Israel awaits Iran’s retaliation following Hezbollah strikes

Israel and Hezbollah traded punches on Sunday in what was described as the most violent exchange between the two sides since Oct. 7. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said the early-morning firing of more than 300 Katyusha rockets at northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights was followed by the launching of several drones that hit carefully chosen and sensitive military targets close to Tel Aviv. In a speech on Sunday evening, he declared that the attack was the party’s response to last month’s assassination by Israel of top Hezbollah military leader Fouad Shukr in Beirut’s southern district.

He indicated that the operation concluded the party’s retaliation for the assassination but that it reserved the right to carry out further attacks in the future. Meanwhile, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah will continue to engage Israel in the north within the rules of engagement in support of Palestinians in Gaza, adding that only an end to the war there would stop the hostilities with Israel.

Nasrallah admitted that Israel had carried out what it called a preemptive strike against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, but he debunked Israeli claims that it had destroyed thousands of missiles or undermined the party’s plans to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel.

He revealed that Hezbollah had chosen the military-run intelligence base of Glilot, a few kilometers north of Tel Aviv, as its primary target, adding that the operation was successful. But Israel has denied that the base was hit and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the army had intercepted most of the drones and missiles. Israel had earlier said that its response to the Hezbollah threat was also concluded, while Netanyahu said that Sunday’s showdown “was not the end of the story.”

Iran had vowed a harsh and painful response after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran

Osama Al-Sharif

Hamas and Iran praised Hezbollah’s attack, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman tweeting: “The Israeli terrorist army has lost its effective offensive and deterrent power and now must defend itself against strategic strikes.”

Hezbollah’s retaliation for Shukr’s assassination took 25 days to happen, but Nasrallah argued that the delay was due to coordination with Iran over the timing and shape of the attack. Iran had vowed a harsh and painful response after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the top Hamas political leader, in Tehran on July 31. Nasrallah added that the delay was also linked to the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, which took place in Doha and Cairo over three days in mid-August.

Israel has been bracing for a strike or series of strikes from Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthis. The US assembled a sizable naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean to warn all three. Nasrallah alluded to the US military presence in the region as having influenced the decision to launch its large-scale attack on Israel.

After Sunday’s exchange, both sides clearly agreed to avoid a full-scale war. For Nasrallah, the calculated response brought an end to weeks of speculation and fear, not only in Israel but also in Lebanon. By hinting that the attack was successful, Nasrallah managed to take his party out of the current crisis between Israel and the US, on the one hand, and Iran on the other.

While there was relief in Israel that the specter of thousands of Hezbollah missiles raining down on Israeli towns was over, there was frustration that the military and the political leadership had failed to agree on a plan to neutralize Hezbollah’s threat once and for all. There was also an admission that the only way to return tens of thousands of Israelis to their homes in northern Israel, other than open war with Lebanon, was to reach a ceasefire deal in Gaza.

To underscore such a point is the fact that Hezbollah resumed firing rockets and launching drones at the north almost immediately on Sunday in response to the Israeli shelling of southern Lebanon and the targeting of resistance officials and fighters in Lebanese cities and towns.

But for most Israeli analysts, it was Hezbollah that won Sunday’s battle because it still possesses the capabilities to strike military targets in northern Israel and the Golan Heights, while keeping thousands of displaced Israelis from returning to their homes.

The US chose not to get involved in this latest confrontation. Instead, it announced that it is pushing all parties meeting in Cairo to reach a ceasefire agreement.

This leaves Tehran in an awkward position. With Hezbollah now watching from the sidelines, it is yet to fulfill its threat to punish Israel for Haniyeh’s killing.

With Hezbollah now watching from the sidelines, Tehran is yet to fulfill its threat to punish Israel

Osama Al-Sharif

Late on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated his country’s planned retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh, saying it would be “measured.” In a post on X, Araghchi wrote: “Iran reaction to Israeli terrorist attack in Tehran is definitive and will be measured & well calculated.” “We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it — unlike Israel,” he added.

The same sentiment was echoed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who had declared Iran’s right to respond to Israel’s violation of its sovereignty. Haniyeh was killed hours after Pezeshkian’s inauguration, which put the moderate leader in a tough spot. He had campaigned on the grounds of normalizing ties with the US, but the Israeli attack gave Iranian hard-liners an excuse to push their agenda back to the forefront.

The US does not want an all-out war in the region that would spiral into geopolitical chaos like that in Ukraine. Also, with fewer than 70 days to go until the highly controversial and crucial US presidential election, a regional war would quickly become a liability for the Democratic Party’s candidate, Kamala Harris, who is also Joe Biden’s vice president.

Several Arab and European officials have delivered messages from the White House to Iran to avoid a new crisis. But Tehran cannot ignore Israel’s direct violation of its sovereignty and the humiliation of having a state guest killed on its territory.

A repeat of April’s direct and massive missile and drone strikes on Israel may not take place this time. Instead, Iran will likely retaliate differently and indirectly to avoid a united US-Israeli response.

But the US knows that stopping the war in Gaza will give Tehran and its new president an honorable exit from a mess created by a reckless Netanyahu.

This is why President Biden should exert pressure on Netanyahu to embrace a deal on Gaza. By doing so, he can save tens of thousands of Palestinian lives, the vast majority of whom are innocent and hapless civilians, while defusing a regional war and ending Hezbollah’s threat to northern Israel, at least for now. Israeli leaders know this, but Netanyahu remains the only obstacle to any truce — and the entire world knows this by now.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010