Wars hang in the balance as Harris-Trump showdown looms

The multiple fronts of Israel’s military campaign — stretching from Gaza and Lebanon to Yemen and Iran — are not the only conflicts awaiting the outcome of next Tuesday’s electoral showdown between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the respective Democratic and Republican candidates for the US presidency. While the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Sudan’s civil war remain significant in US foreign policy calculations — particularly after Vladimir Putin’s reported deployment of North Korean troops to Russia at Kim Jong Un’s behest, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky — it is the Middle Eastern theater that stands to be most profoundly shaped by the outcome of the Harris-Trump faceoff.

Israel’s preeminence in Western, particularly American, foreign policy calculations is no accident — it reflects Tel Aviv’s status as the West’s indispensable regional ally. While friction occasionally emerges between Israel’s leadership and Western governments — as evidenced by recent concerns over Benjamin Netanyahu’s brutal Gaza campaign affecting civilians beyond Hamas targets — such disagreements rarely endure. They ultimately bow to an ironclad Western principle: strategic imperatives demand backing Israel, even when its actions trigger international condemnation and protests. This unwavering support, a constant since Israel’s establishment, was starkly displayed in Western leaders’ immediate solidarity visits and swift pilgrimage to Israel in the wake of last year’s Oct. 7 attacks. In light of this entrenched dynamic, what real impact could Tuesday’s White House race have?

We cannot ignore how individual leadership styles, personal beliefs and presidential temperament can significantly influence policy execution

Bakir Oweida

The simplistic view suggests nothing will change, pointing to the bedrock strategic principles that govern American policy toward Israel and beyond, regardless of who occupies the Oval Office. Yet, while these fundamentals indeed constrain any president’s options, we cannot ignore how individual leadership styles, personal beliefs and presidential temperament can significantly influence policy execution.

Whether Harris or Trump prevails, their victory will likely impact Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and the broader region — though within the boundaries of America’s strategic imperatives, which remain sacrosanct. How exactly this influence might manifest itself will remain uncertain during the “lame duck” transition period before January’s transfer of power. Meanwhile, as Washington’s political drama unfolds, the wars grind on and civilian suffering continues unabated.

• Bakir Oweida is a Palestinian journalist who pursued a professional career in journalism in Libya in 1968, where he worked at Al-Haqiqa newspaper in Benghazi, then Al-Balagh and Al-Jihad in Tripoli. He has written for several Arab publications in Britain since 1978. He worked at Al-Arab newspaper, Al-Thadamun magazine and the international Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. He has also worked as a consultant at the online newspaper Elaph.

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.