Lebanese must seize this opportunity for change

My first op-ed of last year was titled “Change in Syria could be the region's black swan event of 2024.” The year ended with this change happening and Bashar Assad being removed from power. My conclusion to that article of 12 months ago was that such an event “could change the face of the Middle East in a manner unseen since the time of decolonization and independence.”

There has indeed been a realignment of interests in the Middle East that might bring surprises and new alliances. Syria’s historical central role in the region will bring this forward. It is also a new page for Lebanon. During recent years, it has been very clear that the Lebanese file had been put aside while Syria was in turmoil. As various forces were battling on the ground in Syria toward an unknown outcome, Lebanon was not worth the investment. There was no point, beyond some international diplomatic patch-ups, in a strong commitment to Lebanon before Damascus became stable again. Lebanon was secondary.

Damascus is now on this new path. In short, Tehran will no longer be able to use Syria to extend its influence both militarily and politically to Lebanon and beyond. This is what the Assad regime had bargained with Iran since the early 1980s, by being its logistical Arabic extension. But today’s change comes with a new balance of power and influence. It still has a tough road ahead with its domestic issues and a new regional role to be determined.

We can nevertheless rightly start to ask how this will impact Lebanon. How will Beirut live through this change? Will it bring forward true change or will it be more of the same under a new banner? The answers will not only come from geopolitical deal-making, but they are also clearly in the hands of the Lebanese.

The early signs are not encouraging. With losses and wins, the Lebanese old guard of politicians are ready to reboot their political leverage through the road they know best, Damascus. Obviously, Hezbollah is on the defensive and cornered politically and militarily. It has a diminished, nonrenewable stock of weapons after being hit severely by Israel. Yet, it will not be an easy way forward.

It is time for a real and complete change, which today can only be brought forward with a new federal system. Most pundits loyal to the old guard (from all sides) have described federalism as the beginning of a new civil war or a plan for secession. It is, in reality, the opposite and one of the best options for keeping Lebanon united and safe. There is no better way to bring stability than by giving each community more freedom in what matters to them.

We need to reduce fear and mitigate greed. And federalism is the best way to achieve both. Fear and greed are what puts everything at risk. It is time to choose a political system that cancels both. Federalism, by giving power to each community, would break Lebanon free of this old dynamic.

There is no better way to bring stability than by giving each community more freedom in what matters to them.

Khaled Abou Zahr

Nothing on the ground must be left to threaten communities, so the surrender of Hezbollah’s arsenal should be a necessity. This is the only way to give the initial green light for the respect of the single most important institution today, the Lebanese Armed Forces. It urgently needs to assume its true role for the sake of the country. Subsequently, there is an urgent need to establish strong stability without dismantling existing institutions, despite their weaknesses, while simultaneously pursuing a complete overhaul.

We now know that history never ends. And in the Middle East, reversals can happen and what has been done can be undone, especially in volatile situations. This also applies to Syria. While leaving the Syrian people to decide their own future, it is high time to delink and de-risk both files. We now need to choose Lebanon and avoid inviting too much influence from Syria. We need positive and peaceful bilateral relations. However, we do not want the political fate of the country to be the result of a balancing act between regional influences.

I do not wish to be aligned with a politician just because we are from the same group. I want to align with a politician who brings a true vision for the country and is capable of executing it. By putting greed and fear aside, we give a new generation a chance to see this type of leadership, not simply a geopolitical balancing act that brings forward the good dealmaker versus the solid country-builder.

What we fail to understand is that change in the Levant is often out of the box; different from what analysts were expecting. Lebanon, because of its constant turmoil, seems adapted to this change. Yet, as we can all notice the beginnings of a new battle for extreme transformation, I do not know which way it will go. But I am certain that, short of a new political pact built on a new system such as federalism, the risks of slipping into even more chaos, such as the ones that we witnessed in the times of “decolonization and independence,” are real.

I nevertheless know that, to avoid the cycles of assassinations or worse that this phase could bring, the Lebanese people need to stick together across all religions and put forward a viable political solution before one is imposed on them.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.