Turkiye through the eyes of Eastern European states

Over the past few years, there has been a growing trend in Turkiye’s relations with Eastern European states, particularly Poland, Hungary and Romania. Despite differences in their approaches, they share common interests with Turkiye. As Europe is not immune to security challenges, especially following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the escalating migration crisis, the evolving ties between Ankara and these Eastern European states deserve a closer look.

Turkiye focuses on three key areas to enhance its relations with Eastern European states: establishing military cooperation within NATO as part of the European security framework; balancing relations with countries that have differing views on Ankara’s EU accession process; and strengthening its political and economic influence in Eastern Europe in alignment with the interests of Poland, Romania and Hungary.

Among these states, Poland looks for closer security relations with Turkiye. Both are key NATO members, with Turkiye having NATO’s second-largest military after the US and Poland in third spot. According to newly released figures, the size of Poland’s military has more than doubled over the last decade. It stood at 99,000 personnel in 2014, when it was only the ninth-largest in NATO, but is now at 216,100, according to NATO’s estimates for this year.

Poland is among the states interested in the Turkish defense industry, which has attracted a lot of attention from different parts of the world, including Europe. In June, Turkish manufacturer Baykar delivered to Poland the final batch of Turkish drones, namely the Bayraktar TB-2, ordered at a cost of $270 million.

Polish policymakers underline that it is essential for their country to maintain strong security relations with Turkiye. 

Sinem Cengiz

Polish policymakers underline that it is essential for their country to maintain strong security relations with Turkiye, despite their differences, which mostly relate to Ankara’s approach to Russia. Poland serves as a key NATO ally on the eastern flank. Both Turkiye and Poland have shown a strong commitment to NATO’s collective security principles and are part of the alliance’s activities that involve collaboration against common threats.

Despite their strong will, the extent and effectiveness of their defense cooperation is yet to reach its potential. Both states, either bilaterally or multilaterally, strive to enhance their defense ties not only to bolster their own security but also to contribute to the broader stability of Europe and beyond. Regional instability caused by Russian aggression, terrorism and hybrid threats are common security challenges. Within the NATO framework and beyond, they can counter these threats through coordinated strategies to enhance the alliance’s eastern flank. Moreover, Poland fully supports Turkiye’s accession to the EU, which began in 2005 but stalled due to Ankara’s strained relations with some members of the union — not Poland, Romania or Hungary, however.

Warsaw has defined Turkiye and Romania as Poland’s “key allies” and said that the foreign ministers of these three states should harmonize on the need to invest in the security of NATO’s eastern flank. Turkiye and Romania, along with Bulgaria, in July started joint demining operations in the Black Sea to ensure the safety of grain shipments from Ukraine. Under the Turkish-led deal, the three countries aim to oversee efforts to clear mines that have been drifting in the Black Sea since the onset of Russia’s invasion. While other NATO members are not involved in the initiative, Turkiye, which brokered the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, plays a major role in the demining agreement.

The Black Sea is of strategic importance to NATO, of which all three of these states are members. Turkiye and Romania are also safeguarding the eastern flank of NATO airspace with their F-16 fighter jets. Last December, Turkish F-16 fighter jets arrived in Romania to participate in NATO’s enhanced air policing mission in the south for the first time.

Compared to Romania and Poland, Hungary shares more commonalities with Turkiye in its approach to NATO and Russia. While some NATO and EU members see Turkiye as the odd one out within the alliance, Hungary views it as a close partner and a role model as part of its broader foreign policy strategy.

Hungary and Turkiye were the only two NATO countries that dragged their heels on ratifying Sweden’s bid to join. 

Sinem Cengiz

Hungary and Turkiye were the only two NATO countries that dragged their heels on ratifying Sweden’s bid to join the transatlantic military alliance. Sweden became a full member of NATO in March, only after Ankara and Budapest finally approved. Yet, this does not mean their interests in bargaining with NATO were for the same cause, as their demands were different.

Also, while Turkiye and Hungary hedge on supporting Ukraine, their foreign policies often clash with NATO priorities. Both the Turkish and Hungarian leaders have broken ranks within NATO and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin as they try to maintain relations with Moscow. For instance, Hungary made it clear that it would not participate in security assistance and training efforts for Ukraine, while Romania became one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, capped with the signing of a 10-year security agreement in July. This demonstrates that there are diverse views within the Eastern European states that Turkiye aims to cooperate with.

Hungary is also pushing for economic neutrality within the EU, including a “shift from traditional Western alignment.” In this regard, it has engaged in energy collaboration with Turkiye. Hungary in April became the first non-neighboring country to import gas from Turkiye.

When looking at these Eastern European states’ relations with Turkiye, it is safe to argue that they aim to redefine their positions within NATO and strengthen their military capabilities through a strong collaboration with Turkiye. Although their approaches often conflict, NATO remains a core foreign policy priority for all these states and this shapes their view of Turkiye.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz