Iran’s best route to prosperity, security is through the Gulf

US Vice President J.D. Vance was this week asked about the $300 billion fund Washington will reportedly provide for Iran’s postwar reconstruction as part of the deal the two countries have agreed. Vance replied that this is the sort of fund the Iranians “could” have access to as long as they “honor their end of the obligation,” while adding that it would be financed by the “Gulf coast coalition.” What does that mean? The US destroys Iran and then compels the Gulf countries to foot the bill?

During a meeting between President Donald Trump and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, the latter was asked about this issue. He replied that the main concern was stopping the war, not economic issues. But he added there would be “huge” investment opportunities once the war is over.

Both the US and the Gulf want the war to end, but the last thing the Gulf wants is a neighbor that acts like a hegemon and blackmails them. It is in the interest of the Gulf that Iran becomes a prosperous country. Unlike Israel, which wants to dismember Iran, the Gulf states want Iran to be a unified and functioning country. They know that problems in Iran can have a spillover effect on their shores.

The question is: What does Iran want after this war? How does it perceive its relationship with its Gulf neighbors? I can tell you now that the Gulf will not put a penny into Iran if they still perceive the Islamic Republic as a threat.

I once visited Iran’s cultural advisory in Beirut. I met the person in charge. He told me that the Americans should realize they would be much better off allying themselves with Iran rather than the Arab Gulf. He started boasting about how Iranians are superior to Arabs. He gave an example, saying that if all Iranians were to leave Austria, there would be no doctors left in Vienna. My reply to him was that it would be better for Iran to be friends with its Arab neighbors and leave the Americans aside. He did not like this answer.

The Gulf states want Iran to be a unified and functioning country. They know problems in Iran can spill over to their shores

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The Iranians should understand that this Persian supremacist mentality will harm them. If the Iranians think that, by the end of the war, they will have the US’ acquiescence to establish themselves as a regional hegemon and extort protection money from the Gulf, they are wrong. They would be inviting the Gulf to deepen its relations with the US.

This might be exactly what the Americans want: to keep the Iranian scarecrow and the perception that the US is needed to ensure Gulf security. This would definitely not be a solution for Iran. This would, in fact, be a trap set for Iran by the Americans, using the Gulf and the proposed $300 billion fund as bait. The solution for Iran is to mend its relations with the Gulf — and the starting point for that is to cease being a threat.

I do not know where the $300 billion figure came from. Is it based on a proper assessment of the destruction of Iran’s infrastructure? Does it include the funds needed to jumpstart the economy? Or is it just a number the Iranians came up with out of thin air? At this stage, we do not know. However, Iran will not get a penny from the Gulf unless it solves the outstanding security issues.

On this, both parties have to be reasonable. Iran will not give up its deterrence capabilities; hence, it will not give up its ballistic missile arsenal. This war has shown that it needs to protect itself from Israeli and American aggression. However, the Gulf states need to make sure that, in future, those missiles will not be used against them.

The solution for Iran is to mend its relations with the Gulf — and the starting point for that is to cease being a threat

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

There have been reports of a proposed nonaggression treaty with Iran similar to the 1975 Helsinki Accords between East and West during the Cold War. This would provide structured security guarantees and establish conflict-prevention mechanisms. To work, any such agreement should make sure that Iran does not target the Gulf states. On the other hand, Iran should be given guarantees that the Gulf states are not used as a platform to launch attacks on its territory. It is still just an idea, a raw concept. However, for it to become a reality, there is one big issue that Iran needs to solve: its network of proxies.

Even if Iran commits that its proxies will not target the Gulf states, that will not be enough. Iran should understand that the region will not have stability as long as various states are used by armed groups that take their orders from a foreign country. Iran should work with the Gulf states, mainly Saudi Arabia, on the issue of its proxies.

Tehran should find a solution that defangs these proxies under a comprehensive political process. It should ensure that they do not threaten their neighbors. The proxies have partly an Iranian agenda and partly a domestic one. Each proxy should be discussed separately. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. However, Iran should be willing to discuss everything with its neighbors.

Iran should also realize that a regional security arrangement is far more beneficial than a set of proxies over which it does not have full control. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has already announced that a cooperation framework is taking shape. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan are set to be part of it, while Iran could join after the war. Iran is at a crossroads. However, it should understand that the route to prosperity and security is through a comprehensive deal with the Gulf.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.