Disagreements likely when NATO allies meet in Washington

The upcoming NATO Summit, which is scheduled to take place in Washington from July 9 to July 11, will be an important step to enhance and upgrade the US’ relations with its European allies over global and regional security issues and to bolster the doctrine of collective security. It will be the highest level of Western alliance solidarity. However, the summit could be a big failure, especially if little agreement is found among America and its allies over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

The Europeans may not be enthused because, earlier this year, the US Congress delayed the passage of a supplemental spending package to replace the shrinking Ukrainian arsenal of artillery shells, air defense missiles and other critical military supplies and resources. These shortages allowed Russia to consolidate its territorial gains in Ukraine and hit the country’s critical infrastructure, especially its power-generating stations. Subsequent Ukrainian counterattacks have failed to dislodge the Russian troops from their positions.

In addition, Germany has refused to hand long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine and this German rejection could continue during and after the Washington summit.

Another potential point of disagreement could be France’s plan to establish a European coalition of military instructors on Ukrainian land. US President Joe Biden has not yet endorsed such a proposal. However, it is possible that a few European countries could support President Emmanuel Macron’s idea if sending military instructors meant that no European troops would be deployed on Ukrainian soil.

Most likely, Ukraine’s admission to NATO will not be decided upon in Washington and may not even be discussed at all

Maria Maalouf

The summit will also discuss the Biden administration’s decision to permit Ukraine to target positions inside Russian territory with American weapons. Many European countries fear an increased Russian reprisal against Ukraine because of this new policy.

Most likely, Ukraine’s admission to NATO will not be decided upon in Washington and may not even be discussed at all. The Europeans and the US do not want to be directly involved in the defense of Ukraine and NATO’s collective security mandate demands an alliance-wide policy of military engagement and responsibility against any country that attacks a nation state that is a NATO member.

The US is still against France, Poland and the Baltic countries, which have been lobbying for a formal accession invitation to be given to Kyiv during the summit. Perhaps the deal signed by Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the G7 Summit in Italy early in June — implementing a 10-year bilateral security agreement to strengthen Ukraine’s military — will be the reason the US president and most of the other NATO leaders will reject Ukraine’s full membership.

It is also expected that the summit will support the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an alliance of more than 50 countries that channels military aid to Ukraine. Nevertheless, the number of its military assistance programs has been small and will not increase due to the Washington summit.

As far as Israel’s war on Gaza is concerned, NATO has consistently called for a “humanitarian pause” to allow the delivery of much-needed aid to the Palestinians. Several European countries feel the need to not look the other way over the suffering of the Palestinians. Despite this, the Biden administration may not favor such a ceasefire plan because it is supportive of Israel and it does not know for how long such a ceasefire will last.

Several European countries feel the need to not look the other way over the suffering of the Palestinians

Maria Maalouf

It is noteworthy to refer to the statements made by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who said: “The war in Gaza must not turn into a major regional conflict. Iran and Hezbollah must stay out of this fight.” While many members of the US Congress want Israel to start a war on its northern front against Hezbollah, Europe does not want Lebanon to become the arena for a proxy war between Israel and Iran.

Turkiye may be more vocal in its support for the Palestinians during the summit. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has even described Hamas as a national liberation group. He has initiated many policies to grant Hamas legitimacy and has been in touch with its leaders during the war on Gaza. He may call on NATO leaders to accept a political role for Hamas in post-conflict Gaza. There could even be the suggestion that NATO should have a security mission in the Strip. In a joint effort, Spain and Norway formally recognized a Palestinian state on May 28. They will defend that policy in Washington.

Furthermore, Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis has urged Europe to accept refugees from Gaza. He said: “We need to face this tragedy very clearly. Europe should be open to injured people from (Gaza) but also to children who are now facing famine or other sorts of dangers.”

The final challenge is whether the European voices calling on the Biden administration to impose a ceasefire in Gaza will prevail or be rejected. If they are accepted, this will signal a major strategic shift in how NATO deals with the security of the Middle East. If they are rejected, it will indicate that Europe will never be equal in its political and military relations with Washington, since many American administrations have declined many European appeals for a balanced US policy toward the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib