Renewed political will needed to end Sudan war

The protracted civil conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces militia, is one of the most devastating humanitarian catastrophes of this era. The power struggle has metastasized into a multifaceted crisis characterized by widespread violence against civilians, systemic sexual violence, famine-like conditions and mass displacement.

Unfortunately, the situation is worsening, with technological escalations such as the proliferation of drone warfare amplifying the lethality of hostilities and exacting an intolerable toll on noncombatant populations.

Recent data from the UN underscores the gravity of this escalation. More than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes in Sudan during the first five months of this year alone. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk, addressing the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Monday, said “the horrific conflict has expanded and escalated, marked by a sharp increase in the use of drone warfare.”

This surge has transformed drones into the predominant instrument of destruction, often targeting or indiscriminately affecting civilian areas, markets, residential neighborhoods and humanitarian infrastructure.

More than 1,000 civilians were killed in drone strikes in Sudan during the first five months of this year alone

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Compounding the direct fatalities from aerial assaults are “rampant” levels of sexual violence, including rape, as reported by the UN. Such atrocities are not incidental but appear instrumentalized within the broader dynamics of ethnic targeting and territorial control, particularly in regions like Darfur.

While the overall death toll from the conflict remains difficult to ascertain due to access constraints and underreporting, estimates range from tens of thousands to 150,000 to 400,000 when including indirect deaths from starvation, disease and lack of medical care. More than 150 humanitarian workers have been killed, making Sudan one of the deadliest environments for aid operations globally.

The Sudanese crisis is not merely a political or a military confrontation but a profound humanitarian emergency that has displaced millions and pushed vast segments of the population to the brink of survival.

With at least 33 million people — more than half the country’s population — requiring lifesaving assistance, Sudan hosts the world’s largest internal displacement crisis and one of its most acute hunger emergencies. More than 21 million people face acute food insecurity, with famine conditions persisting in parts of Darfur and Kordofan. Disease outbreaks, collapsed healthcare systems, and disrupted water and sanitation infrastructure exacerbate mortality rates.

Women and children bear a disproportionately heavy burden. Estimates indicate that women and girls constitute the majority of the displaced, facing heightened vulnerabilities in overcrowded camps and during flight. UN Women reports that 12.7 million people — predominantly women and girls — now require support related to sexual and gender-based violence, a sharp rise from previous years.

In addition, more than 17 million children are in need of assistance, suffering from acute malnutrition, disrupted education, recruitment into armed groups and grave violations including death, maiming and abduction. In early 2026, hundreds of child casualties were recorded amid intensified fighting.

Amid this dire landscape, we need a genuine political will among Sudanese actors and the international community. A cessation of hostilities cannot be imposed solely through external pressure, it also requires internal commitment to dialogue, accountability and inclusive governance.

A viable path forward necessitates robust collaboration between global powers and African-led institutions

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

A modestly encouraging development occurred on Monday, when Transitional Sovereign Council Chairman Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan received a delegation of EU ambassadors in Khartoum — their first such visit since the outbreak of war. This engagement signals a potential reopening of diplomatic channels in the capital and an opportunity for the EU to advocate for de-escalation and humanitarian access.

Prior initiatives provide instructive precedents and foundations for progress. The Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect Civilians, facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the US in May 2023, emphasized civilian protection, humanitarian corridors and short-term ceasefires.

Complementary efforts, including the Quad initiative involving the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have sought to build on this by proposing structured pathways with two core pillars: an initial humanitarian truce transitioning to a permanent ceasefire and a time-bound political process aimed at civilian-led governance. These initiatives highlight the potential for coordinated regional and global diplomacy.

A viable path forward necessitates robust collaboration between global powers and African-led institutions, particularly the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

In the interim, immediate priorities must include negotiated ceasefires, even if localized or time-limited, to facilitate humanitarian corridors. Safe, rapid and unimpeded access for aid delivery should be nonnegotiable, as should the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and critical infrastructure. Civil society, women’s groups and displaced communities must be central to these processes.

In a nutshell, as the violence and death toll continue to mount in Sudan — with drone strikes and other escalations making 2026 particularly deadly — it is incumbent on the international community to act. The failure to do so will continue to have ripple effects across the Horn of Africa and beyond, including refugee flows, instability and humanitarian spillover. Political will is needed. Humanitarian corridors must be opened and secured, a ceasefire agreed and enforced, and an inclusive political process — under African Union coordination with global partners — pursued.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh