What Arabs should expect from the new White House

Arab countries face the task of reevaluating their expectations and strategies for dealing with a new Donald Trump administration in the White House.

During his previous term, Trump reshaped many aspects of US foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, adopting an unconventional approach focused on transactional alliances and strict stances towards Iran, while moving away from traditional diplomacy. With his return, Arab leaders are considering whether will revisit his previous policies, or adjust to the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Several issues are expected to be high on his agenda, including the Gaza conflict, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and the Iranian nuclear program. Trump’s first term marked a dramatic shift from the approaches of his predecessors, emphasizing an “America First” policy that prioritised US interests. This led to significant changes in the way the US interacted with allies and adversaries in the Middle East, creating both opportunities and challenges for Arab countries.

Perhaps Trump’s most influential legacy in the Middle East was the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. These agreements were designed to foster economic cooperation and promote peace through new alliances with Israel. While they were hailed as a historic step toward stability, some viewed the accords as focusing more on economic gains than addressing core regional issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Critics argued that sidelining the Palestinian cause could lead to long-term instability in the region.

Trump’s approach to Iran was central to his Middle East policy. He withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the Iran nuclear deal established under Barack Obama, and imposed sweeping sanctions on Iran in an attempt to limit its regional influence. Although some Gulf countries supported this strategy, it heightened tensions and increased the risk of conflict. The assassination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani and the subsequent rise in hostilities underscored the fragile state of affairs.

Trump also frequently questioned the necessity of maintaining a large American military presence in the Middle East, expressing a desire to reduce US involvement in conflicts that he viewed as not directly tied to American interests. In 2019, he ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. This raised concerns among US allies and prompted many Arab leaders to question the reliability of American military support, and to explore alternative security arrangements.

Trump’s policies strongly favored Israel, such as moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. His “Peace to Prosperity” plan was widely criticized by Palestinians, who viewed it as biased and dismissive of their aspirations. By prioritizing Israel’s strategic interests, Trump’s administration diminished America’s role as a neutral mediator in the conflict, further polarizing an already divided region.

With Trump back in office, there are key areas where Arab countries might see continuity in his policies, while other areas may require adjustments to align with the evolving geopolitical environment.

Trump has expressed interest in expanding the Abraham Accords to other Arab states. Normalizing relations with Israel could present significant economic opportunities for these countries, particularly in technology, tourism, and defense. However, the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue might provoke a public backlash in many Arab countries where support for Palestinian rights remains strong. Balancing these opportunities with public sentiment will be a delicate task for Arab leaders.

Trump is likely to engage in strategic bargaining, offering broader normalization with key Arab states in exchange for specific concessions by Netanyahu.

Abdellatif El-Menawy

Trump may also pursue further reductions in the US military footprint in the Middle East, relying on targeted operations rather than large-scale deployments. This would require regional countries to strengthen their defensive capabilities and perhaps form new alliances to manage their security independently. A reduced US presence could also encourage greater intervention from other global powers, such as Russia and China, whose growing influence in the region presents its own set of challenges.

Trump is well-known for using economic pressure as a foreign policy tool, and this could extend to Arab oil-producing countries. He may press Gulf states to adjust their oil production to meet global market demands, impacting the region’s economies. While Trump supports US energy independence, the interconnectedness of global markets ensures that Arab oil producers will remain integral to his economic strategy.

Trump’s re-election is expected to have major implications for the Middle East. During his campaign, he hinted at “peace through strength” and promised Arab and Muslim leaders that he would end conflicts if re-elected. Many Arabs feel that Biden, as a Democrat, was less effective in pressuring Israel’s prime minister to halt military action in Gaza, while Trump may wield more influence and respond to requests for restraint. Across the Arab world, Trump is perceived as a pragmatic businessman who prioritizes economic stability and views Middle Eastern stability as essential for fostering economic growth. Gulf states, in particular, believe that development and improved relations cannot flourish amid constant conflict. As a result, cooling tensions in Gaza and Lebanon is seen as a key objective for Trump’s administration.

Arab leaders also expect Trump’s strong relationship with GCC countries to be leveraged in influencing Benjamin Netanyahu. Rather than public reprimands, Trump is likely to engage in strategic bargaining, offering broader normalization with key Arab states in exchange for specific concessions by Netanyahu. Such an approach would align with Trump’s transactional style of diplomacy.

The Middle East peace plan introduced during Trump’s first term and championed by his son-in-law Jared Kushner remains a contentious issue. While its details were never fully disclosed, there were indications that it moved away from the two-state solution long considered the foundation for peace. The plan proposed a Palestinian capital in “parts of East Jerusalem,” connected by modern transport infrastructure, including a high-speed train linking the West Bank and Gaza. However, the lack of consensus on this plan continues to hinder progress.

One thing is certain: Trump’s policies will primarily be driven by what he perceives as America’s interests.

Trump’s policies in the Middle East present both opportunities and challenges. Arab leaders will need to navigate these dynamics cautiously, safeguarding their interests while seizing potential advantages. Marginalizing the Palestinian issue without addressing core concerns may exacerbate tensions and fuel public dissent.

As Trump prepares for his second term, the Arab world can expect policies that largely mirror his previous approach, including a hard line on Iran, reduced US military involvement, and a focus on economic agreements. While these policies present significant opportunities, they also carry risks related to regional stability and security.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy