Next UK leader faces a sizable task

As the UK approaches the 10th anniversary of the June 2016 Brexit referendum, it is fair to say that the ghosts of its divisive and ruinous implications persist, despite many people and politicians’ efforts to bury their heads in the sand.

This is particularly evident in the context of the looming Labour Party leadership contest, with Keir Starmer likely to be replaced as prime minister less than two years after his party won a huge majority in Parliament.

Political wars are not unheard of in Britain but they are now having a greater impact on the social fabric, with the country’s multicultural population creaking under the weight of right-wing populists’ antimigration stance. And the UK is not unique, as similar challenges are tearing apart many EU countries.

Andy Burnham, the front runner to be Britain’s next prime minister, must contend with many obstacles that could undermine his candidacy, as well as the candidacies of anyone else aspiring to lead. This raises the legitimate question of whether we are in an age where leading has become a case of diminishing returns, as people everywhere are morphing toward greater impatience, intolerance and unruliness. This is maybe made worse by a digital realm that is magnifying dissent and differences, while sidelining harmony.

Such adversities unfortunately await Burnham, the center-left Greater Manchester mayor. They are the same adversities that Starmer’s leadership has faced, as well as those of the four Conservative prime ministers who ruled in the years following the Brexit referendum.

It seems it is no longer easy to be UK prime minister or a leader anywhere else in the liberal democratic world

Mohamed Chebaro

A YouGov poll on the preferences of Labour Party members this week found that Burnham was ahead of Starmer in a head-to-head contest by 59 percent to 37 percent. And Burnham — if reelected to Parliament in the by-election he is contesting next month — could easily beat the former Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

In our changing world, it seems it is no longer easy to be UK prime minister or a leader anywhere else in the liberal democratic world, regardless of the political tribe one belongs to.

The 2016 referendum did not settle the UK consensus regarding the European question, which has sowed divisions in the country — economically and socially and even regarding the country’s identity — since the 1950s.

Brexit did to the UK economy what the Suez Crisis did to its politics. This has left the UK no longer in Europe, not glued to the hip with the US and off-balance, trying to project the military and security posture of a middle power with a defense budget that is far smaller than its needs.

This has been made evident by the Trump 2.0 presidency. Despite all the soft power work of King Charles, the UK and its European partners can no longer wholly rely on the transatlantic alliance to defend it against Russian aggression in Ukraine. This relationship has also been strained by the US’ war on Iran and the latter’s stranglehold on the flow of energy from the Gulf, which is harming Britain, the EU and their strategic partners in the Middle East.

There have even been demands to rewrite history and only teach along nationalistic lines in schools and universities

Mohamed Chebaro

The dilemma for the next UK PM will be how best to ease the negative ramifications of Brexit. Should negotiations for readmission be on the table again? Or should there be a “light” version of EU membership that only realigns London with the EU rulebook, denying it the weight it once had as a key member of the bloc alongside France and Germany? Also, should Britain become a key player in any European defense structure and how would that impact NATO and the “special relationship” with Washington? Would EU members even want to have this unreliable, indecisive neighbor among them once again?

Even if any new leader manages to get the nation behind their approach to these thorny matters, the UK has also been grappling with growing domestic divisions, exemplified by the growing support for the extreme-right Reform UK and the extreme-left, eco-populist agenda of the Green Party. The narratives of recent rallies have been alarming, eroding the fabric and cohesion of society and leading commentators to warn of the lasting damage to intercommunal relations amid the rise of Reform UK.

The normalization of hate speech and the space given in the media to sharp anti-other voices — alleging, for example, that Muslims in Britain can “never coexist,” while also not sparing Jews or other religious and ethnic groups — should push everyone to stand up and call for a national dialogue to limit the damage and the splintering of society.

Unfortunately, it might already be too late, since the words and deeds of politicians vying for power have ceased to be background noise and have become part of the general political slop that has been fed to the nation since Brexit. Talk of a “foreign invasion” and slogans such as “take back control” and “stop the boats” have become normalized. There have even been demands to rewrite history and only teach along nationalistic lines in schools and universities, while celebrating “raising the flag,” even if that marginalizes non-white and ethnic minority citizens.

Politicians may be discouraged from wanting to lead having considered all this. For too long, the system has failed to get to grips with the gravity of the adversity that is tearing apart the nation, the system and its future. Discriminatory politics has been mainstreamed by the media and a less-than-innocent digital realm, supposedly as part of a search for understanding and tolerance. Legitimate debates and concerns should not become vehicles to normalize prejudice. The next British leader, whoever it is, should be ready for a long and painful national conversation about the role of politics and the role of the state in a very volatile world.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.