Fears escalate over Iran’s potential emergence as a nuclear state
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As Iran continues to make rapid strides in advancing its nuclear program, the international community’s apprehension is reaching new heights. The prospect of Iran becoming a nuclear-armed state is increasingly viewed as a near-term reality, prompting widespread concern among global powers.
Rep. Mike Turner, chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee, expressed his alarm on Sunday, stating that Iran could potentially declare itself a nuclear-armed state “by the end of the year.”
This development raises critical questions about Iran’s ability to achieve nuclear status within such a short timeframe. Since the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal, Iran has been steadily advancing its nuclear ambitions.
The 2015 agreement, negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), imposed strict limitations on Iran's nuclear activities. Specifically, Tehran was restricted to enriching uranium to a purity of no more than 3.67 percent, maintaining a stockpile of approximately 300 kg, as well as operating only rudimentary IR-1 centrifuges.
However, in the years following the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran has progressively breached these limitations. It has exceeded the 3.67 percent uranium enrichment threshold at multiple sites, amassed a stockpile of low-enriched uranium far beyond the 300 kg cap, expanded its number of centrifuges and invested heavily in centrifuge research and development, violating the terms of the original agreement.
Reports have indicated that Iran’s uranium enrichment levels have alarmingly reached at least 84 percent, which is perilously close to the 90 percent threshold required for weapons-grade material. This development suggests that Iran is now within striking distance of obtaining the crucial components necessary to assemble nuclear weapons.
The question now arises: does the Iranian government genuinely intend to become a nuclear-armed state? For years, Iranian leaders have consistently asserted that their nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. They have cited a religious decree (fatwa) issued by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which purportedly forbids the acquisition and use of nuclear weapons.
Yet, recent rhetoric from Iranian officials indicates a potential shift in policy. There is now open discussion within Iran about the possibility of building nuclear weapons. For example, Kamal Kharrazi, a senior adviser on foreign policy to Khamenei, recently suggested that the Islamic Republic might reconsider its nuclear strategy. This change in tone is significant, as it reflects a more aggressive posture that could exacerbate regional tensions. In addition, Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani has publicly hinted that Iran might already possess a nuclear weapon — a claim that, if true, would dramatically alter the strategic landscape in the Middle East.
It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time Iranian leaders have hinted that the nation’s nuclear ambitions may extend beyond peaceful purposes. For instance, former deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament Ali Motahari admitted in 2022: “From the very beginning, when we entered the nuclear activity, our goal was to build a bomb and strengthen the deterrent forces but we could not maintain the secrecy of this issue.” Furthermore, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, surprisingly acknowledged in 2021 that his work was part of a broader “system” designed to develop nuclear weapons. He stated: “When the country’s all-encompassing growth began, involving satellites, missiles and nuclear weapons, and surmounted new boundaries of knowledge, the issue became more serious for them.”
The West has also taken notice of these developments, with a noticeable shift in tone. France, Germany and the UK in 2022 issued a joint statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors, expressing grave concerns about the nature of Iran’s nuclear program. And the US intelligence community, which previously maintained that there were no indications Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons, has now revised its assessment in light of recent advancements.
Taken together, these developments — particularly Iran’s rapid progress in its nuclear program and the increasingly open discussion about the potential for nuclear weapons — are fueling growing fears about the direction Iran is heading.
Iran is reportedly within striking distance of obtaining the crucial components necessary to assemble nuclear weapons.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
At this critical juncture, the onus is on the Iranian government to address these fears if it wishes to reassure the international community about the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. If Tehran is indeed committed to nonproliferation, it must take concrete steps to reduce its uranium enrichment levels to those allowed under the 2015 nuclear deal, as there is no peaceful justification for its current enrichment levels. In addition, Iran could allow full access to IAEA inspectors to monitor its nuclear activities and adhere strictly to the rules of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which it is a party.
In conclusion, the time has come for the Iranian government to allay the growing fears and insecurities within the international community regarding its nuclear intentions. By curbing its nuclear activities and fully cooperating with the IAEA, Iran could play a pivotal role in rebuilding trust concerning its nuclear program.
- Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh
