UK bracing for yet another political storm

Is it the end of the road for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer after the poor performance of his party at last week’s local elections?

Less than two years ago, Starmer promised to replace the years of Tory turbulence with competence, stability and growth. But it seems today that neither Britain’s voters nor many of his ministers and backbench MPs are convinced. Labour under Starmer scored a landslide victory in the July 2024 general election, but his leadership style and lack of charisma have not cut it with an impatient electorate that desires instant and radical change.

Last week’s elections delivered a double blow: both to Starmer and the long-established political duopoly that has led the country for the past 100 years. Starmer might even prove to be the last leader to win a general election with an outright majority, as the electorate is showing further evidence of splintering in search of smaller parties.

It was long thought that the UK’s electoral system was more immune to populism than most, but last week’s results showed that British voters are drifting toward the extremes — on the right, Reform UK and its anti-Europe, anti-immigrant populism, and, on the left, the Green Party with its new eco-populism. Their current share of support, if translated into a parliamentary election, would mean the end for Britain’s two-party system dominated by Labour and the Conservatives.

The UK, like elsewhere, should be craving stability and survival amid a complex geopolitical landscape

Mohamed Chebaro

This would not be good news for Starmer, the people or the political system. The UK, like elsewhere, should be craving stability and survival amid a complex geopolitical landscape. There is no time for internal strife and party-political warfare on top of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, which came after the difficult years of the pandemic, and the recent unprecedented strangling of the world’s economy by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestically, societies everywhere are reeling under the pressures of the rising cost of living, increased insecurity and weaponized migration, which are further polarizing populations. The financial problems Labour inherited have limited the government’s maneuverability and added to Starmer’s woes thanks to higher-than-ever care costs and rising health and welfare bills.

Time is running out for Starmer. But also for the UK’s historic two-party system. Starmer’s efforts to steady the ship ahead of Wednesday’s crucial king’s speech — the address that sets out the government’s priorities for the year ahead — is unlikely to change much. Even a reversal of Brexit might not deliver the shock needed to make voters rethink.

Starmer was never a great orator, let alone a charismatic leader, but he was chosen to turn things around for the country after the turbulent Tory years, with the likes of Boris Johnson collapsing trust in politics and Liz Truss nearly collapsing the economy.

There is a norm in the UK that political earthquakes are saved for general elections and that local elections do not bring down prime ministers. But times have changed and maybe the voters are now ready to do away with the century-old Labour-Conservative duopoly.

Last week’s elections delivered change for scores of councils in England and the parliaments of Scotland and Wales. In Scotland, Labour’s weakness enabled the Scottish National Party to extend its 19 years as head of the devolved government in Edinburgh. And Labour lost control of the Welsh Senedd for the first time since devolution took effect in 1999.

Times have changed and maybe the voters are now ready to do away with the Labour-Conservative duopoly

Mohamed Chebaro

However, it is Reform UK’s results that will cause the most consternation and have the greatest adverse impact on the country’s political landscape going forward. Its overall share of the vote remained stable at about 20 percent and that is a grave concern. But its path to power will remain uncertain unless it starts scoring vote shares in the mid-to-high 30s.

But the danger from the populism of Reform is that it is clawing support from both an effectively defunct Conservative Party and the Labour heartland known as the “red wall,” where voters are disappointed by this government’s performance. Meanwhile, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are taking progressive votes away from Labour in key cities and counties like never before.

Yes, there may be many reasons to question Starmer, from his ambiguous approach to key questions to his failure to make the moral case for socialism, as well as his failure to clean up politics. All that against the backdrop of a continued rise in the cost of living. Even his opposition to the US’ war with Iran did not help him, after the so-called abdication of his moral authority in the eyes of some traditional Labour supporters concerning Gaza.

The rancor and hatred for him, however, is alarming and reflects an electorate that is more polarized, impatient and unreasonable than ever. Many believe it is reflective of the political moment, with public opinion magnified by a tech realm that delivers digital consensus over single issues that are then adopted as a trend. It is scary how a negative view of Starmer is shared on both the right and the left, and with equally toxic fervor.

One wonders, after scrolling through social media feeds, if Starmer’s premiership can be saved. He is maybe a leader for another age and, regardless of how well he delivers on stability and growth for the nation, it will not be enough. Once judged in the current court of social media-driven public opinion, there is no going back and Britain should brace itself for yet another period of political instability. His demise as PM could also spell the end of the historic Labour-Conservative duopoly, which has been a steady hand on the tiller for the UK for many years.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy.