Fresh approach needed if Daesh is to be defeated
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It has been 10 years since Daesh emerged on the global stage and announced itself as a caliphate. Despite suffering major territorial defeats at the hands of a global coalition, the group remains a persistent and evolving threat.
At its peak, between 2015 and 2017, Daesh ruled a swath of land larger than Great Britain, had tens of thousands of fighters and conducted audacious attacks in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and European cities, including Paris and Brussels.
Although its conventional capabilities have been significantly degraded since 2019, its capacity for asymmetric warfare has only grown and become more persistent, defying conventional strategies for countering threats.
Its evolution into a decentralized network of regional branches displays a tenacious knack for survival and adaptability in the face of catastrophic territorial losses and a more experienced counter-Daesh coalition.
Moreover, whether through high-profile terrorist attacks orchestrated by affiliates in Moscow or sporadic guerrilla operations in Iraq and Syria, Daesh’s ability to exploit instability remains a potent threat. Five years after losing its last significant stronghold in Baghouz, Syria, Daesh continues to assert its influence in ungoverned, unstable regions by leveraging a sprawling network of affiliates and local insurgencies that span continents.
Across the world, countries and entire subregions find themselves increasingly buffeted by emboldened splinter groups that operate with impunity while the global coalition races to catch up.
Daesh affiliates remain bound to the core leadership through a pledge of “baya’t” (allegiance), yet they operate with a degree of autonomy that allows local adaptability. Meanwhile, Daesh-K, the group’s most prolific and operationally capable arm, has demonstrated a terrifying reach, with attacks not only within Afghanistan but stretching into Russia, Iran and Turkiye.
This persistent ability to inspire and mobilize through sophisticated propaganda further entrenches its appeal, making the need to eradicate its ideological resonance just as pressing a concern as the tactical suppression of its militants.
The Middle East, particularly Iraq and Syria, remains Daesh’s main area of focus but recent shifts in its strategy, and the evolving dynamics in this part of the world, have led to an evolution of the group’s operations.
In Iraq, attacks are concentrated in Kirkuk, Diyala and Salahuddin, regions where sectarian grievances and inflamed agitations provide fertile ground for underground insurgency. Similarly, in Syria, the group’s presence in the central desert facilitates guerrilla-style attacks while minimizing the risk of direct confrontations with Syrian and Russian forces.
This strategic dispersion complicates efforts to eradicate a group that increasingly operates through a network of semiautonomous units that are both opportunistic and resilient.
Beyond the Middle East, Daesh’s global reach has been reinvigorated through alliances with and support for local affiliates in parts of Africa and Asia.
Daesh’s affiliate in Western Africa has broadened its operational scope, indiscriminately targeting military installations and civilian populations alike. This pattern extends to Mozambique, where splinter cells have destabilized the Cabo Delgado region, demonstrating an ability to adapt to local conflict dynamics and exploit regional vulnerabilities.
An increasingly confident Daesh is rapidly consolidating its new model in preparation for an organized expansion.
Hafed Al-Ghwell
Worryingly, the establishment of new provincial structures, such as its General Directorate of Provinces, reveals that an increasingly confident Daesh is rapidly consolidating its new model in preparation for an organized expansion and even deeper integration in the changing global security environment.
The directorate has managed to streamline operations across various continents, including in hot spots such as Somalia, Nigeria and Afghanistan. This bureaucratic evolution, in particular the creation of new administrative offices such as Maktab Al-Karrar and Maktab Al-Furqan, marks a significant shift from the territorial-based entity that was defeated five years ago to a more enduring one with a global reach that will be very challenging to eradicate.
Unfortunately, global attention to Daesh continues to wane in the face of other emergent conflicts and geopolitical rifts and this reduced scrutiny is inadvertently aiding the reorganization and expansion of the group.
As the international focus pivots toward management of ongoing conflicts or the prevention of new ones, Daesh looks more poised than ever to exploit these distractions, emboldened by fragmented responses as regional powers fixate on countering localized threats from a group sustained by sophisticated, globe-spanning networks.
Naturally, this “new” Daesh necessitates renewed and comprehensive international resolve to counter the group’s broadening influence, operations and heightened resilience. In response to this evolving threat, the global coalition is adapting its strategies to ensure an enduring defeat of Daesh. While military operations, including targeted airstrikes and special operations, remain fundamental to this, there is an increasing awareness that such kinetic efforts alone are inadequate.
The coalition therefore aims to counter the group’s ideological influence and disrupt its financial networks. Integrated local governance supports these efforts by focusing on the stabilization of regions and addressing the socioeconomic factors that contribute to Daesh’s recruitment and retention of members. A more holistic approach can ameliorate potential tactics by blending military might with ideological and financial countermeasures to mitigate Daesh’s operational capabilities.
In Iraq and Syria, coalition activities extend to the bolstering of local security and military forces through intensive training programs and robust intelligence-sharing initiatives. These collaborations are vital in efforts to prevent Daesh from reclaiming territories or establishing new strongholds.
In Africa, the coalition concentrates on efforts to enhance the capacity of regional counterterrorism forces and foster cross-border cooperation to tackle the transnational, pan-provincial nature of Daesh affiliates.
On the financial front, the group’s revenue streams now include diversified methods that extend beyond extortion and oil smuggling. International cooperation is essential in operations to disrupt these networks by tracking and blocking illicit financial flows and targeting businesses and individuals that facilitate the group’s operations. Such multifaceted strategies, executed in concert, are designed to comprehensively weaken Daesh’s structural and operational prowess.
The group might have lost its last territorial stronghold five years ago but its ability to adapt and integrate into a global structure remains a potent risk. Therefore, coalition efforts must extend beyond conventional military measures to also focus on dismantling Daesh’s new organizational frameworks.
Initiatives designed to bolster local governance, along with targeted development programs, can disrupt recruitment pipelines, while sustained international collaboration will be vital for monitoring and neutralizing the group’s transnational links. Without such a holistic approach, the ideological appeal of Daesh and its sharpened operational capabilities will continue to find fertile ground amid rising geopolitical instability.
Ensuring the enduring defeat of Daesh will take more than military might and security-focused approaches. As we mark a decade since the emergence of Daesh, a transition of global strategies from dismissal of the group as a persistent threat to a mobilization for its enduring defeat will be complex and fraught with challenges.
However, global coordination, sustained attention and multifaceted approaches will be indispensable in the efforts to dismantle Daesh’s global network and prevent the group from capitalizing on the world’s geopolitical distractions.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC.
X: @HafedAlGhwell
