Israel remains a barrier to any regional security deal
https://arab.news/vucc6
Israel’s Knesset last week voted to reject the establishment of a Palestinian state. The Israelis never miss a chance to miss a chance for peace or to enhance their own security. They do not understand that the more they hold on to their rejectionist attitude, the more they compromise their own security.
Following the Gulf War, the Bush administration was ambitious and wanted to bring everyone to the table for a process known as arms control and regional security, or ACRS. However, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir blew it up. And today Benjamin Netanyahu is torpedoing any initiative aimed at achieving a sustainable regional peace.
The Gulf War was a wake-up call to the potential use of weapons of mass destruction. During the war, Israel distributed gas masks. This is why the Americans thought arms control should be a high priority. The Bush administration called for a project that came from the Madrid Conference in 1991. The US promised Arab countries that it would take serious steps toward peace in the region. They were three bilateral tracks: Israel-Lebanon, Israel-Syria and Israel-Palestine.
The Shamir government did not want to participate. The Bush administration pushed Shamir to come to the table. Israel had reservations because it did not want to tackle the issue of refugees. The arms control and regional security scheme was part of a broader multilateral process aimed at streamlining the relationship between the different countries and creating a regional security architecture.
Its prospects faltered in 1995. It failed because the Israelis wanted security but did not want to offer any concessions. They wanted to avert war. They did not want any controls on their own armaments and did not want to tackle the issue of the refugees. Basically, the Israelis wanted to benefit from cooperation with Arab countries but did not want to address their main concern: Palestine. Israel was happy with the operational track to avert any prospect of war but did not want to discuss the fundamental issues that mattered to its Arab interlocutors. Arab states were cynical about the process because they wanted progress on the Palestinian dossier, which Israel was avoiding. In the end, the scheme collapsed. Also, the Egyptians clashed with the Israelis over the nuclear issue.
The same is the case today. There is a threat of weapons of mass destruction. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week announced that Iran’s nuclear weapon breakout time is now down to one to two weeks. Nevertheless, Iran today is different from Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. In 1991, the only country with nuclear capabilities was Israel, Iraq’s Osirak reactor having been destroyed in a 1981 Israeli raid. Today, with the advances of technology, everyone seems to have the capability to inflict harm on the other. Hence, each country’s security is dependent on others’ intentions and not their capabilities. As the situation seems more complex, the stakes are higher and the risks are graver. The issue is currently more complicated because technology is more widely available than it was in the 1990s.
Also, today there is the problem of nonstate actors. The Houthis are attacking ships bound for Israel and this week even targeted Tel Aviv. Israel has retaliated and bombed Yemen. There is less room to verify proliferation controls with the existence of nonstate actors and the informal channels that link them to their patrons. This is why a regional order is more important than ever. This is why everyone in the region should feel safe, otherwise no one is safe.
However, Israel has not changed its attitude. It wants to cooperate with Arab countries on security, to develop trade relations and be recognized without making any concessions. Nevertheless, Israel is in a very precarious situation. A regional order is its only guarantee. Even if Iran, by some miracle, is neutralized, another threat will surely emerge from another country. The Israelis have to understand that, as long as they subjugate Palestinians and deny them their freedom, dignity and statehood, they will never be safe.
A solution to the Palestinian issue can also create a face-saving exit for Iran in order for it to relinquish its call to annihilate Israel. A fair deal with the Palestinians, through giving them a state with East Jerusalem as its capital, will deprive the Iranian regime of its belligerent narrative. It would also give the ideological regime a legitimate excuse to make a U-turn.
Saudi Arabia has offered normalization in return for an irreversible path toward a Palestinian state. The Kingdom has also been engaging with Iran to ease regional tensions. The Biden administration has offered Israel a ceasefire plan to end the carnage in Gaza and start a political process. This is a golden opportunity for Israel. It should capitalize on these initiatives to start the process of streamlining its relations with all its neighbors, even Iran. This will be the only way to guarantee its security.
The Israelis have to understand that, as long as they subjugate Palestinians and deny them their freedom, dignity and statehood, they will never be safe.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
However, Netanyahu is sticking to his maximalist goals. The region is on the brink of explosion. It is at a crossroads. It can either go toward all-out war or toward a comprehensive arrangement. Israel is dragging the region toward war through its rejectionist attitude and by prioritizing war over diplomacy. Just as it refused to address the issue of Palestine in the 1990s, it is refusing again today. However, what Israel does not understand is that the stakes are higher today then they were back then. Gaza should create a moment of truth, the same way the Gulf War created a moment of truth. Hence, solving the Palestinian issue should be the core issue on which reconciliation talks are conducted and it should be at the heart of any arms control and regional security scheme.
- Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
