A pivotal point for reshaping the Eurasian landscape

In the wake of US President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972, the resulting Washington-Beijing rapprochement set in motion a series of seismic changes that emphatically resonate in our modern era. This pivotal event marked a turning point in international relations and had profound implications for the global geopolitical landscape. The subsequent unfolding of events, particularly China’s remarkable economic growth during the 1980s under the stewardship of Deng Xiaoping, significantly accentuated these shifts and positioned China as a central and commanding player in the contemporary international arena.

The economic surge in China was underpinned by Deng’s trailblazing market-oriented reforms, which thrust the country into economic powerhouse status. The allure of China’s expansive market and cost-effective labor force attracted substantial investments from both American and European companies. This influx of foreign investment facilitated China’s ascent and it became a pivotal and eminent global manufacturing hub, leading to astounding and formidable economic expansion.

However, this economic realignment came with its own set of consequences. The trend of relocating production units to China as a means of cost-cutting and capitalizing on its labor force caused a profound transformation in the Western industrial landscape. The migration of production hubs from Western countries to China was not only a financial boon for entrepreneurs but it also contributed to a distinct and notable contraction of the middle class.

Traditionally a cornerstone of industrial capitalism, the middle class historically constituted a significant and substantial portion of Western societies, even up to 70 percent of the population prior to the 1980s. Yet, this middle-class backbone of industrial capitalism has dwindled due to the economic shift, giving rise to a paradoxical scenario where global wealth has soared while wages have stagnated. Furthermore, the Western economies experienced a sharp and substantial rise in unemployment as a result of these transformations.

This evolving economic landscape has led to intricate socioeconomic dynamics. As the gap between the middle class and the less privileged narrows, a parallel trend has emerged where the wealthiest 1 percent of the population has grown increasingly distant from the rest of society. This economic inequality has become a defining and conspicuous hallmark of the modern era, sparking discussions and debates about wealth distribution and social justice.

At the heart of these transformations lies China’s ascent as the preeminent and paramount beneficiary. China’s strategic utilization of Western expertise, combined with an export-driven growth model and the unprecedented success of strategies like the Belt and Road Initiative, have propelled it into a position of unequivocal and indisputable global preeminence.

China’s rapid rise and its model of development have attracted an increasing number of nations.

Dr. Fotios Moustakis and Dr. Georgios Mourtos

This economic and geopolitical rise has bolstered China’s confidence in envisioning the 21st century as an undeniable and resounding Asian, and more specifically, Chinese century. This shift has presented the world with a profound and intricate conundrum. The traditional appeal of liberal Western ideals has waned, particularly in the face of economic challenges and political turbulence. China’s rapid rise and its model of development have attracted an increasing number of nations, thereby casting a substantial shadow over the appeal of Western ideologies.

The Belt and Road Initiative’s grand design, which draws inspiration from the theories of geopolitical luminaries like Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan and Nicholas Spykman, accentuates the centrality of strategically pivotal geographic regions in attaining global dominance.

A cornerstone of the evolving geopolitical landscape is the emergence of the great land powers China, Russia and Germany within the confines of Eurasia. This triad, characterized by its complementary nature, has the potential to shift global equilibrium. Each member brings unique strengths to the table, with China investing extensively in infrastructure, Russia harnessing its abundant natural resources and Germany contributing its advanced technological prowess.

The implications of this triad’s rise challenge the established order and introduce an additional layer of complexity to traditional geopolitical equations. In the post-Cold War era, a noticeable transition has taken place, moving away from purely ideological frameworks toward a heightened emphasis on practical and shrewd considerations of geopolitics.

Against this backdrop, Greece emerges as a historic crossroads, undeniably capturing the attention of global powers throughout the ages. China’s strategic investment in the port of Piraeus underscores Greece’s contemporary significance.

As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Turkiye introduces a complex layer of intricacy and complexity with its shifting alliances and ambitions. This adds further intricacy to an already fluid and multifaceted situation. In this context, the port city of Alexandroupolis, close to the land border with Turkiye and historically positioned as a vital strategic hub, assumes renewed importance.

Alexandroupolis offers distinct advantages that could alleviate the strategic constraints caused by Turkiye’s control of the Bosphorus and Russian dominance in the Black Sea. The city’s port and well-developed transportation infrastructure, including railways and motorways, position it as a crucial player in facilitating trade routes to the northern Baltic states and Central/Western Europe. This establishes Alexandroupolis as a pivotal point for reshaping the Eurasian landscape and functioning as a regional transit trade hub. By lessening reliance on unpredictable Russian and Turkish influences, its strategic location also enables it to drive energy supply diversification in the region and emerge as a vital entry point to Europe.

The triad formed by Crete, Cyprus and Alexandroupolis becomes a gateway to the southern circle of Eurasia. Its strategic significance for Mediterranean security and NATO’s southern flank should not be underestimated or overlooked. Amid these geopolitical shifts, history offers a crucial and essential guidepost, beckoning us to navigate this evolving landscape with foresight and strategic acumen.

The question looms: Will we seize the exceptional opportunities presented by key strategic locations like Alexandroupolis, or will we falter in the face of history’s challenges? As the tides of geopolitics continue to ebb and flow, the answer lies in our ability to adapt, innovate and embrace the opportunities of this profoundly new era.

• Dr. Fotios Moustakis is Associate Professor and Director of the Dartmouth Centre for Sea Power and Strategy, University of Plymouth. Dr. Georgios Mourtos is an Honorary Professor in Strategic Studies at the University of Plymouth.