Will Donald Trump return as president of the US?

There is much debate and discussion regarding the chances of former US President Donald Trump winning the presidency of the United States again in the upcoming November election.

In this case, Trump would become the 47th president of America. However, this depends on the opportunities that may allow Trump to be re-elected as president and how he can overcome the many obstacles that stand in the way of his presidential victory. It also hinges on how Trump himself conducts his political campaign and how receptive the American people and voters are to Trump’s political and electoral promises.

We can consider a hypothesis often used in political analysis and known as “winning by error,” where the error here refers to the mistakes of others. For instance, a significant number of voters who were classified as uncommitted in the Democratic primary in Michigan announced they would not vote for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, due to the failure of her and President Biden to stop Israeli aggression against the Palestinian people in Gaza. The number of these voters is estimated to be around 100,000.

Political experts suggest that the number of voters who participated in the primary elections tends to at least double or even triple during the presidential election held on the first Tuesday of November. This means Harris could lose more than 200,000 votes in one state — Michigan. Michigan is a swing state, and if Harris fails to win Michigan, she will lose the presidential election, which would mean Trump winning Michigan and becoming the next president of the US.

What also bolsters Trump’s chances of returning to the White House is his growing popularity, along with some sympathy toward him. Some voters are willing to give him a second chance to accomplish what he could not due to his loss in the 2020 election. Additionally, the opposition from his rivals and opponents within the Republican Party is smaller in number and less intense than he faced four years ago.

Other factors may also aid Trump, including the old political theory about the composition of the electoral society in America, which suggests that the Republican Party has an advantage due to its support in all southern states, as well as the Great Plains states. This gives the Republican candidate an edge in the number of states he can win, allowing him to reach the magic number of 270 — more than half of the 538 electoral votes needed to win.

A deeper analysis of swing states also shows some advantages for Trump, particularly in Pennsylvania. In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania against his rival Hillary Clinton by a margin of 44,284 votes. However, in that year, the number of registered Democratic voters in Pennsylvania exceeded Republican voters by about 1 million. This means that Trump managed to win Pennsylvania eight years ago by securing votes from Republicans, a large number of independents, and even some Democrats.

Michigan is a swing state, and if Kamala Harris fails to win Michigan, she will lose the presidential election.

Now, in 2024, the difference between registered Democratic and Republican voters in Pennsylvania has shrunk to just 333,000. This indicates that the Democratic Party has lost over 600,000 members in the past eight years, which could strengthen Trump’s chances of winning. If Trump wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, he is almost certain to become president of the US again.

A detailed analysis of the Electoral College also shows Trump’s lead in three key states: North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Polls indicate that Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in North Carolina and Georgia in the south and in Arizona in the west.

Furthermore, Trump’s popularity is growing in strongly Democratic states, known as blue states. For example, Trump is polling close to 40 percent of the vote in New York, based on current polls conducted ahead of the election. This is an improvement, as Trump lost New York to Joe Biden in 2020 with 37.74 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 60.87 percent.

However, despite these advantages, several negative factors could cause Trump to lose the 2024 presidential race. Among these are the criminal charges against him, which could result in a prison sentence. This could be perceived as inappropriate for someone attempting to become the next president of the US.

Additionally, there are fierce media campaigns against him, accusing him of dictatorship and neglecting the interests of citizens, particularly the poor and those on low incomes.

Some also criticize him for making unrealistic statements, such as his claim that illegal immigrants in America eat pets. Another issue is the ongoing rise in Harris’ polling numbers against him. Therefore, Trump faces many obstacles in his bid to win the presidency once more.

Nevertheless, Trump’s approach to international relations could help him present himself as an experienced politician in foreign affairs. He wants to reconcile with Russia and end the Russia-Ukraine war. He seeks economic rather than military competition with China.

More importantly, he greatly values the significant role Saudi Arabia plays in achieving regional and global security and stability. If we look back at Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017, we read the following: “The first day of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia saw the signing of numerous joint agreements, totaling 34 contracts worth over $380 billion.

“Trump received a grand reception in Riyadh, which included artillery salutes and aerial flyovers, and he was awarded the King Abdulaziz Medal. A bilateral summit was held between King Salman bin Abdulaziz and Trump to discuss shared concerns.”

It is expected that political consultation involving a Trump administration and Saudi Arabia would intensify if Trump wins the presidential race, in order to work on resolving the Gaza crisis and many other crises in the Middle East, the Gulf, and the world at large.

• Faisal Al-Shammeri is a political analyst. X: @Mr_Alshammeri