The future of jobs is too uncertain to make wrong bets

The future of jobs is an area shrouded in uncertainty, where making the wrong bets could have dire consequences for individuals and, in the long run, entire nations. As societies and economies confront this complex landscape, it is crucial to understand the forces shaping the global labor market so that informed decisions can be made about education, skills development and career paths.

The International Labour Organization’s recent “World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2025” report paints a sobering picture of the global job market. While the unemployment rate has remained steady at 5 percent, this figure does not reveal the massive disparities across regions and demographics. Youth unemployment, for instance, stands at a worrying 12.6 percent, highlighting the challenges facing new entrants to the workforce.

Economic headwinds are further darkening the job market picture. Global growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2024, down from 3.6 percent in 2022, with expectations of continued deceleration. This slowdown, coupled with geopolitical tensions and rising trade protectionism, is creating a perfect storm of uncertainty for job seekers and employers alike.

Technological advancement, often touted as the key to economic growth, presents both opportunities and challenges. The digital revolution is expected to be the most significant trend by 2030, with 60 percent of employers anticipating its impact on their businesses. However, the benefits of this boom are unevenly distributed, deepening existing inequalities.

Across the Arab world, where digital readiness varies widely, the need to invest in digital infrastructure and education has never been more pressing. Indeed, countries everywhere that fail to bridge the digital divide will be at risk of being left behind in the global race for talent and innovation.

The ongoing global shift toward a greener economy offers a glimmer of hope amid the uncertainty. The renewable energy sector has seen impressive growth, with employment rising to 16.2 million in 2023. For resource-rich countries in the Middle East, this transition presents an opportunity to diversify economies and create sustainable jobs.

However, the concentration of green jobs in certain regions — 46 percent of them are located in China — shows that the promise of a fair global distribution of opportunities remains just that. Arab nations must therefore make full use of their natural advantages, such as abundant solar resources, to position themselves as leaders in the green economy.

One of the most pressing challenges in the current job market is the growing mismatch between the skills workers possess and those demanded by employers. The rapid pace of technological change is leaving many traditional skill sets obsolete, while creating demand for new, often highly specialized, professionals.

For most of the past century, science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM, was given priority over the arts. However, many STEM graduates are now finding their work automated before they have even had time to rethink their careers. Tasks that once took weeks of coding can now be performed in minutes, leaving many wondering where they can add value.

A recent report in The Wall Street Journal noted: “Nearly one in four US tech jobs posted so far this year are seeking employees with artificial intelligence skills, job listings data show, as companies in nearly every corner of the economy adjust their recruiting pipelines to embrace the technology.”

Education systems, particularly in developing countries, are struggling to keep pace with these changes. The result is a widening skills gap, or mismatch, that threatens to leave millions of workers behind. In the Arab world, where youth unemployment rates are among the highest globally, addressing this problem is critical to harnessing whatever remains of the region’s demographic dividend.

Finally, despite decades of progress, significant gender gaps in labor force participation persist. Women’s participation remains substantially lower than men’s, particularly in low-income countries. This gender disparity amounts to not just a social injustice but a colossal economic opportunity cost.

Interestingly, recent research suggests that the underrepresentation of women in certain STEM fields may not be driven by discrimination alone. “Talented students of both sexes tend to avoid a career in math or science if they can pursue something else … sex differences in the STEM workforce may largely be a product of sex differences in interests and priorities,” said a recent Wall Street Journal essay.

Many STEM graduates are now finding their work automated before they have even had time to rethink their careers.

Arnab Neil Sengupta

On the upside, although market forces have failed to correct the low pay for care work (which is largely carried out by women), a reversal of fortune cannot be ruled out. Put simply, while AI may soon outperform most humans at most STEM tasks, it looks less likely to replace jobs that need a caring human touch usually provided by women.

Looking to the future, what is clear is that the nature of work itself is evolving. The combined impact of the rise of remote work, the gig economy and AI-driven automation is altering traditional employment models. The workers of the future will need to be nimble, lifelong learners capable of dealing with multiple career transitions.

For policymakers and educational institutions, the challenge is to create systems that make this adaptability easier. This means moving beyond rigid, degree-based models of education toward more flexible approaches that allow for continuous learning and upskilling. By understanding the trends influencing the labor market and making strategic investments in education, technology and sustainable industries, countries can position themselves to lead the future economy.

For the Arab world, with its young, dynamic population and increasing focus on economic diversification, the opportunities are particularly attractive. By eagerly adopting, instead of postponing, digital transformation, embracing the green energy transition and promoting a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, Arab countries can aim to create a future-proof job market.

To sum up, in an age when the future of jobs looks too uncertain to make wrong bets, the safest bet is on the adaptability and resilience of the human spirit. Bold, forward-thinking policies, such as those adopted by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, can prepare workers not just for the jobs of today but also for the careers of tomorrow.

• Arnab Neil Sengupta is a senior editor at Arab News. X: @arnabnsg