Regional support crucial for Turkiye’s new Syria policy

Syria remains highly fragile, facing several challenges and risks. This makes it essential for Turkiye to secure broad regional support for its evolving strategy in the country, which has gone through various phases of instability and seen many power struggles involving several actors.

Syria has served as a critical litmus test for relations among regional states, as it has significantly impacted their security perceptions. Throughout the crisis, regional states have pursued divergent policies in Syria, leading to tensions and, at times, clashing with Turkiye’s approach. This fragmentation among regional states added further complexity in Syria and played into the hands of the Assad regime and its allies. However, the shifting dynamics in Syria are beginning to alter the regional balance, opening the door for greater collaboration among regional actors to shape a new Syria.

A new regional order is emerging with the collapse of the Assad regime. The region is undergoing its own version of the fall of the Iron Curtain. Just as the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 reshaped power dynamics in Iraq and the broader Middle East, the fall of Bashar Assad will lead to new configurations both within Damascus and across the region. Syria is passing through a challenging phase, which is essential for the emergence of a new state. While a new Syria is to be born, it is crucial for its regional allies to actively support the rebuilding of the state and the establishment of a stable, unified future.

Why is it important for Turkiye to have regional support? Since the onset of the Syrian crisis, while Ankara sought to exert influence, the situation in the country has, in turn, shaped Turkish foreign policy through different phases. Thus, it resulted in a two-way impact — Turkiye’s policies influencing the region, while developments in Syria have, at various points, recalibrated Turkish priorities and impacted Ankara’s relations with regional states.

The fall of Bashar Assad will lead to new configurations both within Damascus and across the region.

Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye shares the longest land border with Syria, stretching more than 900 km. Despite the considerable security, political and economic challenges that this proximity brings, Turkiye remained committed to supporting the opposition and maintaining an open-door policy for Syrian refugees. For Turkiye, Syria is not solely a foreign policy issue as it might be for other countries in the region; it has significant domestic implications as well.

Turkiye, with its significant political and security influence in Syria, aims to strengthen its position by securing broader regional support — especially crucial in a region where cultivating alliances is more beneficial than having adversaries. The Syria of today is different from the one of 13 years ago. The situation in Syria has become increasingly complex and the country remains vulnerable to further instability. At this critical moment, Turkiye needs the support of its regional allies to assist Syrians in building a stable, unified nation within the region.

In Syria, the new leadership will need to rely on Turkiye and other regional allies to establish public order, build institutions and secure the necessary resources. Building a stable Syria would not only be a huge win for its people, but also for Turkiye and the wider region.

Given this, Turkiye has engaged in intense diplomatic efforts since the fall of Assad. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati to discuss Syria. He also traveled to Cairo to attend Thursday’s D-8 Summit, where he held direct talks on Syria with his Egyptian counterpart.

The situation in Syria has become increasingly complex and the country remains vulnerable to further instability.

Sinem Cengiz

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also attended the meeting in Cairo. Before his fall, Assad’s continued hold on power had, in some ways, brought Turkiye and Iran closer together. However, the change of leadership in Syria is likely to shift the balance of relations. Ankara now has the upper hand vis-a-vis Tehran. Moreover, it now has interests aligning more closely with Arab states in the broader region. Iran must carefully assess this shifting dynamic and adapt its policy toward both Turkiye and Syria accordingly. It can either become part of the broader regional support for Syria’s reconstruction or risk being excluded from this emerging order.

A political transition in Syria will require a new set of actors at the table, primarily Syria’s neighbors and the Gulf states. In this context, Turkiye’s role is crucial in aligning closely with regional states and strengthening its ties with the Syrian opposition.

This approach is important, given the lessons of the past. History has shown that efforts to dominate the region have often led to tensions. Rather than making Syria a point of contention, it could become a strong point of collaboration. If Turkiye, along with its regional allies, can contribute to building a stable Syria — though within certain limits — they will all not only enhance their influence in the region but also achieve significant gains.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz