BEIRUT: Israeli evacuation warnings spread deeper into southern Lebanon on Tuesday as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to escalate military operations against Hezbollah despite a fragile ceasefire that has failed to halt near-daily exchanges of fire.
The Israeli military ordered residents of the southern city of Nabatiyeh to immediately evacuate ahead of expected strikes, signalling an expansion of the conflict beyond the border belt already devastated by months of fighting.
“For your safety, you must evacuate your homes immediately and move north of the Zahrani River. Anyone who is near Hezbollah members, facilities or military equipment is putting their life at risk,” Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee wrote in a post on X.
The warning came a day after Israeli warplanes intensified strikes across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, hitting towns near Tyre and killing at least three people in separate attacks, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Netanyahu said he had ordered the military to deepen the offensive in an effort to “crush” Hezbollah, while acknowledging that the group’s growing use of fiber-optic drones had created new battlefield challenges for Israeli forces.
The escalation comes as Washington and Tehran attempt to finalize the terms of a broader agreement aimed at containing regional conflict — negotiations that could also shape the future of the Lebanon front, where Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement have been at war since March 2.
Despite a ceasefire that formally came into effect on April 17, hostilities have continued almost daily. Israel issued evacuation orders for 10 villages on Monday, accusing Hezbollah of violating the truce.
“In light of Hezbollah's violation of the ceasefire agreement, the Israel Defense Forces are compelled to operate against it with force,” Adraee said.
Hezbollah later announced that it had targeted three Israeli barracks and a military position in northern Israel “in response to the violation of the ceasefire.”
Israel and Hezbollah are now locked in a grinding campaign of pressure and counterpressure across southern Lebanon — a landscape increasingly emptied of both people and buildings south of the Litani River.
But the destruction is no longer confined to the border strip. Israeli firepower is steadily moving northward, widening the devastation and deepening fears that the war is entering an even more dangerous phase.
A damaged mosque is seen next of the destroyed Hezbollah paramedic center, right, which was hit in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday in the village of Maashouk, southern Lebanon, on May 20, 2026. (AP photo)
On the battlefield, the imbalance between the two sides is stark. Israel dominates the skies with overwhelming air power, surveillance and intelligence capabilities.
Hezbollah, by contrast, has shifted toward smaller, elusive operations designed not to hold territory but to inflict pain, prolong the conflict and force Israel into a costly war of attrition.
Yet despite the asymmetry, the strategy may be having an effect.
The signs can be seen in a series of recent incidents. A Hezbollah fighter reportedly infiltrated the area around a church north of Qawzah — a town just 2.5 kilometers from the Israeli border that Israeli media say has been under full Israeli control for more than a month.
According to reports, he engaged soldiers from the Israeli army’s 551st Brigade inside the buffer zone, killed a major at close range and disappeared before troops could track him down.
Days earlier, a Hezbollah drone targeted the commander of the Israeli army’s 401st Armored Brigade in the town of Debel.
Elsewhere across the south, Hezbollah fighters carrying out similar operations have managed to withdraw through pre-secured escape routes despite Israel’s vast aerial surveillance network.
Taken together, the incidents point to a significant evolution in Hezbollah’s tactics compared with past confrontations.
Hezbollah members take part in a military exercise during a media tour organized for the occasion of Resistance and Liberation Day, in Aaramta, Lebanon May 21, 2023. (REUTERS)
The group and its supporters describe the strategy as an attempt to “bleed the enemy and impose losses heavy enough to force a withdrawal from the areas it has pushed into in southern Lebanon — as happened before the liberation of the south in 2000.”
Unlike previous wars, Hezbollah has remained silent about its own casualties, believed to number in the hundreds.
In earlier conflicts, the group routinely announced its losses and publicly commemorated dead fighters. This time, it has revealed almost nothing — not about its casualties, its deployments or even the methods it is using on the battlefield.
What is visible, however, is a sharp reduction in the guided missiles once used to repel Israeli advances and in the rocket barrages that previously targeted northern Israeli settlements and areas deep inside Israel.
Instead, Hezbollah is increasingly relying, according to a Lebanese military source, “on individuals or small teams able to reach the units dug in across the south, lay ambushes and turn Israeli soldiers into isolated targets — an adaptation to the terrain and to whatever weapons are at hand.”
In previous wars, Hezbollah fighters often mounted short-range rocket launchers onto open pickup trucks, hiding them inside covered garages. When the moment came, they would briefly open the garage door, roll out the launcher, fire a salvo and conceal it again within seconds.
That tactic is now largely obsolete.
Israeli surveillance technology has become far more sophisticated. Satellites, thermal balloons equipped with high-resolution long-range cameras and drones can identify launch sites within minutes.
An Israeli Air Force AH-64 Apache attack helicopter fires flares while flying along the border between northern Israel and southern Lebanon on April 12, 2026. (AFP)
he retaliation that follows is devastating, often flattening entire homes and killing everyone inside.
The central question now is whether Hezbollah’s updated version of 1990s-style guerrilla warfare can realistically force Israel out of southern Lebanon when Israel retains overwhelming superiority in technology, intelligence and firepower — alongside a scorched-earth strategy that appears aimed at ensuring Hezbollah no longer exists along Israel’s northern frontier.
A Lebanese military source told Arab News that Hezbollah’s recent deployment of fiber-optic FPV drones has altered the character of the war.
“As long as Israel has no answer for them, Hezbollah will keep draining the enemy,” the source said.
But the source warned that Israel’s response would likely become even more destructive.
“Israel, in turn, will grow wary of pushing in on the ground — and will reach instead for killing and destruction of every kind to wear down the group and the community around it.”
“The outcome,” the source added, “is the ruin of southern Lebanon.”
People clear debris at the site of an overnight Israeli strike in the southern city of Tyre, Lebanon, on May 23, 2026. (Reuters)
From the Israeli perspective, ongoing strikes are intended to prevent Hezbollah from re-entrenching itself along the border and to shield northern Israeli communities from future attacks.
Israeli frustration is also increasingly directed at Beirut itself, driven by the belief that the Lebanese state has failed to enforce the principle that the monopoly on armed force should rest under state authority.
Israeli officials argue that efforts to disarm Hezbollah have been slow, partial and politically constrained, while Hezbollah insists that disarmament north of the Litani River is not on the table and accuses Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement.
For Lebanon, the issue remains deeply entangled with questions of sovereignty, sectarian balance and fears that any attempt to forcibly confront Hezbollah could trigger internal unrest or wider escalation.
The war is unfolding at a particularly sensitive regional moment.
Attention is focused on talks underway in Islamabad between Iran and the US, and whether they produce a broader regional understanding or push the region closer to confrontation.
Lebanon finds itself at the center of those tensions — caught between escalating Israeli military pressure and diplomatic efforts expected later this month, when Israeli and Lebanese officials are due to meet directly at the Pentagon before a broader political track opens in early June.
Ahead of those talks, the Israeli army issued fresh evacuation warnings to residents in dozens of villages north of the Litani River before launching heavy bombardments.
Black smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike which reportedly hit a gas station in the village of al-Mansouri, in the Tyre district of southern Lebanon on May 25, 2026. (AFP)
Since March 2, civilian casualties have climbed to more than 3,120 dead and over 9,500 wounded.
Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that “Hezbollah is facing difficulties in rebuilding its ranks, and there is growing pressure behind the scenes on the party to reach a ceasefire at almost any cost.”
Citing an Israeli source, the report added: “Entire areas in southern Lebanon look as though they have been struck by an earthquake.
“The scale of destruction in the Shiite villages is enormous, and the damage inflicted on infrastructure and homes is far deeper than Hezbollah is willing to acknowledge, raising the prospect of a threat to Hezbollah from within the Shiite community itself.”
Retired Maj. Gen. Abdul Rahman Chehaitli, the former Lebanese government representative to UNIFIL, said Israel’s overwhelming military advantage has left little room for any meaningful balance of power.
“Israel’s military superiority is not matched by any corresponding superiority capable of establishing a balance, even within the Arab region,” he told Arab News.
Still, he argued that Hezbollah’s guerrilla tactics continue to complicate Israel’s military objectives.
Hezbollah members take part in a military exercise during a media tour organized for the occasion of Resistance and Liberation Day, in Aaramta, Lebanon May 21, 2023. (REUTERS)
“The guerrilla tactics adopted by Hezbollah prevent the Israeli army from holding territory, keeping it on constant alert and making it unable to control the land easily,” he said.
“Hezbollah, for its part, will not stop regardless of its losses, because its fighters seek martyrdom. Consequently, the greatest loser in such confrontations, and the one that will pay the price, is the people through their property and lives, as well as the Lebanese state.”
Chehaitli said Hezbollah’s own supporters are bearing the brunt of the war.
“Those currently paying the price are Hezbollah’s support base. The Israelis are persisting in killing these civilians in order to carry out their destructive objectives and obtain what they want,” he said.
But he insisted that neither side could achieve a decisive military solution.
“The solution will not be military for either side. Both parties are determined to continue pursuing their respective strategies, and as long as there is occupation, there will be resistance.
“The solution lies with the Lebanese state and through negotiation.”
Israel, however, continues to reject any arrangement that would allow Hezbollah to maintain a presence in southern Lebanon, even politically.
Beirut, meanwhile, insists on a full ceasefire, a complete Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanese territory, the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of displaced civilians and the reconstruction of devastated villages.
Negotiations held in Washington during a third round of talks resulted in a 45-day extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
In the presence of the ambassadors of Israel and Lebanon in Washington, DC, President Donald Trump (C) announces on April 23, 2026 that the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has been extended by three weeks amid US-brokered peace talks. (AFP)
But violations by both sides have continued, and more than 400 people have reportedly been killed since the truce formally came into effect.
Ali Abbas Hamieh, a researcher in strategic and military affairs, argued that Israel’s intensified attacks on civilian areas reflected frustration rather than military success.
“Israel is resorting to intensifying attacks on civilians because it is unable to achieve anything on the battlefield,” he told Arab News. “In response, Hezbollah has adopted new tactics and increased the frequency of its strikes.”
He added: “Not responding means defeat, while responding means a loss for the Israelis.”
On the broader strategic picture, Hamieh argued that Hezbollah’s military leverage should strengthen Lebanon’s negotiating position.
“The Israeli side uses American leverage, so why should the Lebanese state not use Hezbollah’s strength in negotiations?” he said.
“It is true that the Lebanese state does not agree to be dragged by Hezbollah into a war it does not want, and, indeed, the government is not an agent, but the Lebanese state should not fall in line with external demands.”
Hamieh added: “The Israelis used to say that the resistance had ended with the end of the previous war, yet it has proven that it still exists, that its capabilities are stronger, and that it is capable of changing the equation.”
Publicly, Hezbollah continues to project confidence, insisting the situation remains under control.
Hezbollah members take part in a military exercise during a media tour organized for the occasion of Resistance and Liberation Day, in Aaramta, Lebanon May 21, 2023. REUTERS/File photo)
But frustration is mounting among its political opponents inside Lebanon, many of whom believe each additional day of fighting deepens the country’s destruction while offering little prospect of a strategic breakthrough.
According to the Lebanese military source, Hezbollah has radically reshaped its frontline structure.
“Among the military changes Hezbollah has adopted is reducing the size of its forward combat units,” the source said.
“They have become small, highly mobile groups operating independently and in a decentralized manner, never remaining in a single position.”
The goal, the source explained, is no longer necessarily to defend individual villages but to slow Israeli advances through continuous harassment, ambushes and attritional warfare.
“The objective is not so much to defend any particular village as it is to inflict the greatest possible losses on the advancing Israeli forces, hinder their progress, and keep them occupied through scattered and repeated combat skirmishes by setting up ambushes.”
Israeli military vehicles prepare to move to southern Lebanon in this photo taken on March 30, 2026, as Israeli forces launched a new campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah. (AFP)
Critics of Hezbollah, however, argue that Israel’s scorched-earth campaign could ultimately succeed in creating the buffer zone it seeks in southern Lebanon.
Retired Brig. Gen. Khalil Al-Gemayel, former commander of the South Litani sector and the southern Lebanese region, said Hezbollah’s strategy may hurt Israeli forces but is unlikely to force a withdrawal.
“Hezbollah’s strategy is damaging to the Israeli army, but it will not lead to its withdrawal from the south,” he told Arab News.
“In previous confrontations, the Israelis always relied on short wars lasting only a few days or weeks. However, after the Gaza war, the Israelis now consider their war existential, and consequently, they have resorted to widespread destruction, even if it requires eliminating civilians.”
He warned that the scale of destruction is expanding rapidly beyond the border zone.
“Anything that moves has become a target,” he said.
“The destruction currently extends beyond the Litani River into the heart of the south, affecting more than 93 villages, and the danger is spreading to the Sidon area.”
Mourners grieve over the bodies of relatives who were killed two days before by Israeli airstrikes in the southern village of Deir Qanoun al-Nahr, at the morgue ahead of the funeral procession in the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, on May 21, 2026. (AP Photo)
Al-Gemayel said Israel’s strategy now appears focused on territorial consolidation despite ongoing military losses and growing domestic pressure.
“Israel is pursuing a gradual, incremental strategy, and the losses it sustains have not deterred it, despite mounting internal pressure over the past two and a half years,” he said.
“In this context, Hezbollah’s assumption that inflicting heavy casualties on the enemy would force a withdrawal has proven ineffective.”
He argued that Hezbollah itself has suffered severe setbacks.
“Hezbollah has suffered extremely severe blows affecting both its military structure and arsenal, while also finding itself increasingly besieged,” he said.
“Even its geographic link to Iran has been severed, and support for the Houthis and Hamas has effectively come to a halt.”
A man stands on the roof of a destroyed building that was hit in an Israeli airstrike in Burj al-Shemali village near the southern port city of Tyre, Lebanon, on May 26, 2026. (AP Photo)
Al-Gemayel also questioned the long-term effectiveness of Hezbollah’s FPV drone campaign.
“The weapon that once posed a serious threat to Israel is no longer available, and the drones Hezbollah developed are unable to penetrate border areas,” he said.
“Finding a solution to the threat posed by FPV drones is only a matter of time.
“Moreover, this capability itself will eventually be exhausted, because Hezbollah is not Ukraine: it is besieged and unable to import weapons. It is fighting with the resources currently at its disposal until countermeasures are found.”
At the same time, he acknowledged that Israeli forces are also under strain.
“The Israeli army has also sustained losses,” he said.
“It is grappling with a state of uncertainty that has prompted it to limit its operations, consolidate in defensive positions, reduce patrols in rugged terrain and restrict its presence to positions on elevated hills stretching from west to east.”
That reduced presence, he said, has allowed Hezbollah fighters to infiltrate the Yellow Line, though he described such missions as “suicidal incursions.”
“The more Hezbollah succeeds in wearing down the Israeli army, the more aggressively the army retaliates against the Shiite community beyond the Yellow Line,” he said.
“Thus, voices of protest against Hezbollah are beginning to emerge.”
Still, Al-Gemayel argued that Israel cannot ultimately destroy Hezbollah because it is confronting an ideology rather than a conventional military force.
“Israel is fighting an ideology, therefore it cannot eliminate Hezbollah,” he said.
“This reality will only end through a diplomatic solution. Hezbollah will not become a political party unless it is convinced that what it is doing is ineffective and only leads to more human losses.”
He added that Hezbollah’s military leverage “can be used in negotiations with Israel, and it may be used indirectly.”
For now, Hezbollah appears to believe that tensions between Washington and Tehran will eventually end in a broader agreement restoring a regional security umbrella for the group and returning conditions in Lebanon closer to the status quo ante.
One political observer told Arab News that Hezbollah is betting its asymmetric warfare tactics can alter realities on the ground enough to persuade Israeli military leaders to push for a negotiated exit from southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to absorb the human, economic and political cost of the conflict.
