Netanyahu has run out of excuses to extend his wars

The much-anticipated Israeli strike against Iran has ended, and so it appears the current showdown between the two countries — for now. Israel has claimed to have hit selected military sites related to Iran’s ballistic missile assembly and solid fuel manufacturing in a night raid on Saturday involving tens of fighter jets that flew over Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Iran said the damage from the strikes was minimal, but added it will respond when the time is right.

US President Joe Biden hoped that the Israeli retaliatory strike for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic attack on Israel meant the end of the face-off, but warned Tehran against responding. US media argued that weeks of White House pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid targeting Iranian oil and nuclear facilities had worked, thus avoiding a regional conflagration.

And so both sides will now stand down as they await the outcome of next week’s US presidential elections. However, that does not mean the shadow war between the two regional parties will subside. Iran has not indicated it is putting pressure on its Lebanese ally Hezbollah to accept a conditional truce. However, behind-the-scenes talks may have dealt with the prospects of Israel’s land incursion into southern Lebanon and its heavy aerial strikes in the south, as well as in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

A seemingly elated Netanyahu delivered a defiant speech on Monday at the opening of the Knesset’s winter session. He did not indicate that the war in Gaza was close to an end, while promising to end Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel. He also vowed to undermine Iran’s regional network through its proxies, as well as prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear bomb.

He called Israel’s multi-frontal conflicts since October 2023 a “war of revival,” likening it to the country’s “war of independence” in 1948. There was no mention of the Palestinians, while he promised to push for “peace in return for peace” deals with Arab countries under the Abraham Accords.

Netanyahu is yet to admit that despite using brutal force in both Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is far from achieving a decisive victory

Osama Al-Sharif

Netanyahu did not mention a day-after scenario to end the wars. He ignored his critics in Israel, including families of the Israeli captives, opposition leaders, the coalition, and even Israeli President Isaac Herzog, who demanded an open inquiry into the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

But despite the hubris and the arrogance, Netanyahu’s speech failed to masquerade itself as a victory. His objectives for the war remain largely unfulfilled, even though an increasing number of tired and emotionally drained Israelis want the conflicts to end.

Netanyahu is yet to admit that despite using brutal force in both Gaza and Lebanon, Israel is far from achieving a decisive victory. Hamas is weakened and may never rebuild itself as a potent militia again, but Israel is facing an insurgency in Gaza that could go on for years.

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Rafah has been seen as an opportunity for Netanyahu, the US, and the West to end the war, which has become a major political liability for all parties involved.

Hezbollah, which suffered massive blows following the assassination of its top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, has managed to regroup, and is now firing tens of missiles daily across northern Israel and as far as Tel Aviv. More importantly, it is exacting a heavy toll on the Israeli army in southern Lebanon. Hundreds of Israeli soldiers have been killed or injured in the first two weeks of the land incursion.

What Netanyahu has stubbornly refused to admit is that Israelis are not as united today as they were 12 months ago. More than 300,000 soldiers have been deployed in Israel’s longest war since its creation. The economy is suffering, while hundreds of thousands of Israelis remain internally displaced with no sign that they will soon go home.

Israel’s international reputation has been damaged beyond repair. It is committing war crimes and crimes against humanity daily. While seemingly defiant, it will have to face severe charges of genocide and breaches of the Geneva Conventions, as well as international laws and UN Security Council resolutions, in the near future.

Netanyahu is pursuing his wars for ideological and personal reasons. He has done more damage to Israel than any of its foes ever envisaged doing. But more importantly, he has failed to realize that Israel can never score a final victory over its perceived enemies as long as it continues to ignore the core of the decades-old conflict: the Palestinians.

Netanyahu’s disregard for international law has undermined Israel’s allies in Washington and other Western capitals. The atrocities Israel’s soldiers are committing in Gaza and south Lebanon have upended the US-led world order. Against Israel’s wishes, the Palestinian cause has gained unprecedented support and sympathy among young Westerners, pummeling Israel’s skewed narrative about the core of the conflict, which it has been building for decades.

Ironically, such an awakening among young voters in the US has pushed the Gaza conflict to the forefront of election issues, especially for Democrats and the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. She could lose her bid over her weak and patronizing stand on Gaza, especially in the critical swing state of Michigan.

This harsh reality, among other things, is probably what prompted Biden on Monday to announce that the time had come for forging a ceasefire in Gaza. He said that his team would be working to fulfill this aim. Previous attempts to make this happen have been foiled by Netanyahu. But now Biden believes he has many reasons to force Israel into accepting a ceasefire.

Under domestic pressure, Netanyahu may now accept a brief truce, suggested by Egypt, to carry out the exchange of Israeli captives with Palestinian prisoners. The US hopes such a two-day pause in the war may evolve into a lasting one. Hamas wants to see a process where Israel would eventually withdraw entirely from Gaza. That is something that Netanyahu will never accept.

The sliver of hope emerging now may be extinguished sooner than expected. But one thing is certain: Israel is far from pacifying all of Gaza, and it is far from containing Hezbollah. Netanyahu is losing the argument for an endless war.

Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, Israel will have a tough time justifying a war that has no day-after scenario. Netanyahu is wrong to assume that a second Trump presidency will allow him to carry on with a conflict that has lost its meaning for most Israelis and has become unpopular all over the world. His victory lap is unlikely to take place, ever.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010