As COP29 approaches, is there still any hope of avoiding a climate catastrophe?

When the world’s climate negotiators gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 11 for the start of the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference, COP29, they will have little to show for the previous 28 rounds of negotiations and agreements, which have failed to deliver significant results as carbon emissions continue to rise.

Emission levels are now so high, with no signs of easing, and the state of the global climate so dire that the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, which oversees the negotiations, issued a warning a few days ago that global warming will continue to rise sharply for many years to come.

A report by the World Meteorological Organization backed up this assertion. It found that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2023, and issued a stark warning that this means the world is bound to experience rising temperatures in the years ahead.

The organization attributed the increase in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to a number of factors, including large wildfires that might have reduced the ability of forests to absorb carbon, and “stubbornly high” emissions caused by human activity. It said carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere at the fastest rate in human history, and increased by more than 10 percent in the past two decades alone.

So stark and clear was the data that the organization needed to say little more, but its secretary-general did warn that with each passing year the world seems to be setting new records for carbon emissions despite the multitude of promises and commitments at every climate change conference for more than 20 years.

The report said that the last time the planet experienced a comparable concentration of carbon dioxide was about 3 to 5 million years ago, when average temperatures were 2 to 3 degrees Celsius warmer and sea levels 10 to 20 meters higher.

This was just the latest reality check for the world; a report by the UN Environment Programme had already declared that we are heading for temperature rises “far above” the goals set by the 2016 Paris Agreement unless countries start to deliver more than they have promised.

Despite this faint glimmer of hope in the UNEP’s assessment if countries take decisive action, it is evident that whatever happens in Baku this month, or at subsequent gatherings, the world is now destined to endure severe heatwaves and all other known and unknown forms of extreme weather events for a very long period of time.

The blame for this lies at the doorsteps of those developed countries that continue to miss their own targets and commitments on emissions, and fail to honor pledges to provide much-needed financial and technical assistance to developing nations to help them keep their emissions in check.

If climate change denier Donald Trump is elected as US president this week, we can say goodbye to any hope of salvaging the situation.

Ranvir S. Nayar

Certainly, there is some semblance of progress at each successive COP, but it is simply too little and, of course, too late to make a real difference to carbon emissions. For example, during COP28 in Dubai last year, wealthy countries said they would stump up money to help the least-developed countries but there was no timeline for when this would happens or details of where the funding would come from, in terms of contributions by individual nations.

There was also an agreement to transition away from fossil fuels, and for governments to enhance their commitments to reducing emissions. Again, these pledges came without any details of who would do what or when and, most importantly, what recourse would be available in cases where nations falter on meeting commitments.

Despite the doom and gloom, one glimmer of hope might be emerging in Europe. According to estimates revealed this week, carbon emissions in the EU region have declined by 8 percent this year and by about 37 percent compared with the 1990 levels used by the EU as a reference point.

Of all rich nations, therefore, those in the EU are the only ones that have made significant progress in curbing emissions. Other countries could still follow suit but the signs of this happening do not look promising.

If climate change denier Donald Trump is elected as US president this week, we can say goodbye to any hope of salvaging the situation.

Despite this somber reality, developing nations need to take whatever proactive action they can to curb emissions to whatever extent is possible. There might not be a lot they can achieve without financial and technical support, but given the speed with which the world is hurtling toward catastrophe, every little action that can apply a brake that reduces the speed of the juggernaut is welcome.

As such, the developing world would do better to follow the example of the EU rather than the flawed approaches of the US and other rich countries to climate action.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is the managing editor of Media India Group and founder-director of the Europe India Foundation for Excellence.