Tensions on the rise in Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa, encompassing Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti and parts of Sudan, remains one of the most geopolitically turbulent regions in the world. Due to its strategic location near the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, it draws the attention of regional and international powers alike. However, escalating conflicts in the region are deeply rooted in interconnected issues, including water security, political instability and competing ambitions for regional dominance.

At the heart of this geopolitical competition lies the enduring tension between Egypt and Ethiopia, fueled primarily by disputes over the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Recent developments, including a Turkish-mediated agreement between Ethiopia and Somalia, have heightened Egypt’s concerns over shifting dynamics in the region.

The Nile, the world’s longest river, serves as Egypt’s lifeline, providing more than 97 percent of its freshwater needs. Shared by 11 countries, Egypt and Sudan have historically claimed the lion’s share of its waters based on long-standing agreements.

Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, the primary tributary of the Nile, has disrupted this balance.

At the heart of this geopolitical competition lies the enduring tension between Egypt and Ethiopia

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

For Ethiopia, the dam represents a cornerstone of its future economic development and energy independence, with a capacity to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. However, for Egypt, it poses an existential threat, potentially reducing water flow during its filling and operation phases. Despite years of negotiations, no binding agreement on the dam’s management has been reached, exacerbating distrust between the two nations.

Ethiopia has long sought to establish itself as a dominant power in the Horn of Africa, leveraging its large population, strategic location and economic potential. By strengthening ties with neighboring countries such as Somalia and Eritrea, Addis Ababa aims to consolidate its regional influence while countering external pressures, particularly from Egypt.

Egypt’s interests in the Horn of Africa extend beyond water security. Cairo has historically sought to maintain its influence in the region through robust ties with Sudan and Gulf nations. However, Ethiopia’s growing influence, coupled with its alliances with countries like Turkiye and Eritrea, presents a challenge to Egypt’s regional standing. Last month’s Ethiopia-Somalia agreement, in particular, raised alarms in Cairo, as it could potentially shift the regional balance of power.

This agreement is a significant development in the Horn of Africa. While the details remain unclear, it reportedly focuses on strengthening security cooperation, enhancing economic integration and addressing shared challenges, such as border security and counterterrorism.

Turkiye’s mediation underscores its growing interest in Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa. With a military base in Somalia and significant investments in infrastructure projects, Ankara has deepened its economic ties to the region. By facilitating the Ethiopia-Somalia agreement, it has positioned itself as a key player in Horn of Africa diplomacy, further complicating the regional landscape.

For Somalia, the agreement represents an opportunity to bolster its security and economic ties with Ethiopia. As Somalia continues to face internal challenges, including the ongoing insurgency by Al-Shabab, closer cooperation with Ethiopia could provide critical support. However, this rapprochement may strain Somalia’s relationships with other neighbors, such as Kenya and Djibouti, which might view the agreement with suspicion.

Egypt has expressed its concern over the deal, emphasizing the importance of maintaining security and stability in the Horn of Africa. Cairo views the agreement as a potential reconfiguration of regional alliances that could undermine its influence.

The escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa carry broader geopolitical ramifications, highlighting issues such as: water security as a strategic priority, the role of external powers, and economic development versus political instability

The Nile dispute highlights the growing importance of water security in global geopolitics. As climate change and population growth exacerbate resource scarcity, competition over shared water resources is likely to intensify in other regions as well.

The Horn of Africa has also become a hotspot for external powers, including Turkiye, China, the US and countries in the Gulf. Their interests range from securing access to vital maritime routes to advancing economic ambitions and countering rivals. This external involvement can either stabilize the region or further complicate its conflicts.

And while Ethiopia and Somalia aim to enhance regional cooperation and economic integration, their efforts are hindered by political and ethnic strife, as well as the threat of extremism. Addressing these underlying challenges is essential for achieving long-term stability and development in the Horn of Africa.

Given the complexities of the current situation, several scenarios could unfold: heightened tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the formation of a regional bloc, increased Turkish mediation, renewed negotiations on Ethiopia’s dam project and/or continued internal challenges.

Cairo views the Ethiopia-Somalia agreement as a potential reconfiguration that could undermine its influence

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

If Ethiopia continues operating the dam without addressing Egypt’s concerns, tensions are likely to escalate. Cairo may intensify its diplomatic efforts to gain international support or seek arbitration. In a worst-case scenario, military action could become an option, despite the significant risks it would pose to regional stability.

The Ethiopia-Somalia agreement could pave the way for a stronger regional alliance, potentially including Eritrea. Such an alliance would bolster Ethiopia’s influence while marginalizing Egypt.

Turkiye’s growing role in the Horn of Africa could lead to more active mediation in regional disputes. However, such involvement may provoke resistance from other powers, such as Egypt and the Gulf nations.

In a more optimistic scenario, negotiations on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam could resume under the auspices of the African Union or the UN. A comprehensive water-sharing agreement could help ease tensions and lay the groundwork for broader regional cooperation.

Domestic issues, such as ethnic conflicts in Ethiopia and insurgencies in Somalia, could undermine regional efforts. Prolonged instability would disrupt agreements and invite further external interference.

The Horn of Africa remains a highly volatile region where local, regional and international interests intersect. While the Ethiopia-Somalia agreement may offer some prospects for stability, it also introduces new complexities, particularly for Egypt.

Resolving these challenges requires a holistic approach that addresses both immediate security concerns and long-term developmental needs. Whether through negotiations, external mediation or enhanced regional cooperation, stability in the Horn of Africa hinges on the willingness of all parties to prioritize collective interests over individual ambitions.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy