World’s displacement crisis is only getting worse

Can one imagine a year passing nowadays when the number of refugees and internally displaced people declines? Sadly, these circumstances are hard to imagine. The trends are stark and terrifying.

According to the UN, there are a jaw-dropping 120 million-plus in this category, 1.5 percent of the global population. If they formed a country, it would rank as the 13th most populous in the world. This is almost double the figure of a decade ago. Back in 2014, the figure was 60 million, an alarming figure in itself. If this pace continues, it will be 240 million by 2036.

What are the drivers of this massive displacement? Conflict remains key. In 2024, two stand out: Sudan and Gaza.

The horrendous fighting in Sudan, which kicked off in April 2023, has led to 1.2 million refugees and 6 million internally displaced. Chad has taken in by far the most, about 700,000. This replicates the feature of most conflicts, with refugees staying within the same region, largely in neighboring countries and largely never making it to a richer state. It is the poorer ones that still carry the burden. This might confuse a huge percentage of those on the far right in Europe, who think somehow that their countries have a refugee crisis.

The other conflict generating an ever-larger number of refugees is the Middle East war, principally in Gaza and Lebanon. About 90 percent of Palestinians in Gaza have been displaced, some as many as 10 times. One has to remind politicians in Europe and even those in the media that 70 percent of the population in the enclave were already refugees prior to last October. This displacement is forced and, in the case of northern Gaza, Israeli officials have made clear that it is permanent. This is why human rights groups openly refer to it as ethnic cleansing. In the West Bank, Palestinians are also being displaced and, with formal de jure Israeli annexation planned for 2025, many more Palestinians will be ethnically cleansed there too.

As for Lebanon, the Israeli bombing and invasion of the country led to the internal displacement of about 900,000 before last month’s ceasefire deal was reached. More than 550,000 crossed into Syria and thousands more made it to Iraq. This is a country where a quarter of the population were already refugees prior to the latest war.

Meanwhile, the Ukraine war has now lasted for more than 1,000 days. This also continues to drive displacement.

Therefore, much of the global displacement comes down to a failure to resolve or even deescalate conflicts. If the global community remains divided and inward-looking, where will the necessary resolve and patience to handle such wars be found? The UN appears impotent.

Climate change both drives refugee flows and affects refugee communities. Research published in November showed that, of the 120 million displaced, three-quarters — some 90 million people — live in countries with high to extreme exposure to the effects of climate change. For example, Bangladesh, a state prone to flooding, has had to host refugees from Myanmar. What then happens is that the displaced feel forced to move again as a result of flooding, droughts or other climate-related issues. It also makes it less likely that they can return if their areas of origin are so gravely impacted.

This trend is only going to get worse if massive action is not taken.

The dangers of displacement continue, not least during the perilous journeys many take by sea and land. The International Organization for Migration has calculated that, since 2014, more than 70,000 have gone missing while trying to reach safer areas. The Mediterranean alone accounts for more than 30,000 of these.

The Central Mediterranean route remains the most lethal. As a result of 212,100 attempts to cross this route in 2023, about 3,100 are known to have lost their lives. If the Middle Eastern regional war continues, then many more refugees will once again seek to cross the Aegean Sea to Greece. What is clear is that the dangers are far from putting these migrants off, such is their desperation.

Many of the refugees who have succeeded in reaching the richer states of the world have found these countries to be less than hospitable. Prejudice and racism are more openly expressed and it has proved harder to settle in such environments.

Political trends do not help. In the US, President-elect Donald Trump has promised to crack down on what he terms illegal migration and even deploy the military to carry out mass deportations of undocumented migrants. His relevant appointments all appear onboard with this agenda. This time around, the Republicans also control Congress, making it easier for Trump to deliver on his promises.

European attitudes are similar. Far-right parties continue to prosper in elections across the continent. Even if they do not win, they have succeeded in changing the nature of the debate, forcing the traditional right-of-center parties to adopt much of their anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies. In the UK, the Reform Party plays this role, as the Conservatives try to push back against their far-right rival by mimicking their language. This was a party prepared to dispatch asylum seekers all the way to Rwanda at huge cost to show how anti-immigrant they were. Even the Labour Party, which came to power at the Conservatives’ expense in July, has few solutions. The ugly riots of the summer show how incendiary the whole issue is.

Elections across Europe showed how immigration is now perhaps the top issue, as well as arguably the most divisive. Croatia, the Czech Republic, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Slovakia all have far-right elements in their governments. The far-right Alternative for Germany was victorious in a state election this year. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally thrives. The extremes have become dangerously normalized.

Even in Ireland, a country rarely associated with far-right trends, riots broke out in Dublin in July. Slogans such as “Irish lives matter” showed the febrile nature of the debate.

Much of the global displacement comes down to a failure to resolve or even deescalate conflicts.

Chris Doyle

The reality is that the international community has utterly failed to find solutions to this issue. Consequently, one can only forecast that these numbers will continue to rise and that migrants will take ever great risks to reach their desired destinations. Solutions seem scarce and, as long as that is the case, the lure of extremist, racist, far-right political trends will continue to grow.

The tragedy is that, with greater effort and investment, the richer world could help in dampening the drivers of migration through effective policies that assist the affected countries and by helping to resolve long-running wars. Greater consideration should be given to safe routes, whereby migration can take place away from the criminal gangs and be managed more effectively and safely.

Finally, a change in attitude is also required. Immigrants are often victims of overt hostility. They are always portrayed negatively. Yet so often the real story is one of extraordinary success, in which immigrants have helped transform and energize economies and societies.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech