Three Seas Initiative can boost transatlantic relationship

It is no secret that there is plenty of division in the transatlantic community today. Whether it is US President Donald Trump’s statements on Greenland, Europe’s slowness to invest more in its defense capabilities, uncertainty over the war in Iran or tariffs and trade policy placing long-standing allies at odds, it is safe to say that the transatlantic relationship has seen better days.

But last week in Dubrovnik, Croatia, both sides of the Atlantic found common ground at the 11th Three Seas Initiative Summit.

The Three Seas Initiative was created by Poland and Croatia in 2015 to better connect regional transport, trade and energy links in Central and Eastern Europe. The three seas in the name are the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas. Historically, much of the region’s infrastructure ran east to west because of the role the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact played during the Cold War. This left north-south connectivity lacking.

Today, there are 13 countries in the Three Seas Initiative: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Combined, these countries form a market of 120 million people that generates more than €3.5 trillion ($4 trillion) annually. If taken together, the Three Seas region would be one of the world’s top 10 largest economies. In addition to the 13 members, Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and Montenegro are associated participating states, while the European Commission, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Turkiye and the US serve as strategic partners.

In many ways, the Three Seas Initiative was able to get its start because of the interest Trump took in the program

Luke Coffey

In many ways, the Three Seas Initiative was able to get its start because of the interest Trump took in the program. After the first summit in Dubrovnik in 2016, Trump attended and spoke at the summit in Warsaw in 2017, endorsing the initiative during his first term. With Trump’s strong support, many in Brussels and Berlin initially viewed the initiative with skepticism, seeing it as an American project meant to marginalize Western Europe’s role in Central and Eastern Europe.

But as the years went on, the value of the Three Seas Initiative became accepted across Western Europe. When Joe Biden became president in 2021, some European countries worried that he would jettison America’s role in the initiative. But understanding its strategic importance, he maintained US involvement.

Now, with Trump back in office, the leaders of the region see a new opportunity to reinvigorate and energize the initiative. This year’s summit in Dubrovnik, marking a decade since the first Three Seas gathering in the same city in 2016, was by and large a success. There are several important observations to be made.

First, it is clear that the US under Trump is going to be active in the region. At a time when America has been downgrading its participation in some NATO meetings, Washington sent a Cabinet member, Energy Secretary Chris Wright, to lead a large delegation to Dubrovnik.

This resulted in a series of energy investments and agreements, including support for more US liquefied natural gas exports to Central and Eastern Europe and American investment in regional pipelines. One notable example is the Southern Gas Interconnection, which will connect Croatia’s LNG infrastructure with Bosnia and Herzegovina, allowing that country to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. This is the kind of practical project the Three Seas Initiative was created to advance.

Another important observation from the summit was the emphasis on improving connectivity with other regional infrastructure and trade projects, specifically the Middle Corridor. This is the corridor that connects Central Asia through the South Caucasus and then into Europe and global markets, which has become a source of focus for policymakers in recent years. Turkiye serves as the gateway between the Middle Corridor and the Three Seas region. This is why it was notable that Ankara was represented by its foreign minister, Hakan Fidan.

Looking forward, a couple of issues remain unresolved.

US and European policymakers should build on this momentum and use the initiative as a confidence-building measure

Luke Coffey

Firstly, there have been calls for the creation of a permanent secretariat, or at least a headquarters, to ensure that initiatives announced at each annual summit are followed through and completed. Right now, the Three Seas Initiative has no permanent secretariat or headquarters and operates through a rotating presidency that moves from country to country.

But as the initiative grows and becomes more of a geopolitical and economic actor, there is a good argument that it needs greater continuity and enduring leadership. Although the Dubrovnik Declaration acknowledged the need to strengthen the initiative’s governance and called for future consultations, it stopped short of creating a permanent secretariat or headquarters.

There is also the question of future members. Currently, only EU member states can formally join as full members of the Three Seas Initiative. Greece was the most recent country to join, becoming the 13th member in 2023. There is a strong argument that Finland, as a Baltic Sea state, should join as well, serving as the northern terminus of the Three Seas Initiative’s area of responsibility.

But with the recent emphasis on the Middle Corridor and trade and transit links into Central Asia, a creative and ambitious proposal would be to turn the Three Seas Initiative into the Four Seas Initiative by including the Caspian Sea and the countries of the South Caucasus as players in the platform.

Furthermore, the idea that the Three Seas Initiative should remain exclusively for EU members takes a very political view of geography. No trade, energy or transport infrastructure initiative in Central and Eastern Europe can be fully successful without the involvement of the Western Balkans, most of which are not in the EU.

At a time of discord in the transatlantic relationship, the Three Seas Initiative and the recent summit in Dubrovnik are a bright spot. US and European policymakers should build on this momentum and use the initiative as a confidence-building measure to help get the transatlantic relationship back on track.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey