The new parameters of the Turkish-Egyptian thaw
https://arab.news/vespa
The normalization of relations between the Gulf states and Turkiye has significantly influenced the reconciliation efforts between Turkiye and Egypt. However, the main catalyst for their reconciliation is the ongoing Gaza war, which poses threats to both Turkish and Egyptian interests in the region.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi this week visited Ankara, the first presidential trip to Turkiye in more than a decade. The relationship between Turkiye and Egypt suffered greatly in 2013 after El-Sisi, then Egypt’s army chief, led the ousting of Mohammed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated elected president of the country. This incident led to a collapse in relations that not only affected Turkiye’s ties with Egypt, but also impacted its relations with the Gulf states that supported Cairo, hampered cooperation in the Syrian crisis, as two heavyweights of the region confronted, and left Turkiye increasingly isolated in regional affairs.
In international diplomacy, high-level visits often signal a thaw in relations when leaders have a strong business elite accompanying them — and El-Sisi’s visit offered a clear indication of this. It reciprocated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s first trip to Cairo since 2012, which he made in February, and marked a significant milestone in the process of normalization.
Erdogan, who personally welcomed El-Sisi at the airport and traveled with him to the presidential palace in the same car, emphasized the importance of the Egyptian leader’s visit by stating: “With a win-win mindset, we will advance our multidimensional ties.”
This visit effectively removed the final barriers in Turkiye’s regional normalization agenda. Until El-Sisi’s visit, there was a perception that Cairo was less committed to rapprochement than Ankara, but he has now clearly demonstrated a mutual commitment to improving ties.
Erdogan personally welcomed El-Sisi at the airport and traveled with him to the presidential palace in the same car
Sinem Cengiz
Both Turkiye and Egypt are significant players in the politically fragile Middle East, each with substantial populations and the potential to enhance regional stability through effective collaboration. This potential was reflected in the signing of 17 memorandums of understanding, with a primary focus on economic interests.
From the discussions and the deals signed, we can understand that Ankara is particularly interested in expanding cooperation with Egypt in the fields of natural gas and nuclear energy. And Cairo is focused on Turkiye’s growing defense industry and its support in mediating with other actors, such as Ethiopia, with which Egypt is at odds. Beyond these bilateral interests, the Gaza situation has broader regional implications, impacting both nations’ strategic considerations.
Turkiye is looking to diversify its gas sources and increase the volume of liquefied natural gas imported from Egypt. Additionally, it wants a maritime boundary demarcation agreement in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkiye’s goal in this region is to keep its conflict with Greece on a bilateral basis, avoiding the involvement of states like Egypt. This move aims to solidify Ankara’s position in the region, but Cairo is cautious about potentially abandoning its allies in the Eastern Mediterranean by conceding to Turkish maritime claims. To address Egypt’s concerns, Turkiye might first seek observer status in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum as a step toward broader regional collaboration.
Thus, El-Sisi’s visit is expected to formalize normalization via an institutional framework, with the creation of a strategic cooperation council to represent the highest level of coordination between the two countries. This council will meet annually, similar to Turkiye’s model with some of the Gulf states. The involvement of the relevant intelligence agencies and foreign ministries was crucial in facilitating this rapprochement. These institutions should further cooperate to keep the newly restored ties away from personalization and more toward institutionalization.
One significant potential development in the relationship was Egypt’s interest in Turkish drones and other military equipment. Any cooperation in the defense realm would suggest a long-term relationship and introduce a new dimension to their collaboration. By institutionalizing their relationship through political, economic and military cooperation, Turkiye and Egypt can maintain a sustainable relationship even in spite of any future disagreements. However, Ankara must handle its potential drone sales to Egypt carefully to avoid complicating its ties with Ethiopia.
One significant potential development was Egypt’s interest in Turkish drones and other military equipment
Sinem Cengiz
The current Gaza situation and the wider Palestinian issue are a common concern for both leaders. The prolonged Israeli military campaign in Gaza, now nearing its first anniversary, has exacerbated the Strip’s humanitarian crisis and heightened regional tensions. Meanwhile, Iran-backed proxy groups like the Houthis in Yemen have adversely affected the security of commercial vessels in the Red Sea and impacted traffic through Egypt’s Suez Canal. So, Egypt is turning to the regional states that it could cooperate with on intelligence and security exchanges to help it mitigate the security threats it faces.
However, there are still points on which Turkish and Egyptian interests diverge. For instance, even though Egyptian-Turkish dialogue presents an opportunity to address ongoing conflicts in Africa, particularly in Sudan, Turkiye’s interest in establishing a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast conflicts with Egypt’s national security concerns. Turkiye’s expansion of influence in Somalia also complicates Egypt’s vision of regional dynamics.
As Turkiye and Egypt work to overcome their political differences — mainly related to ideological differences — and repair their relations after a decade, Erdogan and El-Sisi have set aside personal animosities in favor of pragmatic economic and strategic interests. Therefore, the current situation between Egypt and Turkiye signifies a shift from their historically competitive relationship.
Previously, competition between Ankara and Cairo for regional dominance has led to a zero-sum game with no real benefits for either side. However, in the face of regional uncertainties, transforming this competitive dynamic into a win-win scenario is the most rational approach for both states. Given the pressures from both external and internal factors, it is crucial for Turkiye and Egypt to clearly define the parameters of their rapprochement.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
