scene of Iranian Minister Javad Zarif standing on the balcony of the Palais Coburg Hotel in Vienna 11 years ago, waving to journalists with a smile after signing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

It was a spectacular Iranian victory, co-signed by US President Barack Obama. All of Europe supported it, and China and Russia were witnesses.

Vienna’s joy was short-lived as the JCPOA was quickly torn up by Obama’s successor, Donald Trump. Relations became strained, ports were closed, oil tankers were pursued, and Iran was besieged.

The new agreement struck by US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, subsequently signed by President Trump, is preliminary, with a deadline of no less than two months to reach a final detailed agreement. Trump wants a propaganda victory, deliberately signing it at the Palace of Versailles, echoing the treaty that ended World War I. However, Versailles was also a symbol of a treaty of sin; it led to the more destructive World War II.

Ghalibaf can feel extremely pleased with the victory over Trump’s negotiating team, led by Vance and his advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

In the chaos and ambiguity surrounding the framework agreement, I believe the most important question is not about opening the Strait of Hormuz, or collecting Iran’s frozen billions, or supporting Iran with an additional $300 billion, but about its continuity and the possibility of its collapse.

The agreement rehabilitates Tehran’s regime as a regional power.

Most of the funds Iran will acquire in the coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Vance’s theory is that the Iranian regime will discover through the new economic rescue that peace is its best option. Unfortunately, it echoes what Obama said after signing the JCPOA. In April 2015, he stated that the agreement “will strengthen the more moderate forces within Iran.”

Obama’s theory was quickly proven wrong as the Iranian regime intensified its crackdown on its citizens, benefiting from its political victory and new funds. The Quds Force led by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps head Qasem Soleimani encroached beyond its borders, with militias flocking to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and other places.

Most of the funds Tehran will acquire in the coming weeks are likely to go primarily towards strengthening the military position, not to support living conditions or the Iranian economy. The Iranian leadership fears the possibility of a return to war against it, and its political doctrine considers Iran a military power, harnessing all its resources for this strategy.

Tehran’s new leadership will need enormous sums to rehabilitate its defensive and offensive capabilities, utilizing the frozen funds and significant oil sales at high prices it will obtain under the agreement.

Meanwhile, Israel watches the scene with anger, anxiety, and vigilance. It is unlikely to accept Iran’s return as a major regional power threatening it, especially after having sought to undermine it. Therefore, it will seek to pressure Trump to correct the course of negotiations.

The framework agreement will not only face objections from Israel, and partly the Gulf, but also skepticism from within the Trump administration.

Despite its many drawbacks, the positive aspect of the preliminary agreement is that it has made it easier for both parties to back away from fighting, which would have been difficult given domestic and international public opinion. It also offers both sides an opportunity to return and negotiate the details. There are many pitfalls that the agreement did not address and will be points of concern later, and negotiators may succeed in restricting Iran’s activities and military capabilities.

Despite his reprimands and insults to Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump cannot ignore him or Israeli public opinion. He needs American Jewish support. Trump also cannot ignore the Republican Party hawks; they are his inner circle and protect his back in Congressional conflicts. All of them are satisfied with the nuclear agreement, but some will oppose giving Iran free rein in the region.

The final conclusion is that lifting sanctions and allowing it to sell oil will provide Iran with about $200 billion annually, along with a financial fund for its reconstruction, which will ultimately grant it about half a trillion dollars. This will make Iran a greater monster than it was before.

It is likely that Netanyahu will return to lead the military scene in the region if subsequent negotiations fail to change Iran’s path.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @aalrashed