US needs to realize the GCC game rules have changed

During my recent travel throughout the GCC, I was struck by conspicuous expressions of frustration toward the US. This is despite the manifold interconnections: a high proportion of Gulf citizens receive their higher education in the US, and there are intimate associations through travel, business, and social connections.

Speaking to seasoned Arab politicians and ordinary citizens, I noted a perception that US Middle East policy had lost its way, defined by condescending out-of-touch statements and an inability to deliver on signed agreements. The bitterly partisan state of Washington politics means that any deals may be torn up as a matter of principle whenever a different president comes into office.

We are seeing a major rebalancing of this relationship as GCC states relentlessly prioritize their own strategic interests. The West is no longer in a position to simply make demands. When it has tried to, it has frequently ended up with egg on its face: regional states maintain their positions until the US makes a humiliating climbdown and comes running back, grudgingly apologizing for its capricious behavior.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, following his recent meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, asserted that Saudi Arabia did not respond to pressure when it came to human rights and other policy decisions, while adding: “We are working to find a mechanism that enables us to work together, and the partnership with Washington is still strong.”

After the White House’s unfulfilled threats of retaliation when the Saudi-led OPEC+ oil alliance cut production last autumn, the Kingdom implemented further cuts this month with scarcely a whimper from the West.

People can sympathize with what has occurred in Ukraine, but there is resentment about the manner in which the world is exhorted to unite in lockstep behind the West in a way that never occurred for conflicts in Palestine, Syria, Libya and Yemen. When Gulf states were hit with missile and drone strikes by Iran-made munitions, where was the readiness to reciprocate?

According to the rhetoric of US officials, ties with GCC states are a top foreign policy priority. So why did it take the US more than two years to name a full-time ambassador to Riyadh?

Baria Alamuddin

Underneath all this, the US relationship with the GCC region continues to be built on a broad range of shared interests: the $40 billion in Saudi-American bilateral annual trade supports about 165,000 US jobs, and tens of thousands of Americans live in the region. The Gulf states regularly hold joint military exercises with the US. Airlines Riyadh Air and Saudia have signed $37 billion in deals to purchase 121 Boeing aircraft for their fleets.

According to the rhetoric of US officials, ties with GCC states are a top foreign policy priority. So why did it take the US more than two years to name a full-time ambassador to Riyadh? Ratification of Michael Ratney’s appointment came only after the China-brokered Iran-Saudi deal appeared to catch America completely by surprise. Indeed, Blinken’s latest visit is thought to have taken place only after months of efforts to reset the relationship after contacts had plunged to an absolute low.

US foreign policy nowadays is defined by a complete absence of coherent strategy. Even on core policies such as Ukraine and Taiwan, Washington has flipflopped over what kind of military assistance to send, and to what extent it’s willing to risk escalating superpower tensions.

The constant telegraphing by US officials of their obsession about an Israel-Saudi normalization deal is one indicator of confused priorities — and at the worst possible time, given the increasingly far-right religious nationalist trajectory of the Netanyahu regime. Why is Joe Biden throwing around incentives and concessions for a measure that would bring no direct benefit for US citizens, aside from the prospect that Biden could possibly notch this up as a victory in the 2024 elections?

Newly revealed US talks with Iran are a further symptom of these confused policies, with Tehran apparently to be rewarded for indefinitely maintaining its nuclear program at just a few days away from military breakout capacity — as if such a scenario lets us all feel safe! 

Not so long ago, the US occupied a unique position as the GCC’s principal strategic ally and security guarantor. Nations such as China and Russia were scarcely on the GCC’s radar. The calculated upgrading of relations with Beijing, New Delhi and Moscow represents a balanced recalibration of interests, to compensate for Washington’s dizzying policy U-turns and inability to sustain focus on priority issues. GCC officials have signaled their openness to looking more to European partners for arms, security and infrastructure deals, due to a perception of greater trust and reliability. America is the net loser in all this.

Newly revealed US talks with Iran are a further symptom of these confused policies, with Tehran apparently to be rewarded for indefinitely maintaining its nuclear program at just a few days away from military breakout capacity — as if such a scenario lets us all feel safe! 

Baria Alamuddin

With Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussing an ambitious array of deals in Paris, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal visiting Tehran, we are witnessing a newly assertive GCC approach in determinedly pursuing its interests around the world. By neutralizing Tehran as a strategic threat, the region can prioritize industry, education, technology and culture — putting the interests of citizens first.

The Arab world of 2023 is manifestly not that of just 10 or 20 years ago. With a powerful gust of fresh air, a new generation has swept into the corridors of power and society at large — a generation that the West has largely failed to understand or appreciate.

Nowhere has transformed faster than Saudi Arabia, which has opened itself up to tourism and cultural pursuits, while embarking on an ambitious economic agenda. I am elated to see how the outlook and status of women has transformed beyond all recognition. The UAE and Qatar continue to punch above their weight on the global stage. Bahrain continues to be a radiant oasis for business, culture, and the arts. Oman has quietly become a vital conduit for negotiations and peace efforts. Kuwait has made impressive investments in renewable energy, entrepreneurship and infrastructure.

American diplomats struggle to realize that this isn’t the same region they engaged with in the past. The rules of the game have fundamentally changed. The region is simply waiting for Western diplomacy to catch up.

• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.