New uprising will hurt Netanyahu, Abbas

It was perhaps inevitable that the situation in the West Bank and the old city of Jerusalem would deteriorate quickly; raising questions among Palestinians and Israelis alike whether a third intifada was in the making.
Daily provocations of worshippers in Al-Aqsa Mosque by radical Jewish settlers and right-wing Israeli officials have been going on for months even when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured the world that his government was not about to change the status of Muslim shrines in the Noble Sanctuary. In response to these provocations Palestinians rallied to defend the mosque and clashed with Israeli soldiers who used brutal force to quell them. It was a matter of time before violence erupted and people were killed on both sides. And as if Netanyahu wanted things to boil over he resorted to collective punishment; banning Palestinians from entering the holy city for two days and ordering his troops to use whatever means to confront what he called “Palestinians terrorism.”
The stage is set for a new intifada, whether Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Netanyahu wanted it or not. On the ground the ingredients for a new uprising are there; economic stagnation, political deadlock and public despair. Under Netanyahu, the peace process is comatose while the most extreme government in Israel’s history is pushing through with plans to empty East Jerusalem of its Arab residents and partition the West Bank by building walls, highways and fattening settlements. It is an understatement to say that the two-state solution is dead. In the absence of an effective US role, Netanyahu is changing the status quo of both East Jerusalem and what remains of the West Bank. And why not? There is no one to stop him.
At the UN podium last week, the two men had little to say about the prospects of a peaceful settlement. Abbas promised a bombshell speech but was careful not to paint himself into a corner. He announced that the PA was no longer bound by the commitments and obligations of the Oslo accords. He called for international protection of his people and asked Israel to assume its responsibilities as an occupation power. But it was all rhetoric. He stopped short of disbanding the PA and ending security coordination with the Israeli authorities.
In response Netanyahu, after dedicating two-third of his speech to criticizing the Iran nuclear deal, called on Abbas not to walk away, and to join him in unconditional talks at anytime. But it was clear that his intentions were not sincere. Unconditional talks are a waste of time and in effect they unravel all previous understandings, road maps and agendas. Netanyahu will not pick up from where previous talks had ended. For him the process of judaizing Arab East Jerusalem and forcing a new reality in the West Bank will continue no matter what. Even his offer of an economic peace to the Palestinians has turned out to be a lie.
But the political deadlock is dangerous for both Israel and Abbas. Israel ignores the fact that it will end up being responsible for over 2.7 million Palestinians in the West Bank alone. By confiscating over 50 percent of that territory it is turning the area into a large prison through a series of Bantustans and effectively declaring Israel an apartheid state. The cost of swallowing Palestinian lands will be hefty. It will threaten the very nature of the Israeli state and cast doubts about its ability to survive in the future.
For Abbas the current situation has become untenable. His PA has no real authority and it is turning into an Israeli proxy to keep the peace and prevent Palestinians from rebelling. Furthermore, Fatah, is witnessing an internal rebellion against the old guards who have been in charge for decades. Younger leadership is emerging; one that rejects Oslo and blames it for the catastrophic state that the Palestinians find themselves in today.
As Israel pushes to isolate East Jerusalem from the West Bank and radical Jews continue to provoke Palestinians in Al-Aqsa compound the spark for a new uprising will continue to flicker. Efforts to end the conflict with Hamas and implement national reconciliation have failed. Israel, on the other hand, is not giving the Palestinian leadership anything to hang on to. Netanyahu has promised to respond to a new intifada in the same way that Israel, under the late Ariel Sharon, dealt with the Aqsa uprising in 2000; by conquering the West Bank and punishing the Palestinian leadership which he accuses of inciting violence.
The recipe for disaster in the West Bank is there. Unfortunately, the Palestinians have no expectations from the international community or the Arab world. The current crises in the region have cost the Palestinians dearly and a third intifada is all they have left.