NATO expansion in the hands of Turkiye’s parliament
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The conflict in Ukraine has put NATO membership under the spotlight, with the organization’s 1,000-mile eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War being a primary reason for Russian mobilization. As is often the case, the future of the alliance is currently being held up by two states that do not border the northern Atlantic, namely Sweden and Turkiye.
Just a few months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden abandoned centuries of nonalignment to apply for NATO membership, with the conflict serving to show the extent of the threat to European stability. Despite its neighbor Finland’s parallel membership application already being ratified, Sweden’s accession has been delayed. The prospect of the accession of Sweden’s impressive military to the bloc has been delayed by Turkiye, which has used its growing role within the organization to meet its own foreign and security policy objectives.
Last week, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish parliament approved Sweden’s accession to NATO. However, the overall process of Turkish approval is not complete until parliament ratifies the decision. The Swedish accession has stalled due to two conditions set by Turkiye. It called for Stockholm to take action against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, and secondly it wants Canada to end its embargo on arms sales to Turkiye, alongside the US approving Ankara’s request to purchase F-16 fighter jets.
Sweden’s involvement in the Kurdish question is not surprising. Home to a substantial and highly politicized Kurdish community, Sweden hosts several prominent Kurdish exiles and the PKK draws significant international, political and financial support from the diaspora. Six Kurdish-Swedish members of parliament are the visible embodiment of a wider political bloc that is active in Swedish politics. It is led by Amineh Kakabaveh, an Iranian of Kurdish origin, who has been a fierce critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
So vocal has she been that Turkiye has repeatedly called for her extradition — a prospect that is unlikely given Swedish reticence about handing over its citizens. However, in a nod to a perceived warming of relations and to expedite its NATO talks, Sweden recently imprisoned a man who was found guilty of financing the PKK.
Turkish-US relations went through various phases under the Trump administration and they have not improved under President Joe Biden. The chief issue of concern remains Turkiye’s procurement of the advanced S-400 air defense system from Russia, which was not well received by the US and other NATO members. As a result, Washington suspended Turkiye’s involvement in the F-35 jet fighter project, citing concerns about the potential sharing of classified features and technology with Russia, which would pose a future challenge to American national security interests.
Turkiye has used its growing role within the organization to meet its own foreign and security policy objectives.
Zaid M. Belbagi
Turkiye’s defense cooperation with Russia has also delayed its intended purchase of 40 F-16 fighter jets and 80 associated modernization kits for its existing fleet. These negotiations were further strained when Turkiye rejected a US proposal that it move its Russian-made defense systems to Ukraine as part of NATO efforts to improve that country’s defenses. Given NATO’s initial opposition to Turkiye’s purchase of the S-400 system from Russia, it was to be expected that Turkiye claimed the system is integral to its national security and not coherent with NATO systems.
Due to Turkiye’s importance to Eastern European security, as an interlocutor with Russia and indeed given the size of its military in an alliance plagued by dwindling European resources, movement on the $20 billion F-16 order is expected, especially as and when Turkiye acquiesces to Sweden’s accession.
Although Turkiye joined NATO more than six decades ago, its role has grown in line with its increased international influence and military strength. The country’s geostrategic location remains of immense importance, as witnessed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine with its role in policing the Black Sea and securing the export of critical grain supplies from the conflict zone.
With Ankara having the second-largest armed forces within the organization, NATO can ill afford to ostracize Turkiye at a time when its entire eastern flank faces constant Russian aggression and interference. Foreign policy divergences over Iraq, Iran, Syria and the wider Eastern Mediterranean have strained NATO’s relationship with Turkiye, which is arguably more important than it has previously been, as the alliance deals with the most serious threat to its stability since the end of the Cold War. It is therefore critical that the organization seeks more common ground with Ankara.
The approval of the Turkish Foreign Affairs Committee is a promising development in the context of NATO expansion; however, it also illustrates Turkiye’s diplomatic influence over Sweden and the US. Though US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed the Biden administration’s readiness to approve Turkiye’s purchase of the F-16 jets and modernization kits in July, this deal has yet to go through. Within this context, the Turkish parliament will continue to delay its approval of Sweden’s NATO accession, simultaneously stalling Hungary’s own decision on the matter, which is linked to Ankara’s.
As is always the case with old states with long memories, the current Swedish question is not without precedent. Just as when Charles XII of Sweden sought refuge with Sultan Ahmed III following defeat by Russia in 1709, Turkiye is once again an arbiter in the relationship between East and West.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
X: @Moulay_Zaid
